Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,586
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    23Yankee
    Newest Member
    23Yankee
    Joined

December 2020 Discussion


40/70 Benchmark
 Share

Recommended Posts

22 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

There's been some awful takes in here. I don't see a reversion to the AK pig pattern at all. It doesn't mean we are going to definitely get snow, but we have a legit chance for events unlike when a pig pattern where the chances are remote.

There's a lot of either deliberate trolling or just ignorance gong on here.....maybe we should break it down:

Late November/first few days of Dec: AK pig pattern/torch....little chance for snow outside of upslope areas

Dec 5 - Dec 15ish: +PNA/El Nino flavor pattern....legit chance for snow, especially from about 12/7 onward. Still a bit mild early on but getting colder as Canada starts to reload...esp by the 10th.

Post-Dec 15th: Transition to more typical December La Nina? Could start rebuilding the Aleutian ridge. It looks pretty poleward though on early extended guidance. No sign of AK pig. More likely to see overrunning/SW flow events in this pattern vs coastals. But quick hitting coastals/redevelopers do still happen (see 12/25/17) This is obviously pretty far out, so it could change...maybe the El Nino look hangs on a bit longer than guidance shows (ala Dec 1975). We just don't know until we get closer.

Here 

  • Weenie 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

probably remedial for some but ... this business with the D5.5 thru 7 period ( or so ) seems pretty text- booky/academic mode change headaches ... 

pna2.thumb.jpg.466df1e850da5436c7fcf10ae9f751dd.jpg

And ...as an afterthought ..whatever does ultimately get ejected off the Pacific may be over or under assimilated ...and small doses of error either way would also destine the way those main players start dating down stream.  They need their god ( the western ridge and total L/W x coordinate/nuance scaffolding ) to actually make them compatible on the Zodiac chart though ... Sometimes fate tries to pair up a Capricorn with a Pisces and ... that usually ends up in flickering blue lights embarrassing the neighbors.   You need wave harmonics -

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

So when I’m cautious and worried it’s annoying and when I decide to join you guys with positivity and snow coming chances it’s annoying. Got it 

Listen. I think we all would be happy for you to join in the convo, just not in the negative way you have been posting. Reverse psychology, not wanting to be disappointed later... It doesnt really matter the reason, it's just doesnt add anything to the discussion. So... Join in, but please.. Try to keep your negative thoughts to yourself ( unless they are warranted and teue ). ;-)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's almost like this 'uncertainty period' itself was written on the wall ...when the GEFs started hammering a PNA mode changes, but the EPS was/has been hesitating.  

So far - not sure this has any value but might ... - the EPS seems to be slowly caving to the +PNA ... that "might" be an indication that the Euro forecast system is more suspect - 

But it is hard to blame the EPS/Euro camp entirely...because the GFS has had its own continuity headaches too - ...I think it's just a bad model performance period of time and maybe the PNA rise, while the AO and NAO correcting negative (  which, where the hell is the blocking then ?) , during transition season no less... it may all just be too much.   

I thought the Euro's genius was that it smoothed noise but heh -

Link to comment
Share on other sites

35 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

probably remedial for some but ... this business with the D5.5 thru 7 period ( or so ) seems pretty text- booky/academic mode change headaches ... 

pna2.thumb.jpg.466df1e850da5436c7fcf10ae9f751dd.jpg

And ...as an afterthought ..whatever does ultimately get ejected off the Pacific may be over or under assimilated ...and small doses of error either way would also destine the way those main players start dating down stream.  They need their god ( the western ridge and total L/W x coordinate/nuance scaffolding ) to actually make them compatible on the Zodiac chart though ... Sometimes fate tries to pair up a Capricorn with a Pisces and ... that usually ends up in flickering blue lights embarrassing the neighbors.   You need wave harmonics -

Awesome post. Thanks, Tip!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, PhineasC said:

That's true, but this last event was kind of silly with 55 degree rain all the way up into Canada and snow deep into GA. That's like upside-down world basically.

