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Windspeed

Hurricane Zeta

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Big question is how much strength it loses as it will spend a fair amount over the Yucatan, both the HWRF and HMON have it back down to a TS and never really bring it back to a hurricane.

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28 minutes ago, Cheeznado said:

Big question is how much strength it loses as it will spend a fair amount over the Yucatan, both the HWRF and HMON have it back down to a TS and never really bring it back to a hurricane.

I'd be inclined to minimize those models. The NHC is already progging a LA Delta landfall at hurricane strength, which is a slight bump up from earlier forecasts. They now show Zeta at hurricane strength clear across the GOM. The 1700 Forecast Discussion will have the details.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/180131.shtml?cone#contents

 

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1 hour ago, Cheeznado said:

Big question is how much strength it loses as it will spend a fair amount over the Yucatan, both the HWRF and HMON have it back down to a TS and never really bring it back to a hurricane.

Delta passed over quickly. If it's eye and structure held together the end game would have been much worse. Granted almost a month ago, the Gulf has cooled a bit.

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Next recon on it's way.   Really wish MX Belize had working radars cause it's hard to tell how far convection is wrapping around the center.

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Quote
000
WTNT33 KNHC 262041
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Zeta Advisory Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL282020
400 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2020

...ZETA EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND A DANGEROUS STORM 
SURGE TO PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF 
COAST...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 86.0W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES
...
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Zeta was located
near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 86.0 West.  Zeta is moving
toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h).  A northwestward motion
with some increase in forward speed is expected over the next day or
so, followed by a turn toward the north Tuesday night. A faster
northward to north-northeastward motion is forecast on Wednesday. On
the forecast track, the center of Zeta will move over the northern
Yucatan Peninsula later today or tonight, move over the southern
Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, and approach the northern Gulf Coast in 
the watch area on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher 
gusts.  Some additional strengthening is possible before Zeta makes
landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula.  Some weakening is likely while
Zeta moves over the Yucatan Peninsula late tonight and early
Tuesday.  Zeta is forecast to strengthen again when it moves over
the southern Gulf of Mexico later on Tuesday and be at or near 
hurricane strength when it approaches the northern Gulf Coast on 
Wednesday. 

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb (28.97 inches).

 

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Almost looks as if there has been another vortex realignment. Though EXTRAP was rather broad around 983, they hit 982.5 within the presently strong MCS as the flight veered just E of S. Winds have not come up. We'll have to see if strong area of convection becomes the dominate vorticity maximum prior to landfall. Again, though pressure is still falling, it seems some structural reorganization may be underway. Fortunately for the Yucatán, at this time, it appears Zeta is going to run out of time for significant strengthening to take off.9cf106de04d753dda278e5ec88f88aef.jpg30b62cc0602527c047754ca469609c39.gif

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29 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Almost looks as if there has been another vortex realignment.

Where can I find a path history to see any zigs and zags. My storm follower amateur eyes have thought I've seen some, but so far do not have path history in my small bucket of visual tools to look at.

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Where can I find a path history to see any zigs and zags. My storm follower amateur eyes have thought I've seen some, but so far do not have path history in my small bucket of visual tools to look at.
Just going on the elongated minimal pressure obs from recon and their veer to the center point of that CDO feature. At any rate, it's looking like Zeta is going to run out of ocean surface before it can go bonkers, which is a good thing.
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54 minutes ago, Windspeed said:
56 minutes ago, Prospero said:
Where can I find a path history to see any zigs and zags. My storm follower amateur eyes have thought I've seen some, but so far do not have path history in my small bucket of visual tools to look at.

Just going on the elongated minimal pressure obs from recon and their veer to the center point of that CDO feature. At any rate, it's looking like Zeta is going to run out of ocean surface before it can go bonkers, which is a good thing.

Landfall south of Delta and a lot weaker, which means more time over the Yucatan before moving back over warm waters?

(May not be adding anything to a met discussion, but there are a lot of us who check out this forum and love the technical met secret codes who are here for the sake of being with like minds.) :)

TS conditions in Cancun, but hopefully not too  much more. Still a storm to watch for we who are totally obsessed...

image.thumb.png.026a3088302d2868f53fcdcbd85b10b9.png

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Well, at least one dedicated stormchaser is apparently back in the hunt, for Zeta this time. I'm effing jealous, dammit  ;]  .  [edit-- I'm surprised he was able to get another rental vehicle  :whistle: --]

 

 

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6 hours ago, NavarreDon said:

 

 

 


.

