Major Nor'easter snow storm (possible top 20) Noon Wednesday-Noon Thursday Dec 16-17, 2020

[dave0176]

How’s it look for coastal middlesex county, I’m on the east side of Port Reading. Usually with these types of setups with the runs ticking NW we almost always never get much snow and usually turns to all rain. 

[SnoSki14]

9 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Absolutely!  The questions continue going forward,  will it hold? I took a look at the 500MB pattern at 84 hours...modeling a 140 kt jet up over Quebec Wednesday evening and plenty of sw flow back to OHIO at 500MB. I'm pretty sure this says northern solution.

Watch Forky be right and it ends up being a big rainstorm.

[White Gorilla]

21 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Watch Forky be right and it ends up being a big rainstorm.

Nope.  Not gonna happen.  Could it be possible?  It's 2020.  I will leave it right there. 

I am much more worried about a whiff up here near 84. 

[crossbowftw3]

1 minute ago, White Gorilla said:

Nope.  Not gonna happen.  Could it be possible?  It's 2020.  I will leave it right there. 

I am much more worried about a whiff up here near 84. 

My fear as well, still being maintained into this morning. 0z runs tonight will be key for us. Even if a relative whiff happens I'd think we'd still be good for 3-6".

[Stormlover74]

5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Watch Forky be right and it ends up being a big rainstorm.

Doubt it. Could mix or change for a time but enough cold air around for at least a decent snow event

[Stormlover74]

22 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The NAM solution doesn’t make a whole lot of sense nor does many of the Euro members solely because systems evolving in such a pattern like this have never gone snow-mix or rain-snow at the coast.  At least nothing that I can remember in the last 30-40 years.  This is why more likely than not either this is going to split the difference between the EPS/NAM and GEFS idea or it’s going to continue ticking further NW  

I was thinking March 2017 where we saw snow to heavy sleet and back to snow just west of the city. 

[SnoSki14]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

Doubt it. Could mix or change for a time but enough cold air around for at least a decent snow event

Hopefully that's the case. I think it'll be very difficult to warm the surface unless the storm is on top of us. 

[greenmtnwx]

9 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Watch Forky be right and it ends up being a big rainstorm.

Actually Forky already flipped and said he feels that suppression is the bigger risk now and this will stay S and E. I guess if he says both one will be right lol.

 

[White Gorilla]

When was the last storm the entire forum from mid Hudson Valley to Eastern LI to Jersey and E PA all received a foot plus? 

[Rjay]

11 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Watch Forky be right and it ends up being a big rainstorm.

He didn't forecast a rain storm. 

[Rjay]

Just now, greenmtnwx said:

Actually Forky already flipped and said he feels that suppression is the bigger risk now and this will stay S and E. I guess if he says both one will be right lol.

 

Forky never forecasted a rain storm.   He trolled and wished it would rain though. 

[crossbowftw3]

1 minute ago, White Gorilla said:

When was the last storm the entire forum from mid Hudson Valley to Eastern LI to Jersey and E PA all received a foot plus? 

I'm going to guess....sometime between 2014 and 2017?

[Allsnow]

It’s silly to put any stock in the nam until it’s 24-36 hours out 

[David-LI]

I wish we could all agree that “it’s the NAM at long distance” is no longer a valid argument.  It has been reliable long range before during storms.

[Stormlover74]

Just now, Allsnow said:

It’s silly to put any stock in the nam until it’s 24-36 hours out 

Its not alone though. Can't be ignored since it matches the euro well

Anyway let's see if the gfs/cmc hold serve

[SnoSki14]

Just now, MJO812 said:

84 hours

I don't like where things are going. That shortwave is no joke and models appear to be backing off the confluence.

[Allsnow]

Just now, David-LI said:

I wish we could all agree that “it’s the NAM at long distance” is no longer a valid argument.  It has been reliable long range before during storms.

It actually is and one of the reasons they are scraping the model next year 

[Tatamy]

2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Rgem is a huge rainstorm right now. 

For who?

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, Tatamy said:

For who?

Those ptype maps really make no sense.  Chances are you would have sleet near NYC in that setup 

[SnoSki14]

Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

Those ptype maps really make no sense.  Chances are you would have sleet near NYC in that setup 

That's sleet or rain. You ain't seeing snow with a low that far inland.

[snowman19]

7 minutes ago, Rjay said:

He didn't forecast a rain storm. 

No way in hell with this setup in the North Atlantic and SE Canada does this become a rainstorm. I don’t care what the RGEM is showing

[BxEngine]

Its time to start thinking before you post, everyone. Discuss the models and impacts here...and if discussing a specific model, please post it as well. Leave the gut calls, personal nonsense, and the psychiatry in the banter thread.

[Allsnow]

5 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Its not alone though. Can't be ignored since it matches the euro well

Anyway let's see if the gfs/cmc hold serve

Yes it can, it’s the 84 hour nam !!! Cmon 

[BxEngine]

1 minute ago, BxEngine said:

Its time to start thinking before you post, everyone. Discuss the models and impacts here...and if discussing a specific model, please post it as well. Leave the gut calls, personal nonsense, and the psychiatry in the banter thread.

That includes saying a model is wrong in its output without an explanation of why said model is showing something that “cant happen”.

[SnowGoose69]

3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

No way in hell with this setup in the North Atlantic and SE Canada does this become a rainstorm. I don’t care what the RGEM is showing

The RGEM is likely too far west but that tells us the GGEM will probably be close to the same idea.  The RGEM usually at this range portends what the GGEM will show  

[Allsnow]

Gfs is stronger with the confluence through hour 57

[MJO812]

9 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

That's sleet or rain. You ain't seeing snow with a low that far inland.

Ever heard of a front end thump?

[David-LI]

11 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

It actually is and one of the reasons they are scraping the model next year 

What does this mean? They’re upgrading it?

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Ever heard of a front end thump?

Hopefully it pulls east and stalls

[Allsnow]

2 minutes ago, David-LI said:

What does this mean? They’re upgrading it?

No. They’re doing away with it