Not quite as weird as the middle of my first December in Maine - 1973 - when we had RA and 56 in BGR while my parents in NNJ were 15 and IP.  However, having a 7 AM temp that's slightly milder than the average low in late July is noteworthy.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

12/5-12/6 is a hail mary. Absolutely putrid airmass.

Yeah... I mentioned this awhile ago ...what this thing can't do - for the winter scenery enthusiasts ...heh - is be totally southern stream, or it'll rain everywhere beneath the summits. 

That ICON solution is rather fortuitously timed as a learning tool, because of how it summarily then jams that concept down one's throat...

One can just see it in the thickness contouring there, that the N/stream 'failed' to capture, and the system is pretty clearly as Ray pointed out...conserved southern stream sounding as it rolls up underneath and evades intermingling with those pretty blue colors tauntingly avoiding it because the Germans hate Christmas... LOL

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah... I mentioned this awhile ago ...what this thing can't do - for the winter scenery enthusiasts ...heh - is be totally southern stream, or it'll rain everywhere beneath the summits. 

That ICON solution is rather fortuitous because of how well it jams that concept down one's throat... You can just see it in the thickness contouring there, that the N/stream 'failed' to capture, and the system is pretty clearly as Ray pointed out...conserved southern stream sounding as it rolls up underneath and evades intermingling with those pretty blue colors taunting avoiding it... LOL

Yeah RE: the bolded.....we need to infuse northern stream into this in order to crash the thicknesses enough to make this matter for snow. So it's definitely a "thread-the-needle" system.

Leaving the southern stream behind in the southwest and focusing on the 2nd northern stream shortwave for 12/7-8 turned out to be more useful like yesterday's 12z Euro....but it seems we're trending away from that now as the southern stream is ejecting and we're back to the 12/5 system which is tougher and probably causes too much interference for 12/7-8 should that shortwave even try to dig enough.

So we're left with trying to phase the first northern stream shortwave with the southern stream for 12/5....all while not "accidentally" tracking this too far west at the same time.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

This is from my last blog update on Thanksgiving.....still like this time frame, as it offers a nice convergence between analog climo and current guidance.

This turn of events would render it very likely that southern New England will experience a major winter storm by the end of the second week of December. This would be consistent with climatology from some of the active December analogs, as the first major winter storms in December 2007 and 2008 occurred on December 13 and 19, respectively.

Anything prior to said time frame will take some luck....but it should be pretty fast and furious once we break the seal towards mid month.

This is how I expected December to play out when I issued the outlook about a month ago.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah RE: the bolded.....we need to infuse northern stream into this in order to crash the thicknesses enough to make this matter for snow. So it's definitely a "thread-the-needle" system.

Leaving the southern stream behind in the southwest and focusing on the 2nd northern stream shortwave for 12/7-8 turned out to be more useful like yesterday's 12z Euro....but it seems we're trending away from that now as the southern stream is ejecting and we're back to the 12/5 system which is tougher and probably causes too much interference for 12/7-8 should that shortwave even try to dig enough.

So we're left with trying to phase the first northern stream shortwave with the southern stream for 12/5....all while not "accidentally" tracking this too far west at the same time.

Yup... and the N/stream ( just adding to your assessment there ...) is rather consistent as to when it dives through the Lakes.  The 7/8th idea of yesterday had more "cold plausibility" ( if you will...) because the N/stream had a chance to time better... 

But this GFS solution seems to like the ICON and they are both now wrapping up a silver Nor'easter out of an entirely S/stream entity - or too much so to even work on marginality ...either way.   I mean there's time...  and, as this chart below shows, there is cold air near-by ...really close actually from a greater synoptic perspective, but it just won't integrate - 

850.thumb.jpg.16394859a4dfbfe5c31c4d3f27131f61.jpg

Link to comment
Share on other sites

56 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Listen. I think we all would be happy for you to join in the convo, just not in the negative way you have been posting. Reverse psychology, not wanting to be disappointed later... It doesnt really matter the reason, it's just doesnt add anything to the discussion. So... Join in, but please.. Try to keep your negative thoughts to yourself ( unless they are warranted and teue ). ;-)

:lmao: I’ve been around on the boards longer than you’ve been alive son.

  • Haha 1
  • Weenie 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...