• Member Statistics

    16,258
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    PoZitron20
    Newest Member
    PoZitron20
    Joined
Hoosier

Winter 2020-21 Medium/Long Range Discussion

Recommended Posts

Pattern for early November reminds me a bit of 1917

3 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said:

The key to this winter is going to be the strength of the southeast ridge. Wildcard is the NAO

Yeah, look at early 1918. Big -NAO driven pattern that created a historical period the first half of January.

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Angrysummons said:

Pattern for early November reminds me a bit of 1917

Yeah, look at early 1918. Big -NAO driven pattern that created a historical period the first half of January.

We need a 1-12-1918 redux. Earliest news accounts of rescuing stranded motorists I've personally seen.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Pattern for early November reminds me a bit of 1917
Yeah, look at early 1918. Big -NAO driven pattern that created a historical period the first half of January.

I mean we’re already living our best 1918 life everyday
  • Like 2
  • Haha 2
  • Sad 1
  • Weenie 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Pretty decent warm-up coming after Nov 3rd for most of the sub-forum which should last till mid-November. Impressive -PNA and +AO means much of the PNW will be below normal and the east above. EPS and GEFS both have a ridge just east of the Aleutians and it seems to stay put through mid-month. Looks like a typical Nina pattern. To put things into perspective, previous La Nina's like 2007, 2008 and 2010 all featured a warm-up in November. 

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just a food for thought post. I saw someone else posted elsewhere that It was New York's warmest 5 year stretch of winters on record for the past 5 winters. I checked out Detroit and I was surprised to see that it was a tie here as well for warmest 5 year stretch (though it was all 15-16, 16-17, 19-20, as 17-18 & 18-19 were much colder). 2015-16 thru 2019-20 tied with 1928-29 thru 1932-33 for warmest 5 year stretch of winters, with the 5 year winters mean over 3° above avg (doesn't sound like much but significant for a 5 year stretch). 

1928-29 thru 1932-33 avg snow: 41.1"

2015-16 thru 2019-20 avg snow: 41.8"

period of record avg: 41.1" (current avg 43")

 

So despite this 5 year warm stretch snowfall was around avg. I could find 5 year stretches of MUCH colder temps with below avg snowfall.. Moral of the story? At a northern latitude, don't let reds and oranges on a 2 and 3 month out map worry you as much as individual patterns. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I’ve only briefly looked into it, but at this time I expect...

AA temps, AA precip and BA snowfall around here.


.

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

I’ve only briefly looked into it, but at this time I expect...

AA temps, AA precip and BA snowfall around here.


.

your no Joe Bastardi..

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

I’ve only briefly looked into it, but at this time I expect...

AA temps, AA precip and BA snowfall around here.


.

I would go AA across the board.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Nina winter could go either way, at least for southern Wisconsin. Could be epic like '07-'08, could be MIA like 2011-12.

Personally I'm fine with the Twin Cities getting all the fun in November while we remain relatively mild.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm at the point where even mediocre is okay on paper as long as it actually feels like winter for a month or two. Just gimme a couple of okay snows, a few 3-4" ones and maybe an 8-10" incher (that's pushing the boundaries of mediocre, but maybe the rest of the season will compensate) and I'll be happy. 

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Quite similar atmospheric and oceanic weather patterns between this year and 1988, also a Nina year. 1988-89 was one of the strongest La Nina's in modern times and also came after two Nino's like this year. However, I don't expect this years La Nina to be similar in magnitude. 1988-89 was a mediocre winter and was fairly dry, which is unusual for our region. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...