Henry's Weather Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I don’t have the index numbers but the hemispheric H5 pattern is about as staunchly pro-blocking in the NAO/AO region as I have seen it at this lead time since the 2010-2011 winter. Hard to get an ensemble mean this bullish out at 12-15 days. what a massive signal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 10 hours ago, Hoth said: Dude, didn't you pull like a foot last week? That's a win in my book. i'd almost rather not if its just all gonna get wiped out a week later on god damn xmas morning.......wtf.....i'm a big pack guy so while it was great and all whats the point really....... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 23 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I don’t have the index numbers but the hemispheric H5 pattern is about as staunchly pro-blocking in the NAO/AO region as I have seen it at this lead time since the 2010-2011 winter. Hard to get an ensemble mean this bullish out at 12-15 days. Looks great but we needs production. LR blocking prospects are like Byron Buxton for weenies. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Looks great but we needs production. LR blocking prospects are like Byron Buxton for weenies. Yeah there’s never guarantees that far out. But it’s as good as you can really get in the 11-15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah there’s never guarantees that far out. But it’s as good as you can really get in the 11-15. Oh..I’ll sign off no doubt. In the heart of winter climo too. And it’s not like it’s week 4 of weeklies either. Verification has to be what...better than 40%? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 Multi ensemble signals for blocking are strong. Hiked in the woods later this afternoon with my daughter and doggie. My 12 and 1/2 year old Golden did surprisingly well! So glad we were able to fix her ACL a year ago. My daughter and I did well also! Nice snow scene-wanted a lot of walking in it before it goes (hopefully temporarily). 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 53 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I don’t have the index numbers but the hemispheric H5 pattern is about as staunchly pro-blocking in the NAO/AO region as I have seen it at this lead time since the 2010-2011 winter. Hard to get an ensemble mean this bullish out at 12-15 days. ... ... thanks Dude - Yeah.. . I wanted see this before making this point. It's not exactly salient/novel or anything buuuut,.. the GFS solutions as of late simply do not fit that signal - not from the EPS, nor its own GEFs' -derivatives regarding the NAO domain. I don't even think the Euro operational run does very well either frankly - that 12z solution was a joke. Actually worse than the GFS on that one run. I'm talking about the D5 - 12 range. Something's not right - doesn't add up. tryin' to figure the f'er out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: thanks Dude - Yeah.. . I wanted see this before making this point. It's not exactly salient/novel or anything buuuut,.. the GFS solutions as of late simply do not fit that signal - not from the EPS, nor its own GEFs' -derivatives regarding the NAO domain. I don't even think the Euro operational run does very well either frankly - I'm talking about the D5 - 12 range. Something's not right - doesn't add up. tryin' to figure the f'er out You sure? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: thanks Dude - Yeah.. . I wanted see this before making this point. It's not exactly salient/novel or anything buuuut,.. the GFS solutions as of late simply do not fit that signal - not from the EPS, nor its own GEFs' -derivatives regarding the NAO domain. I don't even think the Euro operational run does very well either frankly - that 12z solution was a joke. Actually worse than the GFS on that one run. I'm talking about the D5 - 12 range. Something's not right - doesn't add up. tryin' to figure the f'er out 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: You sure? Yup, I'm sure ... the "operational" GFS does not look like it's own ensemble mean signal argues it should - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Yup, I'm sure ... the "operational" GFS does not look like it's own ensemble mean signal argues it should - Why should the op look like it’s ensembles? Or a better way of putting it is if it doesn’t look like the mean it’s likely an outlier member? Anyway, this is sure a blocky look on the op also... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 2 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: I just don't get how competitive the operational version are being against their own ensemble means - very bizarre ... That 12z Euro ( oper ) version cannot happen in that without some rare large scale anomaly - usually a comet impact! lol...no, but maybe if the NAO was exceptionally E-based, but given that position in the mean, it's not...So, it's got to be a pretty dramatic whole-scale systemic outlier... But the GFS is violating principles here in a different way altogether. It's opting to deconstruct blocking and just making it a top heavy subtropical ridge ... I 'guess' anything is possible - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 13 minutes ago, weathafella said: Why should the op look like it’s ensembles? Or a better way of putting it is if it doesn’t look like the mean it’s likely an outlier member? Anyway, this is sure a blocky look on the op also... Firstly ...not really re the 'blocky' - that's so far E it's almost outside of the NAO domain space ...and in fact, that massive SPV eclipsing from the west is so deep it's likely pulling any EOF calculation positive. But I'm glad you posted this polar stereographic view ..because it