Angrysummons Posted October 27, 2020 Pattern for early November reminds me a bit of 1917 3 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said: The key to this winter is going to be the strength of the southeast ridge. Wildcard is the NAO Yeah, look at early 1918. Big -NAO driven pattern that created a historical period the first half of January. 4 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
RogueWaves Posted October 28, 2020 3 hours ago, Angrysummons said: Pattern for early November reminds me a bit of 1917 Yeah, look at early 1918. Big -NAO driven pattern that created a historical period the first half of January. We need a 1-12-1918 redux. Earliest news accounts of rescuing stranded motorists I've personally seen. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
nwohweather Posted October 28, 2020 Pattern for early November reminds me a bit of 1917 Yeah, look at early 1918. Big -NAO driven pattern that created a historical period the first half of January.I mean we’re already living our best 1918 life everyday 2 2 1 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
A-L-E-K Posted October 29, 2020 long range getting a more interesting look but still lots of zzzz to get through 1 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Snowstorms Posted October 29, 2020 Pretty decent warm-up coming after Nov 3rd for most of the sub-forum which should last till mid-November. Impressive -PNA and +AO means much of the PNW will be below normal and the east above. EPS and GEFS both have a ridge just east of the Aleutians and it seems to stay put through mid-month. Looks like a typical Nina pattern. To put things into perspective, previous La Nina's like 2007, 2008 and 2010 all featured a warm-up in November. 4 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
StormfanaticInd Posted October 29, 2020 I'm starting to favor a cold winter given the warm waters in the north pacific. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
StormfanaticInd Posted October 30, 2020 Could 2014 be an analog??? 3 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CheeselandSkies Posted October 30, 2020 53 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: Could 2014 be an analog??? 1 1 3 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
RobertSul Posted October 30, 2020 6 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said: 2014 is back from Costa Rica! 1 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
A-L-E-K Posted November 4, 2020 looking more seasonal into the long range following the late heat 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
A-L-E-K Posted November 5, 2020 sure why not, got a real 2020 look 1 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
StormfanaticInd Posted November 6, 2020 La Nina is still cranking and warm pool in the north Pacific still going strong. This could make for an interesting winter 3 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
michsnowfreak Posted November 7, 2020 Just a food for thought post. I saw someone else posted elsewhere that It was New York's warmest 5 year stretch of winters on record for the past 5 winters. I checked out Detroit and I was surprised to see that it was a tie here as well for warmest 5 year stretch (though it was all 15-16, 16-17, 19-20, as 17-18 & 18-19 were much colder). 2015-16 thru 2019-20 tied with 1928-29 thru 1932-33 for warmest 5 year stretch of winters, with the 5 year winters mean over 3° above avg (doesn't sound like much but significant for a 5 year stretch). 1928-29 thru 1932-33 avg snow: 41.1" 2015-16 thru 2019-20 avg snow: 41.8" period of record avg: 41.1" (current avg 43") So despite this 5 year warm stretch snowfall was around avg. I could find 5 year stretches of MUCH colder temps with below avg snowfall.. Moral of the story? At a northern latitude, don't let reds and oranges on a 2 and 3 month out map worry you as much as individual patterns. 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Chicago Storm Posted November 7, 2020 I’ve only briefly looked into it, but at this time I expect...AA temps, AA precip and BA snowfall around here.. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
michsnowfreak Posted November 7, 2020 I'm thinking slightly above avg temps (wild swings though), well above avg precip, and above avg snow. 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Baum Posted November 7, 2020 3 hours ago, Chicago Storm said: I’ve only briefly looked into it, but at this time I expect... AA temps, AA precip and BA snowfall around here. . your no Joe Bastardi.. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Stebo Posted November 8, 2020 9 hours ago, Chicago Storm said: I’ve only briefly looked into it, but at this time I expect... AA temps, AA precip and BA snowfall around here. . I would go AA across the board. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
andyhb Posted November 12, 2020 Storm on Sunday could be quite the wind maker on the Lakes. 2 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
StormfanaticInd Posted November 12, 2020 This winter is going to be epic! Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Hoosier Posted November 12, 2020 6 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: This winter is going to be epically mediocre! fyp 1 3 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
IWXwx Posted November 12, 2020 OOhhh, Hoosier with a winter prediction. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
cyclone77 Posted November 12, 2020 15 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: This winter is going to be epic! Epically good, or epically terrible? 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
mississaugasnow Posted November 12, 2020 4 hours ago, andyhb said: Storm on Sunday could be quite the wind maker on the Lakes. Ya, looking at heading down to Lake Erie Sunday to check out the waves and possible lakeshore flooding. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
StormfanaticInd Posted November 12, 2020 12 minutes ago, Hoosier said: fyp Come on. Where's the faith? 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Malacka11 Posted November 12, 2020 19 minutes ago, Hoosier said: fyp Not to be a goober, but what does "FYP" mean? 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Hoosier Posted November 12, 2020 3 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: Not to be a goober, but what does "FYP" mean? Fixed your post 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CheeselandSkies Posted November 13, 2020 Nina winter could go either way, at least for southern Wisconsin. Could be epic like '07-'08, could be MIA like 2011-12. Personally I'm fine with the Twin Cities getting all the fun in November while we remain relatively mild. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Malacka11 Posted November 13, 2020 I'm at the point where even mediocre is okay on paper as long as it actually feels like winter for a month or two. Just gimme a couple of okay snows, a few 3-4" ones and maybe an 8-10" incher (that's pushing the boundaries of mediocre, but maybe the rest of the season will compensate) and I'll be happy. 3 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Snowstorms Posted November 13, 2020 Quite similar atmospheric and oceanic weather patterns between this year and 1988, also a Nina year. 1988-89 was one of the strongest La Nina's in modern times and also came after two Nino's like this year. However, I don't expect this years La Nina to be similar in magnitude. 1988-89 was a mediocre winter and was fairly dry, which is unusual for our region. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
michsnowfreak Posted November 13, 2020 Browsing various outlook posts, it seems like the analogs that keep showing up are 1975-76 1983-84 1988-89 2007-08 2016-17 other ones include 1973-74, 2010-11, 2011-12, 2017-18 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites