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Typhoon Tip

Oct 29-30 snow threat

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11 minutes ago, dryslot said:

GFS has part 2 going ENE off the Virginia coast, I guess some think that will bring snow to the northeast......lol

Nope, Only one wish-caster from Tolland CT. 

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Just now, dryslot said:

First ones to warm up here.

Really need part 2 to bomb out to get that isallobaric flow cranking to advect in that low level cold air. The more meh it is, the more meh the LLVL CAA is.

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1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Really need part 2 to bomb out to get that isallobaric flow cranking to advect in that low level cold air. The more meh it is, the more meh the LLVL CAA is.

We need 2 days back runs.

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Just now, dendrite said:

Really need part 2 to bomb out to get that isallobaric flow cranking to advect in that low level cold air. The more meh it is, the more meh the LLVL CAA is.

Yeah part 2 was the source of most of the snow in all the previous runs....there's a little bit of part 1 snow way up north on more recent runs, but we really want part 2 to crank to give some legit heavy snow....that CAA you talk about also enhances the frontogensis which would drive that heavier snow.

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UKMET quite a bit uglier than 00z....still tries for some light accumulations over interior SNE/CNE, but nothing like the widespread advisory snows that 00z had.

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

UKMET quite a bit uglier than 00z....still tries for some light accumulations over interior SNE/CNE, but nothing like the widespread advisory snows that 00z had.

Ya this is quickly becoming a nothing burger for most...if you are looking for winter precip.  
But bring the rain, we can use it. 

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Fwiw - 

I've been a fan/user of the NAM FOUS ...since back whence it was once the 'ETA' product in the early to mid 1990s, and I can tell you that these grid numbers are snowing a pretty good clip ( most likely ...), certainly .. relative to climo of premie 'Ween events those adjectives are true.  Particularly visualized west of the city of Boston out over that first set of hills ( Arlington Hgts ...) out toward I-95... western side of Waltham/Newton ..up toward Burlington, down a ways ...but not sure when SE contamination plays in ... But those areas or probably over to moderate parachutes in this profile

 

BOS                                 LGA
36031989751 08119 090417 54070100   36073989822 12609 020425 64070410
42068967727 11922 070329 52049999   42026955927 02616 040321 57060107
48021959143 05718 100224 42009798   48024979244 -9214 090220 45020099
54015614124 -0519 140115 36019595   54010795313 -2212 153611 40040097
60000412219 00618 203508 32039695   60000765509 00719 213405 37060096

Even down near NYC is flipping/ed to snow at 48 hours... certainly fatties mixed in.

But, the 'fanship' kicks in for me < 36 hours ...so - given to 'subtle' bumps N and Chris' mentioning that the spread was oriented back this way, I'm 'subtly' impressed by these sigma values centered on D 2

 

Tip,   can you give me a link to the Fous data?   I had a link but it doesn't work anymore.  I liked looking at is too

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4 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

Not until Turkey Day.  Then it changes back on St. Patrick's Day. 

So it’s hazy, hot and humid in November until T. Day?  And then it’s hazy hot and humid in mid March too?     Oh ya, that makes sense lol.

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10 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Ya this is quickly becoming a nothing burger for most...if you are looking for winter precip.  
But bring the rain, we can use it. 

Yeah we need the southern piece to come back a little stronger. I wouldn't toss the towel in yet on some light accumulations, but it seems less and less likely we're not going to get the higher end potential which could have been low end warning snowfall for a chunk of the interior.

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4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah part 2 was the source of most of the snow in all the previous runs....there's a little bit of part 1 snow way up north on more recent runs, but we really want part 2 to crank to give some legit heavy snow....that CAA you talk about also enhances the frontogensis which would drive that heavier snow.

I think two aspects are observably in play - from my seat ...

