Bostonseminole Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Just now, Ericjcrash said: Coast may be in trouble per ICON... it's pretty tucked in the low, but I would not sweat the ICON.. it trended snowier, all I care. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 12, 2020 Author Share Posted December 12, 2020 Icon is most likely over doing now but that mid week system probably about 20 to 30 inches of snow 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 The icon basically finds a way to make the warmest solution overall from DC to NYC given the pattern. You couldn’t duplicate that in real life if you tried with the surface and upper features where they are 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Congrats Freak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Powder freak is going to LOVE the icon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The icon basically finds a way to make the warmest solution overall from DC to NYC given the pattern. You couldn’t duplicate that in real life if you tried with the surface and upper features where they are GFS paraplegic last night looked somewhat similar (edit...bad take here...similarly amped but they get there differently) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 12, 2020 Author Share Posted December 12, 2020 3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The icon basically finds a way to make the warmest solution overall from DC to NYC given the pattern. You couldn’t duplicate that in real life if you tried with the surface and upper features where they are Yeah no that’s next to geophysicallly impossible ... Not sure if it’s a simple as just making the QPF loaded colder or lowering the QPF to atone for the cold but either way ...no way it could be that warm with a high positioned like that physically impossible it’s a bad model solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The icon basically finds a way to make the warmest solution overall from DC to NYC given the pattern. You couldn’t duplicate that in real life if you tried with the surface and upper features where they are Hopefully here the transfer and nudge east from the confluence can save us. Does seem like at some point that takes over and forces the storm east. Still way far out though. We also need a good PNA ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: Yeah no that’s next to geophysicallly impossible ... Not sure if it’s a simple as just making the QPF loaded colder or lowering the QPF to atone for the cold but either way ...no way it could be that warm with a highlighter like that physically impossible it’s a bad model solution It just erodes the CAD signature over places like EWR in 2 hours which wouldn’t happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Toss the ICON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 My guess is the GFS doesn’t budge on Monday (it’s a classic type event where the GFS is a holdout til the last minute) and it ends up fairly similar to prior runs for Wednesday less amped than the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 3 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: Toss the ICON. You can say that for most situations 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Yeah no that’s next to geophysicallly impossible ... Not sure if it’s a simple as just making the QPF loaded colder or lowering the QPF to atone for the cold but either way ...no way it could be that warm with a high positioned like that physically impossible it’s a bad model solution Southern stream is pretty amped this run and the confluence shoots right on out. Not saying it's right...it's the German model for god's sake...but I'm not surprised it's way more N this run based on the upper air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 12, 2020 Author Share Posted December 12, 2020 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: My guess is the GFS doesn’t budge on Monday (it’s a classic type event where the GFS is a holdout til the last minute) and it ends up fairly similar to prior runs for Wednesday less amped than the Euro It’s in speed heaven for the past 7 .. 10 years. Lol. It’s too stoned to notice Monday’s memo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: You can say that for most situations Agreed. Most of the time I never look at it. Has it ever led the way on any system, lol? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 12, 2020 Author Share Posted December 12, 2020 4 minutes ago, dendrite said: Southern stream is pretty amped this run and the confluence shoots right on out. Not saying it's right...it's the German model for god's sake...but I'm not surprised it's way more N this run based on the upper air. Yeah I wasn’t looking at the deep layer Brian I’m just noticing the surface position of the high - it’s not moving off it’s perch north of Maine quickly enough to believe that CAD can be eroded that quickly that’s not really sensible in physical science or a climate sense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 GFS already more amped with first wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderblizzard Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 GFS coming in north for Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Yeah I wasn’t looking at the deep layer Brian I’m just noticing the surface position of the high - it’s not moving off it’s perch north of Maine quickly enough to believe that CAF can be eroded that quickly that’s not really sensible in physical science or a climate sense Here's the last 3 runs. Quite a different look vs 12/18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 12, 2020 Author Share Posted December 12, 2020 12 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: It just erodes the CAD signature over places like EWR in 2 hours which wouldn’t happen Almost an indictment of its BL resolution one wonders. With a high in a position like that there’s going to be a barrier jet from Penobscot Maine clear to Trenton New Jersey and there’s nothing that’s going to get through that axis sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 yeah, GFS looks nice for SE zones for wave 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 12, 2020 Author Share Posted December 12, 2020 19 minutes ago, dendrite said: Here's the last 3 runs. Quite a different look vs 12/18z. Well regardless of whatever happens with ptype ... that is a beautiful rotation of that 500 mill bar structure/correction 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 We like amped 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Temps look ehhhh for the few areas that do see precip Monday on the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Confluence is absurd.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 12, 2020 Author Share Posted December 12, 2020 Monday thermal layout hasn’t really looked conducive … marginal tho This is almost bulging back north as a pseudo- ANA and cold advection hasn’t really had time to get in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: Monday thermal layout hasn’t really looked conducive … This is almost bulging back north as a pseudo- ANA and cold advection hasn’t really had time to get in Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Mid week a cookin on gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Agreed. I couldn't care less about Monday, aside from acting as a 50/50. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 DC folks are jumping for joy....for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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