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Few gusts 46+MPH and spotty damage-power outage 5A-5P Monday Nov 2, 2020

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Per this afternoons NWS issuance of a wind advisory for Monday, have split the difference in the timing to keep it simple for our AMWX NYC forum.  Confidence is somewhat less than yesterday to see more than isolated 46MPH advisory criteria reports and associated power outages from downed tree limbs, aided by many trees still partially leaved. Appears  best chance for downward transfer of 45-max 60 MPH gusts is 6A-Noon, especially ne PA and I84 ridges through se NYS and CT in CAA with a gradual decrease in wind probable during mid and late afternoon. E tip of LI may also be more prone to gusts past 46MPH aided by the warm surrounding SST's. 

Positives are the Richardson # briefly "nearly" solid 0.25 (red) to 825MB and the associated steepest lapse rate with a decent nw flow gradient between deepening near 980MB low pressure in the Maritimes and 1035MB high pressure to our southwest. in the lower Mississippi Valley.  

Negatives: My experience that the FOUS displayed synoptic scale BL wind needs to equal or exceed 27kt on the coastal plain (LGA so far is modeled to be hovering with a max of BL wind of ~25-26kt), and a lack of strong pressure rises-subsidence-rapidly rising sfc based LI. Even the Richardson # is starting to show breaks.  12z/1 SPC HREF, 12z HRRRX, 18z HRRR and and 12z EC gusts seem predominately below 46 MPH, except the ridges.  

Added graphics to this topic a couple of 3KM NAM 18z/1 LGA time section graphics for Monday (Richardson #, Temperature and wind and RH tsections)... and a 3K NAM 18z/1 modeled sounding focused on 16z.

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Quick early morning update with graphics of max gusts NYS, NJ, and local storm reports from last evening's frontal passage. Power outage map as well...all updated as of 410A.  Power outages have decreased in PA since last evenings burst. Note all the power outages across the south...ZETA and ice storm from 4-5 days ago. 

Will review weather by 530A.

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On the wind: Not much change from yesterday. To reach 40KT or greater (46 MPH), it's going to have to occur this morning between between now and Noon.  Winds decrease significantly mid-late afternoon except the north shore of LI and LI eastern tip where near 46 MPH gusts may occur through 6PM, and even reoccur near dawn Tuesday.

The 00z/2  EC ticked up slightly from yesterday... the HRRR, HRRRX and NAM profiles look the same as yesterday. Strongest winds should occur on the ridges where I think 50-55MPH will be occurring this morning. Catskill 'highest' peaks may be even stronger this afternoon. 

Be alert for moving debris, especially this morning. Cars, if outside,  best parked safely and legally, away from trees. 

Snow: I84 high terrain a smattering of slight accumulation here and there this morning and again early Tuesday.  Flurry risk almost to NYC this morning prior to 10AM, and again tomorrow morning 5-10AM.  505A/2

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37 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Nothing new to report as of 720AM... all gusts below 45 MPH at this time in our area, at this time and no new LSR reports this morning, so far.  Closest 50MPH since 630 am is Camp David MD.  

Coverings of new snow are occurring this morning on the high terrain west and north of NYC. 

 Just had a quick coating from a streamer at my elevation of 125’. Current radar has good coverage for the interior this morning.


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Gusting into the 40s along the coast.

Jones Beach      N/A     43 N/A N/A W30G43      N/A
Wantagh          N/A     41  28  60 W22G43      N/A
Hempstead      NOT AVBL
Matinecock Pt    N/A     43 N/A N/A NW33G46     N/A


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Wind doing well in the city... here's todays NYS mesonet max wind gust map as of 945A. No new LSR reports out of OKX yet but undoubtedly there has to  be some problems.   NJ has 8300 customers out, and in addition my counties electric cooperative has 110 customers out.  Multiply customers x 2.5 and you have an idea of the total # of people without power.  So there are wind advisory impacts this morning.  NY and PA have more out, a bit higher in the power grid minor category. 

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Max gusts 40 its or greater past hr or so from FSU MOE survey. Plenty on the island 46-52 MPH.  Excellent OKX-PHI wind advisory. 

KACY: Atlantic City, Atlantic City Intl Arpt, NJ, United States [43kt, 22m/s]

KADW: Camp Springs / Andrews AFB, MD, United States [40kt, 21m/s]

KBID: Block Island, Block Island State Airport, RI, United States [40kt, 21m/s]

KCDW: Caldwell, Essex County Airport, NJ, United States [40kt, 21m/s]

KDCA: Reagan National Airport, DC, United States [41kt, 21m/s]

KFOK: Westhampton Beach, NY, United States [45kt, 23m/s]

KFRG: Farmingdale, Republic Airport, NY, United States [41kt, 21m/s]

KHFD: Hartford, Hartford-Brainard Airport, CT, United States [43kt, 22m/s]

KHPN: White Plains, NY, United States [42kt, 22m/s]

KIAD: Washington-Dulles Intl Arpt, VA, United States [47kt, 24m/s]

KILG: Wilmington, New Castle County Airport, DE, United States [40kt, 21m/s]

KISP: Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY, United States [42kt, 22m/s]

KJFK: JFK Intl Arpt, NY, United States [40kt, 21m/s]

KJYO: Leesburg / Godfrey, VA, United States [44kt, 23m/s]

KLGA: New York, La Guardia Airport, NY, United States [41kt, 21m/s]

KMDT: Harrisburg, Harrisburg Intl Arpt, PA, United States [41kt, 21m/s]

KMIV: Millville, Millville Municipal Airport, NJ, United States [40kt, 21m/s]

KMPO: Mount Pocono, PA, United States [46kt, 24m/s]

KRDG: Reading, Reading Regional Airport, PA, United States [46kt, 24m/s]

KRSP: Campd David, MD, United States [45kt, 23m/s]

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Winds woke me up this morning. They’ve been pretty impressive. LGA probably has some decent gusts recorded. 

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Here's a 1215PM data update...certainly not all encompassing.  mesonets from NYS and NJ for max gusts today,  power outages... generally minor but significant.

43 MPH at my home in Wantage around 1033AM.  Seems to be slowly decreasing here.  

On the power outage map... note Oklahoma... I think thats the ice storm impact from the middle of last week.  

The wind advisory  LSR report I'm sure will be much more complete at 6PM. 


May not post again til mid or late afternoon, 

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1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

Quite windy here, large tree branch down in my backyard. 

Yea, very windy in NW Suffolk, my grill blew over, which has never happened in the 5 years that i have lived here

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Good afternoon everyone:  I've spot checked the NJ/NYS mesonets, and other than 1 or 2 locations  where the max gust was 1 MPH higher than the Noon post (sub advisory), the wind has since diminished in most of NYS-NJ and soon will in CT. Power outages in NYS and NJ were also decreasing, a sign of repairs and less wind since midday. 

PHI has expired their Advisory.  

I'm thinking there will be a complete LSR summary sometime tonight or tomorrow. Otherwise,  what you already saw  for this wind event, is about it.  Unsure what more I can add unless anyone on the forum has a request.

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