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Hoosier

Winter 2020-21 Medium/Long Range Discussion

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Still looks on track for pattern change late next week and the more favorable pattern continuing beyond that. The EPS seemed to have a few run hiccup and the 12z reverted back to closer to what it had been showing. Pattern change doesn't equal snow for everyone right away but hopefully it gets active enough to have more opportunities for more areas. It no doubt does suck to have this very long boring stretch after an already bad start to the season.

 

Recall that 2018-19 got off to a big start for parts of the sub and then essentially stopped December-mid January then became very active after that point through April, benefitting west and northwestern subforum the most. With bonafide NAO and AO blocking in place this time, and possibly locked in for a while longer from the stratospheric warming event effects, it could be a good period of winter weather. Just have to wait and see.

 

 

 

 

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Like others, growing more confident in the upcoming nw flow pattern bringing snow, not necessarily big dogs but frequent opportunities for accumulating snow without marginal temps. Generally speaking baroclinic zone layout looking favorable.

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This boring period seems a bit over the top, even though boring stretches occur every winter. Hopefully in the end our reward will be an extended period of active wintry weather. Its nice to know that light is at the end of the tunnel, but the much overused zzzzzz has never been more legit than now.

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35 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

This boring period seems a bit over the top, even though boring stretches occur every winter. Hopefully in the end our reward will be an extended period of active wintry weather. Its nice to know that light is at the end of the tunnel, but the much overused zzzzzz has never been more legit than now.

It’s not warm. It’s not cold. Little in the way of precipitation. Strange winter

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Like others, growing more confident in the upcoming nw flow pattern bringing snow, not necessarily big dogs but frequent opportunities for accumulating snow without marginal temps. Generally speaking baroclinic zone layout looking favorable.

Looking deeper into the long range, liking the potential to go to more quasi zonal over our region, with a chance for systems to take shape farther south out in the west or high Plains. It's been interesting to note how the GEFS has been decidedly colder out in the longer range (10-15 day), probably a product of the GEFS establishing better cross polar flow with a decent -EPO. Either way a pretty solid look on the ensemble mean with plenty of cold air available on the GEFS and cold enough on the EPS, accompanied by a west based -NAO and a -PNA.  

 

EPS images are top 3 and GEFS are bottom 3

 

43c96b7495d00f0380473f17acfac473.jpg&key=a6305360e4488d63788ded4a46f136760efe4911aff83126371a1ffa4be82cf9ed5675e5a66fca0077cc050c3de774cb.jpg&key=0c47288ef3df20db31f129d321d7293f9574fcaf72ec14697a36009e39c99c2ed8e13ada112a39c55aef6dc114742b14.jpg&key=85792b66288ac6deb517384d7972925eaa12ca54e07aa89270cabb248d2eea49a4b8c3ece4dbc1367981ed890a709adc.jpg&key=570aafe0b8202fc3f6004f92c76a3c474d1d36550f1f715ea587fede4167f35e1de32550b09fead6b4b3b717b837ebfa.jpg&key=4a68e151084b442be46732685510273c44ba688ea1275f7eec44040290fdf5abae4ac0f52d5dc6b5be62daf5742bec55.jpg&key=8ebcd6290f806efcaf54e962dc452e67ee36b25ec62b476da033089ae8aeb37e

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, RCNYILWX said:

Looking deeper into the long range, liking the potential to go to more quasi zonal over our region, with a chance for systems to take shape farther south out in the west or high Plains. It's been interesting to note how the GEFS has been decidedly colder out in the longer range (10-15 day), probably a product of the GEFS establishing better cross polar flow with a decent -EPO. Either way a pretty solid look on the ensemble mean with plenty of cold air available on the GEFS and cold enough on the EPS, accompanied by a west based -NAO and a -PNA.  

