Winter 2020-21 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Angrysummons]

Pattern for early November reminds me a bit of 1917

3 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said:

The key to this winter is going to be the strength of the southeast ridge. Wildcard is the NAO

Yeah, look at early 1918. Big -NAO driven pattern that created a historical period the first half of January.

[RogueWaves]

3 hours ago, Angrysummons said:

Pattern for early November reminds me a bit of 1917

Yeah, look at early 1918. Big -NAO driven pattern that created a historical period the first half of January.

We need a 1-12-1918 redux. Earliest news accounts of rescuing stranded motorists I've personally seen.

[nwohweather]

Pattern for early November reminds me a bit of 1917
Yeah, look at early 1918. Big -NAO driven pattern that created a historical period the first half of January.

I mean we’re already living our best 1918 life everyday

[A-L-E-K]

long range getting a more interesting look but still lots of zzzz to get through

[Snowstorms]

Pretty decent warm-up coming after Nov 3rd for most of the sub-forum which should last till mid-November. Impressive -PNA and +AO means much of the PNW will be below normal and the east above. EPS and GEFS both have a ridge just east of the Aleutians and it seems to stay put through mid-month. Looks like a typical Nina pattern. To put things into perspective, previous La Nina's like 2007, 2008 and 2010 all featured a warm-up in November. 

[StormfanaticInd]

I'm starting to favor a cold winter given the warm waters in the north pacific. 

[StormfanaticInd]

Could 2014 be an analog??? 

[CheeselandSkies]

53 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

Could 2014 be an analog??? 

 

[RobertSul]

6 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said:

 

2014 is back from Costa Rica! 

[A-L-E-K]

looking more seasonal into the long range following the late heat

[A-L-E-K]

sure why not, got a real 2020 look

 

[StormfanaticInd]

La Nina is still cranking and warm pool in the north Pacific still going strong. This could make for an interesting winter 

[michsnowfreak]

Just a food for thought post. I saw someone else posted elsewhere that It was New York's warmest 5 year stretch of winters on record for the past 5 winters. I checked out Detroit and I was surprised to see that it was a tie here as well for warmest 5 year stretch (though it was all 15-16, 16-17, 19-20, as 17-18 & 18-19 were much colder). 2015-16 thru 2019-20 tied with 1928-29 thru 1932-33 for warmest 5 year stretch of winters, with the 5 year winters mean over 3° above avg (doesn't sound like much but significant for a 5 year stretch). 

1928-29 thru 1932-33 avg snow: 41.1"

2015-16 thru 2019-20 avg snow: 41.8"

period of record avg: 41.1" (current avg 43")

 

So despite this 5 year warm stretch snowfall was around avg. I could find 5 year stretches of MUCH colder temps with below avg snowfall.. Moral of the story? At a northern latitude, don't let reds and oranges on a 2 and 3 month out map worry you as much as individual patterns. 

[Chicago Storm]

I’ve only briefly looked into it, but at this time I expect...

AA temps, AA precip and BA snowfall around here.


.

[michsnowfreak]

I'm thinking slightly above avg temps (wild swings though), well above avg precip, and above avg snow.

[Baum]

3 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

I’ve only briefly looked into it, but at this time I expect...

AA temps, AA precip and BA snowfall around here.


.

your no Joe Bastardi..

[Stebo]

9 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

I’ve only briefly looked into it, but at this time I expect...

AA temps, AA precip and BA snowfall around here.


.

I would go AA across the board.

[andyhb]

Storm on Sunday could be quite the wind maker on the Lakes.

[StormfanaticInd]

This winter is going to be epic! 

[Hoosier]

6 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

This winter is going to be epically mediocre! 

fyp

[IWXwx]

OOhhh, Hoosier with a winter prediction.

[cyclone77]

15 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

This winter is going to be epic! 

Epically good, or epically terrible? 

[mississaugasnow]

4 hours ago, andyhb said:

Storm on Sunday could be quite the wind maker on the Lakes.

Ya, looking at heading down to Lake Erie Sunday to check out the waves and possible lakeshore flooding. 

[StormfanaticInd]

12 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

fyp

Come on. Where's the faith?

[Malacka11]

19 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

fyp

Not to be a goober, but what does "FYP" mean?

[Hoosier]

3 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

Not to be a goober, but what does "FYP" mean?

Fixed your post

[CheeselandSkies]

Nina winter could go either way, at least for southern Wisconsin. Could be epic like '07-'08, could be MIA like 2011-12.

Personally I'm fine with the Twin Cities getting all the fun in November while we remain relatively mild.

[Malacka11]

I'm at the point where even mediocre is okay on paper as long as it actually feels like winter for a month or two. Just gimme a couple of okay snows, a few 3-4" ones and maybe an 8-10" incher (that's pushing the boundaries of mediocre, but maybe the rest of the season will compensate) and I'll be happy. 

[Snowstorms]

Quite similar atmospheric and oceanic weather patterns between this year and 1988, also a Nina year. 1988-89 was one of the strongest La Nina's in modern times and also came after two Nino's like this year. However, I don't expect this years La Nina to be similar in magnitude. 1988-89 was a mediocre winter and was fairly dry, which is unusual for our region. 

[michsnowfreak]

Browsing various outlook posts, it seems like the analogs that keep showing up are

1975-76

1983-84

1988-89

2007-08

2016-17

 

other ones include 1973-74, 2010-11, 2011-12, 2017-18