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Ralph Wiggum

December 16-17, 2020 Winter Storm

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50 minutes ago, [email protected] said:

On December 14th New Jersey had 4,800  new COVID cases with a population of 9 million, Pennsylvania had 9,500 cases with a population of 13 million, Florida had 8,500 cases with a population of over 21 million.

Florida currently has about 1/2 the COVID cases that the Northeastern US states do.  The recent fatalities mimic the same pattern.  
 

Enjoy Florida!  Restaurants, schools and bars open.   Masks are optional.   Less COVID.

Well the data analyst who was attempting to report the true data was fired. FL is 3rd behind California and Texas for total number of cases in the U.S.

In any case - this looks a bit messy there and here (not rainy season this time of year down there either)!

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh30-30.gif

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Idk if anyone remembers my posts from 2-3 days ago saying the best part of this storm for the city will be the thump. That still holds true now. 
 

Heisy’s call: 

center city: 2–4” followed by sleet then grapple/drizzle mix during dryslot..maybe some bursts of snow at the end that doesn’t amount to much

northeast philly: 3-5” same deal

Good luck down here I’ll be up in Williamsport! 

 

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3k NAM is dreadfully close for Berks and the LV now. Shifted a tad south and a bit east. Keeps the pivot point right around Harrisburg. So Lebanon, Dauphin, Schuylkill counties rake in 2 feet while Berks and Lehigh are fighting the sleet and dry slot. Oh how its going to be so close.

 

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3 hours ago, [email protected] said:

On December 14th New Jersey had 4,800  new COVID cases with a population of 9 million, Pennsylvania had 9,500 cases with a population of 13 million, Florida had 8,500 cases with a population of over 21 million.

Florida currently has about 1/2 the COVID cases that the Northeastern US states do.  The recent fatalities mimic the same pattern.  
 

Enjoy Florida!  Restaurants, schools and bars open.   Masks are optional.   Less COVID.

Do you get your facts from oann?

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24 minutes ago, Newman said:

3k NAM is dreadfully close for Berks and the LV now. Shifted a tad south and a bit east. Keeps the pivot point right around Harrisburg. So Lebanon, Dauphin, Schuylkill counties rake in 2 feet while Berks and Lehigh are fighting the sleet and dry slot. Oh how its going to be so close.

 

Looks south of the valley. Accums in the low 20” range accordin to 3k

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Looking over the NAM, the main lobe of vorticity at h5 was definitely displaced to the SE compared to 12z. May see that shift SE in all models this evening. The mixing/dry slot will continue to be an issue, but any move SE is good for everyone.

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WXSIM for NW Chester County now has 4 hours of snow from 130p to 530p with 2.6" snow / than 7 hours of heavy sleet from 530pm thru 1230am  with 3.2" accumulation and then snow thru 7am with another 4.6" of snow - for a grand snow total of 10.4" - how's that for a nice straight forward concrete recipe!!

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33 minutes ago, Newman said:

3k NAM is dreadfully close for Berks and the LV now. Shifted a tad south and a bit east. Keeps the pivot point right around Harrisburg. So Lebanon, Dauphin, Schuylkill counties rake in 2 feet while Berks and Lehigh are fighting the sleet and dry slot. Oh how its going to be so close.

 

no worry, look at this map from the NAM. Snow tends to follow the geography. Anything East and South of South Mountain will be the tipping point for sleet. RT 78/81  from Allentown to Harrisburg gets crushed. Pottsville area is a good place to be and you are not that far from there. Rt 78/81 has to be closed down with 2-3 feet of snow period. No truck can get through that even with chains.

 

C76B3684-66A1-489E-AE7D-7C16C1820232.thumb.png.8708b2d5138d4f9ceb678aa736d94914.png

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10 minutes ago, Albedoman said:

no worry, look at this map from the NAM. Snow tends to follow the geography. Anything East and South of South Mountain will be the tipping point for sleet. RT 78/81  from Allentown to Harrisburg gets crushed. Pottsville area is a good place to be and you are not that far from there. Rt 78/81 has to be closed down with 2-3 feet of snow period. No truck can get through that even with chains.

 

C76B3684-66A1-489E-AE7D-7C16C1820232.thumb.png.8708b2d5138d4f9ceb678aa736d94914.png

That map has some serious ween factoring. 45 inches...come on down..

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15 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

WXSIM for NW Chester County now has 4 hours of snow from 130p to 530p with 2.6" snow / than 7 hours of heavy sleet from 530pm thru 1230am  with 3.2" accumulation and then snow thru 7am with another 4.6" of snow - for a grand snow total of 10.4" - how's that for a nice straight forward concrete recipe!!

Solid!

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18 minutes ago, MPotter_WX said:

Looking over the NAM, the main lobe of vorticity at h5 was definitely displaced to the SE compared to 12z. May see that shift SE in all models this evening. The mixing/dry slot will continue to be an issue, but any move SE is good for everyone.

Rgem was a ripe turd for phl metro. You still smell the fumes.

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14 minutes ago, Albedoman said:

no worry, look at this map from the NAM. Snow tends to follow the geography. Anything East and South of South Mountain will be the tipping point for sleet. RT 78/81  from Allentown to Harrisburg gets crushed. Pottsville area is a good place to be and you are not that far from there. Rt 78/81 has to be closed down with 2-3 feet of snow period. No truck can get through that even with chains.

 

C76B3684-66A1-489E-AE7D-7C16C1820232.thumb.png.8708b2d5138d4f9ceb678aa736d94914.png

Easy call for Berks County.  I’d go with 5-30” inches as a first call.

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1 minute ago, Animal said:

That map has some serious ween factoring. 45 inches...come on down..

the 10:1  has 20 inches for the LV  If sleet stays  at bay , I would say 25 in is a good bet. Nothing like a good wish now and then. Either way you look at traveling on those interstates will be a living nightmare if they are not shut down between Harrisburg/Scranton and Allentown.

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3 minutes ago, Albedoman said:

the 10:1  has 20 inches for the LV  If sleet stays  at bay , I would say 25 in is a good bet. Nothing like a good wish now and then. Either way you look at traveling on those interstates will be a living nightmare if they are not shut down between Harrisburg/Scranton and Allentown.

I'm a trucker, and I can't even begin to think what it would be like trying to climb the Pine Grove to Tremont hill on I-81 northbound at the height of this storm.

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6 minutes ago, RedSky said:

GFS with a colder run good for the lower tier but a giant dry slot for the northern folks.

 

Haven’t seen the snow maps. Does it cut back for the northern suburbs? 

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12 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

You guys think I should stick with Williamsport or maybe head east to Scranton or south towards Harrisburg. I can’t freaking decide

Save on driving go to Pottsville campout by Yuengling 

 

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