Major Nor'easter snow storm (possible top 20) Noon Wednesday-Noon Thursday Dec 16-17, 2020

[Allsnow]

It’s amazing how consistent the models are in bringing significant snow to nyc. Usually when you have blocking the models latch on to a idea early because it can only come so far north. Going to be a nasty cutoff in sne 

[crossbowftw3]

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

It’s amazing how consistent the models are in bringing significant snow to nyc. Usually when you have blocking the models latch on to a idea early because it can only come so far north. Going to be a nasty cutoff in sne 

Hard not to be nervous in the LHV as well. We should be fine but might just be precariously close to the cutoffs.

[bluewave]

The models that handle the 500 mb heights near Oregon and general PNA best will get the storm track correct. 
 

Bottom line: I'll be really curious to see tonight's MFR sounding. That 500mb height observation will perhaps help give us (and models) a clue where the storm might go later on. 5570m vs 5590m may seem small, but in a nonlinear system those tiny differences grow rapidly!

 

[Ericjcrash]

15 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said:

Hard not to be nervous in the LHV as well. We should be fine but might just be precariously close to the cutoffs.

Nah, you're going to end up jackpotting. EPS is pure porn

[White Gorilla]

26 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The models that handle the 500 mb heights near Oregon and general PNA best will get the storm track correct. 
 

Bottom line: I'll be really curious to see tonight's MFR sounding. That 500mb height observation will perhaps help give us (and models) a clue where the storm might go later on. 5570m vs 5590m may seem small, but in a nonlinear system those tiny differences grow rapidly!

 

Fascinating to say the least! 

[crossbowftw3]

Just now, Ericjcrash said:

Nah, you're going to end up jackpotting. EPS is pure porn

My nerves should just about subside once the main wave is in play. I still really like where I'm at here. >14:1 ratios are just asking for big totals of pure powder.

[jdj5211]

I’m actually excited for the NAM to come into range for this one 

[weatherpruf]

It's hard for me to get excited about weather with everything going on, but I check in here from time to time. Wha happen? A week ago people were writing winter off....now we are looking at a big storm? PS just got two big snow blowers, a 28 inch Yard machine and and 24 in craftsman, for next to nothing as Sears liquidates its remaining stock....I was thinking to put them in storage until....I really just thought a small one would be fine given the last 3 years....seriously one was 149$ and the other was 299$....less than what it costs to fix my old ones....

[Tatamy]

11 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

It's hard for me to get excited about weather with everything going on, but I check in here from time to time. Wha happen? A week ago people were writing winter off....now we are looking at a big storm? PS just got two big snow blowers, a 28 inch Yard machine and and 24 in craftsman, for next to nothing as Sears liquidates its remaining stock....I was thinking to put them in storage until....I really just thought a small one would be fine given the last 3 years....seriously one was 149$ and the other was 299$....less than what it costs to fix my old ones....

I have had one of those 28 inch Yard machine blowers for 12 years now.  It's a really nice machine.  Good for you on getting that deal - that is a fantastic price.

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

This storm will push up against one of the strongest 50/50 lows on record.

 

We haven’t seen a setup like this since March, 2018. Given how very strong the 50/50 low and confluence are, I think the threat is east/suppressed. This may be one of the few times NYC sees more snow than the north and west suburbs. For once, I think the GFS/GEFS are onto something. I don’t buy the tucked in solutions at all. Any doubts about how strong the block was going to be are all gone, it’s no joke, there is going to one hell of a sharp cutoff to the north of NYC

[MJO812]

27 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Nah, you're going to end up jackpotting. EPS is pure porn

That's if the eps is right. 

[MJO812]

[crossbowftw3]

2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

We haven’t seen a setup like this since March, 2018. Given how very strong the 50/50 low and confluence are, I think the threat is east/suppressed. This may be one of the few times NYC sees more snow than the north and west suburbs. For once, I think the GFS/GEFS are onto something. I don’t buy the tucked in solutions at all. Any doubts about how strong the block was going to be are all gone, it’s no joke, there is going to one hell of a sharp cutoff to the north of NYC

I still fear this happening. Still going par the course for my BY but you raise a good point here.

[snowman19]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

That's if the eps is right. 

EPS/Euro are way too tucked in IMO. No way are you tucking in with a record strong 50/50 low and confluence that strong, color me skeptical. I think the GEFS/GFS are showing the most likely outcome, this is going to turn out suppressed/east

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

EPS/Euro are way too tucked in IMO. No way are you tucking in with a record strong 50/50 low and confluence that strong, color me skeptical. I think the GEFS/GFS are showing the most likely outcome, this is going to turn out suppressed/east

I have said from the beginning that a shredded outcome is more likely than a hugger.

[Stormlover74]

NAM at 84 hrs is a hugger with warm air aloft

Hopefully getting ready to pull east shortly thereafter 

 

 

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

NAM at 84 hrs is a hugger with warm air aloft

 

 

Nam is usually too amped in the long range but this is a good look  for many.

[bluewave]

The NAM actually looks like it could be one of the EPS members more than the GEFS.

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The NAM actually looks like it could be one of the EPS members more than the GEFS.

84 hour Nam but the low looks to exit here

[Ericjcrash]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

84 hour Nam but the low looks to exit here

I don't think so. More amped than para GFS 

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

I don't think so. More amped than para GFS 

Its the 84 hour Nam. I'm getting bashed for talking about the Nam on another forum lol

[Ericjcrash]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Its the 84 hour Nam. I'm getting bashed for talking about the Nam on another forum lol

Yeah, I'm not saying it's right. But it shows what it shows.

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said:

Yeah, I'm not saying it's right. But it shows what it shows.

I would love to live where you are

[romba]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Its the 84 hour Nam. I'm getting bashed for talking about the Nam on another forum lol

Yea let’s discuss ICON instead lol. It’s between global runs, we need SOMETHING to look at, so the NAM it is

[Ericjcrash]

Just now, MJO812 said:

I would love to live where you are

Meh, just moved here and the lack of elevation is troubling but far better than being in Queens.

[greenmtnwx]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

I would love to live where you are

Why, you keep saying this will be suppressed so why would you want to be where he is lol. Inner weenie coming out?

[Ericjcrash]

1 minute ago, romba said:

Yea let’s discuss ICON instead lol. It’s between global runs, we need SOMETHING to look at, so the NAM it is

ICON more amped early on lol.

[SnowGoose69]

The NAM solution doesn’t make a whole lot of sense nor does many of the Euro members solely because systems evolving in such a pattern like this have never gone snow-mix or rain-snow at the coast.  At least nothing that I can remember in the last 30-40 years.  This is why more likely than not either this is going to split the difference between the EPS/NAM and GEFS idea or it’s going to continue ticking further NW  

[wdrag]

13 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The NAM actually looks like it could be one of the EPS members more than the GEFS.

Absolutely!  The questions continue going forward,  will it hold? I took a look at the 500MB pattern at 84 hours...modeling a 140 kt jet up over Quebec Wednesday evening and plenty of sw flow back to OHIO at 500MB. I'm pretty sure this says northern solution.

[the_other_guy]

41 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Ah, they had 40 and rain until recently. Weather for the masses