 

EPS images are top 3 and GEFS are bottom 3

 

43c96b7495d00f0380473f17acfac473.jpg&key=a6305360e4488d63788ded4a46f136760efe4911aff83126371a1ffa4be82cf9ed5675e5a66fca0077cc050c3de774cb.jpg&key=0c47288ef3df20db31f129d321d7293f9574fcaf72ec14697a36009e39c99c2ed8e13ada112a39c55aef6dc114742b14.jpg&key=85792b66288ac6deb517384d7972925eaa12ca54e07aa89270cabb248d2eea49a4b8c3ece4dbc1367981ed890a709adc.jpg&key=570aafe0b8202fc3f6004f92c76a3c474d1d36550f1f715ea587fede4167f35e1de32550b09fead6b4b3b717b837ebfa.jpg&key=4a68e151084b442be46732685510273c44ba688ea1275f7eec44040290fdf5abae4ac0f52d5dc6b5be62daf5742bec55.jpg&key=8ebcd6290f806efcaf54e962dc452e67ee36b25ec62b476da033089ae8aeb37e

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

let's make the lower lakes a bowling alley lol

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2 hours ago, RCNYILWX said:

Looking deeper into the long range, liking the potential to go to more quasi zonal over our region, with a chance for systems to take shape farther south out in the west or high Plains. It's been interesting to note how the GEFS has been decidedly colder out in the longer range (10-15 day), probably a product of the GEFS establishing better cross polar flow with a decent -EPO. Either way a pretty solid look on the ensemble mean with plenty of cold air available on the GEFS and cold enough on the EPS, accompanied by a west based -NAO and a -PNA.  

 

EPS images are top 3 and GEFS are bottom 3

 

43c96b7495d00f0380473f17acfac473.jpg&key=a6305360e4488d63788ded4a46f136760efe4911aff83126371a1ffa4be82cf9ed5675e5a66fca0077cc050c3de774cb.jpg&key=0c47288ef3df20db31f129d321d7293f9574fcaf72ec14697a36009e39c99c2ed8e13ada112a39c55aef6dc114742b14.jpg&key=85792b66288ac6deb517384d7972925eaa12ca54e07aa89270cabb248d2eea49a4b8c3ece4dbc1367981ed890a709adc.jpg&key=570aafe0b8202fc3f6004f92c76a3c474d1d36550f1f715ea587fede4167f35e1de32550b09fead6b4b3b717b837ebfa.jpg&key=4a68e151084b442be46732685510273c44ba688ea1275f7eec44040290fdf5abae4ac0f52d5dc6b5be62daf5742bec55.jpg&key=8ebcd6290f806efcaf54e962dc452e67ee36b25ec62b476da033089ae8aeb37e

 

 

 

 

It's absolutely awesome that we have real professionals in here sharing their craft!  Thank You!

 

 

 

 

 

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Still relatively far out, but if we can get this kind of look for February, it would imply some things to track.  Maybe a little bit of a living dangerously look though, especially the farther southeast you are in the region.

summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.202102.thumb.gif.b1f64fba23c669e211d9bd69e0699305.gif

 

summaryCFSv2.NaPrec.202102.thumb.gif.c2072bc40a821961ca49a98d25f657b9.gif

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Definitely liking February potential Hoosier. I always joke with one of my good friends (who only like snow on Christmas). His birthday is February 26th and we almost always have snow on his birthday whereas Christmas is more of a 50/50 shot.

 

Even though any long range map needs to be taken with an extreme grain of salt, another thing to remember is all reds and blues are not created equal. Think back to the model forecasts for early January. The maps were ablaze in reds, burgundies and browns. However it's npt at all torching during the day, it's just that the low temperatures are way above average.

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The shitty pacific and modest -nao blocking have been battling it out all winter. When you don't have a true dominant signal, you get a winter like this. Its like when you are having sex and your fighting on who's on top. and yeah, the PAC signal has won more than not its share of victories.

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2 minutes ago, Angrysummons said:

The shitty pacific and modest -nao blocking have been battling it out all winter. When you don't have a true dominant signal, you get a winter like this. Its like when you having sex and your fighting on who's on top. and yeah, the PAC signal has won more than not its share of victories.

K

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On 1/4/2021 at 1:04 AM, StormfanaticInd said:

image.thumb.png.94039ef0f32d18469340e16a877713c7.pngThis is a heck of a set up. Given what happened in the Bearing sea a couple days ago there could be a big system between the 16th and the 21st if my calculations are correct

Time period is starting to come into focus. :ph34r:

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There's been decent run to run shifts which we should still see for a few days before specific details become more clear, though tonight's Euro and GEM bring in some snow for a decent chunk of the sub with the pattern change on Thursday-Friday timeframe. There's then some additional snow potential as the upper low pivots across the region and additional clipper type waves of energy move in behind it over the weekend.

