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December 16/17 Winter Event


MN Transplant
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Just now, psuhoffman said:

12knam isn’t a big event even up here imo. 2-3 before and 1-3 after a flip imo. 3k would be fun though. Good 4-6” front thump then 4-8” back. Go with the 3k. 

Didn’t you say we shouldnt hang our hats on backend snow? The nam is a disaster lol

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6 minutes ago, Ji said:

whats going on here lol

 

icon_T2m_neus_17.png

I will try to sum up

This is a map. It has colors and numbers overlaying a depiction of the states along part of the eastern seaboard.  Some of the numbers and colors mean things. For instance, Canada is cold while the Atlantic waters are warm. 

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Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

Yeah that’s what I was referring to. There’s no backend because there’s no backside at all. It looks like a warm front behind the low.

Actually it’s a cold front to push out all the warm 850s. At least from my side of the blue ridge

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1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Yeah that’s what I was referring to. There’s no backend because there’s no backside at all. It looks like a warm front behind the low.

I’d never recover. I’d get a good front end thump, then sleet until the dry slot moved west and I’d be done. Looks fine for psu, but it was horrible imby 

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Our best shot for heavy snow outside the favored areas well north and west will come on the front end thump. The CAD unfortunately is marginal and not deep which will erode quickly after 18z. Some areas such as nova, central MD, north of 70 could pick up 3-5 in the first 3-4 hours of the event before changing to sleet then rain. Need the thump. Wrap around CAA never set in stone and it appears the best forcing per the upper low energy will be north of the area in PA/NJ. Lighter snow on the backside for our area, let’s hope we can keep more forcing before everything shifts out. 

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10 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

RGEM moved the snow line 40-50 miles SE for everyone on this run. A better 4-6" thump for those around the DC beltway just referencing TTB with better totals to the N/E. 

Is the rgem in Millville’s top 5 above hieroglyphics?  If so I’m hugging it

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4 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:

Our best shot for heavy snow outside the favored areas well north and west will come on the front end thump. The CAD unfortunately is marginal and not deep which will erode quickly after 18z. Some areas such as nova, central MD, north of 70 could pick up 3-5 in the first 3-4 hours of the event before changing to sleet then rain. Need the thump. Wrap around CAA never set in stone and it appears the best forcing per the upper low energy will be north of the area in PA/NJ. Lighter snow on the backside for our area, let’s hope we can keep more forcing before everything shifts out. 

the system reminds me of some of those 90s nor'easters that would drop an easy 2-4/3-5", close schools and then change to a mix/rain.

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6 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:

Our best shot for heavy snow outside the favored areas well north and west will come on the front end thump. The CAD unfortunately is marginal and not deep which will erode quickly after 18z. Some areas such as nova, central MD, north of 70 could pick up 3-5 in the first 3-4 hours of the event before changing to sleet then rain. Need the thump. Wrap around CAA never set in stone and it appears the best forcing per the upper low energy will be north of the area in PA/NJ. Lighter snow on the backside for our area, let’s hope we can keep more forcing before everything shifts out. 

Your honest, sound take is overshadowed by delirious thoughts of 30" with 30 mph winds. Sound guidance is evil on this board.

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17 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

RGEM moved the snow line 40-50 miles SE for everyone on this run. A better 4-6" thump for those around the DC beltway just referencing TTB with better totals to the N/E. 

Looked like it was about to be a beatdown and then that weird low popped up on the Eastern Shore and messed it all up.

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