 

 

Getting in the eyes of both delta and zeta in Mexico with no radar, no well defined eye on satellite, and both being small eyes, is extremely impressive. This storm was ramping up it just ran out of water. GFS is interesting, it deepens the system through landfall. I’m wondering if the increased forward speed will mitigate the time zeta spends in the cooler water/higher shear environment thus negating those weakening factors. The shear vector also is in line with forward motion which could mitigate that impact as well. This to me looks like a “solid” cat 1 landfall in Louisiana 

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Compared to Delta, Zeta is a bit weaker on Gulf emergence and will have less time over water, but the overall environment appears to be a bit better. I agree at least a solid cat 1 at landfall is likely, could be a bit stronger depending on how long it takes the storm to "reset" after the land interaction. 

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6 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

A couple days ago this was expected to be sheared and weaken on approach to the gulf coast.  Now the models are in the 960s to 970s.

This is why I never buy the first round of intensity estimates. Too many moving parts. Almost every expected strong storm comes in weaker, and vice versa.

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3 hours ago, Wild Weather Monger said:

Does anyone have the EMCF and GFS gust products handy?  Zeta looks to be likely to cause more inland tree damage deep into the SE states than any storm this season given it's fast forward motion once inland.

These products are typically very overdone. That being said, the ECMFW and GFS both depict a significant inland wind event across central Alabama and Northern Georgia from Atlanta northwards. Essentially along and just north of the I-85 corridor. If you want to see fall leaves in the mountains, go today.

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These products are typically very overdone. That being said, the ECMFW and GFS both depict a significant inland wind event across central Alabama and Northern Georgia from Atlanta northwards. Essentially along and just north of the I-85 corridor. If you want to see fall leaves in the mountains, go today.

Could be pretty potent ET transition over land well inland. 80-90 kt low-level jet at 900 hPa. Just depends on how strong convection is on the eastern flank of the circulation to mix down gusts as it phases with the mid-level low.
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3 minutes ago, Windspeed said:
36 minutes ago, dwagner88 said:
These products are typically very overdone. That being said, the ECMFW and GFS both depict a significant inland wind event across central Alabama and Northern Georgia from Atlanta northwards. Essentially along and just north of the I-85 corridor. If you want to see fall leaves in the mountains, go today.

 

Could be pretty potent ET transition over land well inland. 80-90 kt low-level jet at 900 hPa. Just depends on how strong convection is on the eastern flank of the circulation to mix down gusts as it phases with the mid-level low.

The GFS brings 50-70 mph gusts up through north Georgia, upstate SC, and the western half of NC

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MOB has a decent write up about some of the inland affects below in last nights ST disco...

 

 

SHORT TERM /Wednesday night Through Thursday night/...Bands of

heavy rain and gusty winds will increase across the area on

Wednesday night as Zeta approaches the local area from the

southwest. At this time, landfall is forecast to occur in southeast

Louisiana sometime early Wednesday evening and then lift northeast

across southeast MS and into parts of southwest AL Wednesday

night. Tropical storm conditions (strong wind gusts and heavy

rain) will spread northeast across our forecast area Wednesday

evening into the early predawn morning hours Thursday. This system

will be interacting with a cold front and broad region of

associated diffluence aloft, so it is unlikely we see the typical

decay after landfall that we would see in storms earlier in the

season. In fact, model soundings continue to suggest upwards of 80

to 100 knots of flow in the eastern quadrant just off the surface

(925-850 mb layer) persisting well after surface winds have

weakened as Zeta moves inland over interior southeast Mississippi

even up into central Alabama. This will serve as a source of

momentum for heavy convective bands to transport to the surface.

Therefore, while locations along and west of I-65 will have the

greatest chance of seeing sustained tropical storm conditions

Wednesday night, can`t rule out frequent strong gusts to tropical

storm force farther east as well. As a result, a Tropical Storm

Watch has been issued for the entire local area. a weakening Zeta

accelerates quickly northeastward and by early Thursday morning

Zeta is expected to be over northeast AL and moving rapidly away

from the area with winds and rains gradually subsiding during the

day on Thursday.

 

 

.

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