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MN Transplant

December 16/17 Winter Event

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2 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

It seems headed that way. Still 24 hours of runs to go. This storm has morphed into a real POS over the last 24 hours.

I mean seriously...should anyone on the east coast be comfortable with this thing? Buffalo maybe

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I don't feel so depressed anymore, seems like most are getting a screwjob on this storm... And there are still a few model runs for things to get even worse before it starts.  Might as well pile on with the annual rain totals for 2020 though, if there's any silver lining to be found. 

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45 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

What do you think about ice?  Even though the 3k shows it My thought is it takes a solid below 30F to have significant icing.  28F even.  

Don’t think there will be any significant icing anywhere. Airmass is way too marginal. 

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Some folks will get upset that this busted, but it speaks to the state of forecasting honestly. The models aren't to be taken as what will happen, only an input into formulating a forecast. Even some mets I think have forgotten that. Models are a tool - not a prediction.

There were some like @ers-wxman1 that sounded caution on this early and said the airmass wasn't conducive to a big event.

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5 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Don’t think there will be any significant icing anywhere. Airmass is way too marginal. 

There will be icing in my drink.  JWB 

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RGEM has a nice WAA thump. Really nice by our updated standards for this storm. 2-5” for everyone including DC. Yes goes to sleet and rain, but adjust your standards people.

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7 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Don’t think there will be any significant icing anywhere. Airmass is way too marginal. 

Where do I sign?

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2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Not sure I think the NAM was a worse run. Could be just me but actually thought the 3k improved

maybe its good for you but its horrible up here. i thought 00z was awful and it still gave me double digits. 12z doesnt even give me 6 on snowmaps 

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At this point I’d be thrilled with 12-18 hours of sleet vs mostly rain. But not sure that’s going to even happen now for my locale. LWX had downgraded my point and click forecast but probably still too high.

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Just now, clskinsfan said:

At this point everyone in here would take the RGEM and run. 

I mean, I was thinking a dusting-2” could be a better forecast for MBY potentially. 3K NAM and RGEM keep hope alive that I could exceed last years total snow (3.5”) from this storm. 

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1 minute ago, mappy said:

maybe its good for you but its horrible up here. i thought 00z was awful and it still gave me double digits. 12z doesnt even give me 6 on snowmaps 

A2E78F5C-28D0-4F0B-B0EC-6C0CD5E37699.thumb.jpeg.c1b31e225572e32ae6ae7adfa61fad01.jpeg

Looks better to me region wide than 6z

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Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

A2E78F5C-28D0-4F0B-B0EC-6C0CD5E37699.thumb.jpeg.c1b31e225572e32ae6ae7adfa61fad01.jpeg

Looks better to me region wide than 6z

that includes sleet though. 

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There are multiple problems here. First off, certain models always show too much snow like Kuchera and 3K. People should not even look at those. Next, there were always models that suggested this was not a great event for many but people decide to toss those out for no reason. You can't just toss something out because you do not like it lol. Also, we know the NW trend. This being locked in days ago was always bad, it could only trend worse. You do not want to have something locked in 5 days away, it will always change.

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9 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Not sure I think the NAM was a worse run. Could be just me but actually thought the 3k improved

I just saw it quickly a few minutes ago . Surface is a touch colder and warm noses might be a tad se overall because the mix qpf has collapsed se just a bit . Just a wobble probably but the storm is still 30 hours out .like I said I'm working so I just did a quick and dirtry look lol

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3 minutes ago, mappy said:

that includes sleet though. 

     exactly.    no one should ever post a 10:1 map when the precip type images clearly show a ton of sleet.     The NCEP models tally snow and sleet together and put out a liquid total;   a 10:1 ratio applied to that  has no chance to be even in the ballpark.

 

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I think the dismissals of the high last night are looking incorrect. DC built rapidly and steadily overnight and is continuing. 1028 here  right now on a high that is forecasted to be 1032-1036 1000 miles to our north is an excellent  showing down here at this time 

 

 

 

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Just now, DCTeacherman said:

Lotta sleet.  The 3K never torches us that badly. 

It is definitely interesting to see even when the low is going as far W as these models have shown, surface temps barely touch freezing or don't go above for a lot of the northern tier folks. 

The 3k wasn't a "worse" run per say. I'm thinking a lot of these models are showing mesolow features as the true SLP, whereas the h85 and h5 tracks give us a better idea of where it actually would be. 

 

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8 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Not sure I think the NAM was a worse run. Could be just me but actually thought the 3k improved

Agreed...soundings were several ticks better for mby.  1-2 hours of sleet verbatim vs 3-4 hours of sleet at 06z.  

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