partially explains now how/why it manages to rip all S/W east of the Maritimes at a high latitude that is anti-climate for -NAOs ... It's not an NAO because of the hugely skewed typology there... As to the other, who said it has to look like anything - ...the argument is posed in concept, that when it doesn't ...it comes into question whether it can be right against the weight of all those ensemble members that thicken the means mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 18 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: thanks Dude - Yeah.. . I wanted see this before making this point. It's not exactly salient/novel or anything buuuut,.. the GFS solutions as of late simply do not fit that signal - not from the EPS, nor its own GEFs' -derivatives regarding the NAO domain. I don't even think the Euro operational run does very well either frankly - that 12z solution was a joke. Actually worse than the GFS on that one run. I'm talking about the D5 - 12 range. Something's not right - doesn't add up. tryin' to figure the f'er out Seems like the blocking isn’t really robust until after New Years. It’s around but not going gangbusters until that 1/1 system passes. Btw that trough that is responsible for the 1/1 system looks ridiculous. Where’s the Hadley cell when you need it? Lol, that thing is digging into Cabo SanLucas Even the ensemble mean is pretty aggressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 49 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Looks great but we needs production. LR blocking prospects are like Byron Buxton for weenies. I feel like confidence is reasonably high because we have already had an extended period of blocking this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Seems like the blocking isn’t really robust until after New Years. It’s around but not going gangbusters until that 1/1 system passes. Btw that trough that is responsible for the 1/1 system looks ridiculous. Where’s the Hadley cell when you need it? Lol, that thing is digging into Cabo SanLucas ... ... Even the ensemble mean is pretty aggressive. I think/thought it was earlier than that last week's guidance envelopment; Christmas cutter contributing..but ... winter enthusiasts should hope two things don't happen: 1) ... this turns into an always on D9 chart and it fails to get into short 'verifiable' terms ( until May 13 of course!) 2) ... it surges into dominance so strong that it's suppression madness. We want -1 NAO's in the mean that fluctuated around 3-5 day periodicity toward positive before collapsing - right in there is the Willy Wonka gold ticket. Not sure about the current PNA --> PNAP variation either - this things starting to chap my nerves. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: Seriously.. .does anyone have the EPS NAO ?? Good thing I didn't die 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 Uber blocky patterns do funky things that don’t always work out in our favor... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 1 minute ago, Kitzbuhel Craver said: Uber blocky patterns do funky things that don’t always work out in our favor... Exactly what I was thinking...too much of a good thing many times. Be careful what we wish for. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 I don't have a Met degree as was pointed out today but the LR sure looks like March 18, Feb 13 to me 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 We don't need an uber block. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 The NAO freefalls on the Eps in January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 18 minutes ago, MJO812 said: The NAO freefalls on the Eps in January Feb of ‘10? God...sure hope not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 24 minutes ago, dryslot said: We don't need an uber block. You certainly don’t...and for us in SNE, we like some, but not a crazy one for sure. Geez..let’s not get too carried away with this blocking stuff? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 Just now, WinterWolf said: You certainly don’t...and for us in SNE, we like some, but not a crazy one for sure. Geez..let’s not get too carried away with this blocking stuff? Yeah, I don't need to see another 2010. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 25 minutes ago, MJO812 said: The NAO freefalls on the Eps in January Great for Mid Atl to S of Pike zones. One slow moving bowling ball will do. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 9 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Feb of ‘10? God...sure hope not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 7 minutes ago, MJO812 said: What did Feb of ‘10 look like? Similar? Or more so? Cuz we might as well have been on the moon up here...nothing was getting up in here with that Uber block back then. Blocking can be fun here...bring some, but not massive blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 20 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: What did Feb of ‘10 look like? Similar? Or more so? Cuz we might as well have been on the moon up here...nothing was getting up in here with that Uber block back then. Blocking can be fun here...bring some, but not massive blocking. I lived in Delaware during the 2009/10 winter...it was fun down there, not sure about up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 4 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: I lived in Delaware during the 2009/10 winter...it was fun down there, not sure about up here SUCKED UP HERE SPANKS...nothing could get up in here...we watched you guys get 30” after 30” ....hope we never have to see that BS again. Absolutely INFURIATING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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