1 .. Zeta is stronger ...  A stronger entity perhaps 'resists' ( for lack of better word only on the fly here ..) absorption, because it really just comes down to it having too much momentum in its own tortionality and so forth.. blah blah popsicle headache.  But, this resistance is helping keep it more cohesively separate - helping to maintain it's individual integrity in the flow

2 .. the flow ( unfortunately...) is being exposed as 'too fast,' and a stronger Zeta is caught in it by a day .. day and half from now.  As we get in tighter to the complex and fragile timing of stream interactions... this part is the real math -headache.  If Zeta were weaker it "could be" absorbed more readily by the model capacity to do so.  Its diabatic infusion would have probably been useful to the total physical interplay/phasing, because it would have helped the z-coordinate deepening which slows/ parks against the flow that critical amount that allows better phasing to happen.   Without out something to slow ... stream bypass becomes more likely ... It could still do all that, and the models could just be a little lacking their ability here - the Euro I think may be useful...

... not 'you' per se in saying this ...but what folks need to realize is that phasing has a kind of temporal window - it's really no different than harmonizing waves -- referred to as constructive interference.  If the streams outpace each other, the interference is destructive ... and it sounds like finger nails on chalk-board, not Tchaikovski

so...instead of synergistically structuring the outcome ..the opposite happens.  

Not to harp but ... fast flow is crippling this ... it's been crippling more over recent winters too - .. but, folks probably getting tired of me bloviating why so I won't   haha

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I’m just not quite grasping the evolution of this. Is Zeta part 1 and ULL part 2? The whole thing looks rather mundane for having tropical energy injected into it. I guess if zeta stays a separate entity and exits stage right, it would tug the other along. I figured they would consolidate better. I gotta see this play out. Good setup to miss out on. Oh well winter is saved atleast.


#NovaScotiaStrong

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13 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Tip,   can you give me a link to the Fous data?   I had a link but it doesn't work anymore.  I liked looking at is too

I've been going to Suny ALB's atmos dept: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/gopher-local/albany/FOUS61

 ...I don't know if there's a direct NWS/NOAA link ...like here:    https://www.weather.gov/mdl/mos_getbull

 

but, the former one provides our trifecta/geographic region - ...  

There are many sectors though and these grids ( as you know ) are presenting for many regions around the country ... try poking around in the MOS one at NWS - it may be lurking in there, but ...I haven't bothered to probe.  I don't really care about the FOUS for Albequir. NM ...ha

 

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah we need the southern piece to come back a little stronger. I wouldn't toss the towel in yet on some light accumulations, but it seems less and less likely we're not going to get the higher end potential which could have been low end warning snowfall for a chunk of the interior.

Yes, agreed.  Not looking to be anything out of the ordinary for most folks.  If you’re high up in SNE maybe some coatings for those folks. The rest of us just cold and wet. 

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3 minutes ago, Hazey said:

I’m just not quite grasping the evolution of this. Is Zeta part 1 and ULL part 2? The whole thing looks rather mundane for having tropical energy injected into it. I guess if zeta stays a separate entity and exits stage right, it would tug the other along. I figured they would consolidate better. I gotta see this play out. Good setup to miss out on. Oh well winter is saved atleast.


#NovaScotiaStrong

That's what I'm trying to intimate ... the first wave is really an 'increasingly more conserved' Zeta vestige ... but at this point, the GGEM looks like TD moving S of LI in the process of melding into the warm frontal arm... 

But I think what that conservation of Zeta is doing is sort of analogous to 'robbing' the wave spaces from their ability to phase better.   This may simply have been a Zeta story all along and the models were underdone with that assessment and ( maybe had to correct by buttboning the other signal... ) lol... kidding a little there. 

There's still time. Those NAM FOUS numbers ...if that plays out, it's snows though - maybe they won't.  Who knows 

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God ...just once...  all models bail... mood guided by wrenches and hammers and drill bits to the brink ... then have it snow anyway

- please do that to people in purpose .. I beg  :)

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As cool as it was having a good snow storm in October is was a royal PIA, no power or internet, couldn't work for a few days, lost a freezer full of meat. I have a genny now but wont shed a tear if we don't get another one.

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1 minute ago, dryslot said:

12z Euro a bit sharper then the 06z run, Bumped qpf up again further north in part 1.

Yeah that first wave is much further north with the precip shield.

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