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40/70 Benchmark

December 2020 Discussion

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9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

EPS is getting more ridging into the EPO domain at the end of the run. You can see that if we keep doing the retro, it may get more Nina back half of the month. 

Question is will it fire up the SE ridge or will any higher heights in NAO region push the cold into the east?

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9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

EPS is getting more ridging into the EPO domain at the end of the run. You can see that if we keep doing the retro, it may get more Nina back half of the month. 

PNA is keeping the trough pinned over our longitude too before that. That’s probably a good spot for it to be with marginal cold around. Lowers the probability of something cutting inland. 

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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Just let him go....you should know by now that every low passing west of Tolland is a '38 redux.

40 to 45 in winter is meh. Get us over 65 then we can talk. Impressive blizzard for Illinois for sure. Love the way the hemisphere has evolved

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Just now, Ginx snewx said:

40 to 45 in winter is meh. Get us over 65 then we can talk. Impressive blizzard for Illinois for sure. Love the way the hemisphere has evolved

When?

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30 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

PNA is keeping the trough pinned over our longitude too before that. That’s probably a good spot for it to be with marginal cold around. Lowers the probability of something cutting inland. 

Yeah and I like getting some more cold in Canada. So far no complaints. 

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1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Initially, probably the latter....but you can see how this eventually plays out mid season.

I like 12/15 to 2/15.   The interior for the earlier events but at least 2 region wide warning events in that time frame. 

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3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

EPS is getting more ridging into the EPO domain at the end of the run. You can see that if we keep doing the retro, it may get more Nina back half of the month. 

That is a good thing would give us a -EPO. We need that -EPO for a cold load to drop into Canada. Your positive surely helps you guys out in the eastern US with some cold and would help me some too here with big storm chances but need the -EPO too. I don't see how a -EPO would lead to a return of La Nina?. I heard it's getting weaker anyways heading into a moderate one. 

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16 minutes ago, leo2000 said:

That is a good thing would give us a -EPO. We need that -EPO for a cold load to drop into Canada. Your positive surely helps you guys out in the eastern US with some cold and would help me some too here with big storm chances but need the -EPO too. I don't see how a -EPO would lead to a return of La Nina?. I heard it's getting weaker anyways heading into a moderate one. 

You're right Leo.  -EPO will not lead to a return of La Nina.

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3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think 12/10 to maybe like 1/10..

Yeah, I can see some lateJanuary torch time but I think KU end of January early February and for now focus on mid December tasty I-495 N&W event. 

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12 hours ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

You're right Leo.  -EPO will not lead to a return of La Nina.

Because the troughing is moving west. So eventually it will be dateline ridging. At least that’s how I see it later in December.

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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Even the normally underdone FV3 has winds 50-60mph Monday/ Monday night. And that’s 5 days out. Setting up to be a wild one. 

Stay safe. Stay very safe.

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21 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It's a long shot, but a little more interesting near 12/5 on guidance. 

Eps has a negative NAO and a positive PNA. It has been years we have seen this combo.

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23 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It's a long shot, but a little more interesting near 12/5 on guidance. 

Early December has some history to it here.

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5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Eps has a negative NAO and a positive PNA. It has been years we have seen this combo.

I thought it was in the process of backing off the PNA later in the 11-15 day. 

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