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December Medium/Long Range Discussion

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1 minute ago, DTWXRISK said:

  THATS ITS i AM DONE.

 

 see  ya   in another 4 years 

JI gets to say and lie   all the time  without any   actions

He didn't say you lied.  Ji is simply hugging the colder models just as you are hugging the Euro more than other models.  We still don't know which will be right and I know you know this.  I'm just hope we can see how this plays out and you can give your insight on how or why.  TEACH DT.  Lets see how this can work 

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@DTWXRISK You know how Ji is.  We are trying to deal with that.  Use these storms as a way to help people see that snow maps aren't the end all be all.  

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3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

ICON is snow to rain for everyone. 

Yea it just completely dislodges the high and has it haul a** east allowing the storm to be amped. First I’ve seen of that but hopefully it wouldn’t be a trend. 

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1 minute ago, Snowchaser said:

Nothing like a midweek ice storm :cliff:

Don’t cliff dive yet. GFS isn’t superior in CAD situations, although some of the pros have alluded to the fact that there could be strong southerly flow up above the cold dome. 

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1 minute ago, jaydreb said:

Why not one more map.  :weenie:

F3012244-345E-45CB-96B5-4C214891E9FF.png

Just bring it south! I want an early start to winter break after all this so far. Hope January goes well with snow as well.

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23 minutes ago, H2O said:

He didn't say you lied.  Ji is simply hugging the colder models just as you are hugging the Euro more than other models.  We still don't know which will be right and I know you know this.  I'm just hope we can see how this plays out and you can give your insight on how or why.  TEACH DT.  Lets see how this can work 

Damn, I go away for some pizza and I miss all the action. 

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13 minutes ago, Rhino16 said:

Just bring it south! I want an early start to winter break after all this so far. Hope January goes well with snow as well.

A fair number of those members hit Calvert County thank you very much.  

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JMA on board. Hate the 24 hr maps, tough to see what happens after this panel before it heads East of Atlantic City....but this has the look of a Mid Atl pasting imo with that HP strength and location. One of the better model looks for most of this sub.

jma_z500_mslp_us_6.png

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24 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

Who has access to this model? Is it worth looking at?

No.  Not worth your time...and in this setup unless that OH valley low barrels through an increasingly stronger HP, there’s no chance the mountains are almost in the mid 30s.

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You go to bed after a mid and wake up to jubilation, mixed with temperament, sprinkled with DT lashing and Ji concerned despite incredibly solid model runs. The GFS is on an island with regards to intensity compared to the other “Good” globals.

Nature is healing


.

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23 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

Who has access to this model [IBM Deep Thunder / GRAF]? Is it worth looking at?

It's... Not the best for snow :O) It gets hyped up quite a bit, but it tends to overdo snowfall

^ That's an 80-hour forecast for April 7th, 2018

20180406.PNG

And for January 20th, 2019, just to provide another example... 73-hour forecast:

20190120.PNG

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50 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

You don’t use ensembles for precip type determination 

Aww man I was getting a laugh out of every one of those posts. Why ya gotta ruin the fun. 

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21 minutes ago, Treckasec said:

It's... Not the best for snow :O) It gets hyped up quite a bit, but it tends to overdo snowfall

^ That's an 80-hour forecast for April 7th, 2018

20180406.PNG

And for January 20th, 2019, just to provide another example... 73-hour forecast:

20190120.PNG

It has sucked but in fairness the other globals didn’t cover themselves in glory with those 2 storms from that range either. 

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