 

Overall ideas remain on track, starting out northwest flow and then possibly trending to more zonally oriented flow pattern and baroclinic zone for week 2. The ensembles are trending toward an increasingly negative PNA in the long range, possibly the La Nina forcing finally showing up. If the polar (AO/NAO) blocking remains sufficient, southeast ridging tendency of -PNA would remain more muted and could be good for an active wintry pattern into February.

 

 

 

 

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7 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

There's been decent run to run shifts which we should still see for a few days before specific details become more clear, though tonight's Euro and GEM bring in some snow for a decent chunk of the sub with the pattern change on Thursday-Friday timeframe. There's then some additional snow potential as the upper low pivots across the region and additional clipper type waves of energy move in behind it over the weekend.

 

Overall ideas remain on track, starting out northwest flow and then possibly trending to more zonally oriented flow pattern and baroclinic zone for week 2. The ensembles are trending toward an increasingly negative PNA in the long range, possibly the La Nina forcing finally showing up. If the polar (AO/NAO) blocking remains sufficient, southeast ridging tendency of -PNA would remain more muted and could be good for an active wintry pattern into February.

 

 

 

 

That negative pna combined with HLB kinda makes me a little concerned about significant icing events with overrunning 

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1 hour ago, StormfanaticInd said:

:shiver:

gfs-ens_T2ma_namer_62.png

That is a cold look, so I'm not trying to downplay it, but this isn't bitter cold for Indianapolis. The normal low for IND in late January -6° C or 21°. A -5° C anomaly produces a low of 12° F.

Scrolling through week 2 of the GEFS, the cold dome just north of the border slowly intensifies, and cold anomalies slowly bleeds into the northern Plains and Midwest, while the heart of the cold remains trapped in southern Canada/along the border. As Ricky alluded to above, at least it does look like a michsnowfreak favorite layout with some clippers.

At least it's something to look forward to rather 2 weeks of blahhh.

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1 hour ago, IWXwx said:

That is a cold look, so I'm not trying to downplay it, but this isn't bitter cold for Indianapolis. The normal low for IND in late January -6° C or 21°. A -5° C anomaly produces a low of 12° F.

Scrolling through week 2 of the GEFS, the cold dome just north of the border slowly intensifies, and cold anomalies slowly bleeds into the northern Plains and Midwest, while the heart of the cold remains trapped in southern Canada/along the border. As Ricky alluded to above, at least it does look like a michsnowfreak favorite layout with some clippers.

At least it's something to look forward to rather 2 weeks of blahhh.

This is a totally theoretical statement....but for some snow weenies....let's say the month period from Jan 20 to Feb 20 ended up with a temp departure of -3° and snowfall at 75% of average. Many would say, "so much for a pattern change". Lets say it ended up at +1° with snowfall 150% of avg, they would say "awesome pattern change". A more wintry change seems near imminent, but in the end it will be the amount of active wintry weather that defines it.

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The GFS and Euro are on different planets Thursday.  The GFS has all the energy focused on a strong low up in Canada.  Meanwhile, the Euro has no low in Canada at all and has all the energy in the midwest.  Other models are in between.

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png

prateptype_cat.conus.png

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I'mma need it to not snow on Thursday, k? I've got Wed-Friday off this week and I had planned some travel, but as a rule I don't drive when snow is falling unless absolutely necessary.

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1 hour ago, CheeselandSkies said:

I'mma need it to not snow on Thursday, k? I've got Wed-Friday off this week and I had planned some travel, but as a rule I don't drive when snow is falling unless absolutely necessary.

Try moving to Chicago. You’d be golden 

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For lack of a better term, February looks like it could offer the chance for a blockbuster or two for the Lakes as the North American longwave pattern retrogrades plus continuing high latitude blocking (albeit likely relaxed some) and a more Nina-like regime resumes. Should note that with this high latitude blocking comes some degree of suppression to the typical SE ridge, and less likelihood for storms to cut west of the sub-forum.

Going to have to watch severe weather chances down south I'd imagine as well.

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