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madwx

Fall/Winter 2020/21 Banter Thread

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10 hours ago, Stebo said:

I would give anything for 07-08, perfect roller coaster winter with literally everything even severe.

I would accept a rerun of that winter except for drifting sleet.

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5 hours ago, IWXwx said:

I would accept a rerun of that winter except for drifting sleet.

I think 95% of the people in our sub would love a repeat of 07-08 just like 95% of the people in the Mid-Atlantic want a repeat of 09-10. I think we need a repeat of 1964-65. 

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Just saw a post in the long-range thread, implying that we should be thankful for even being able to track a storm that gave us rain.  Really??  I don't understand. What's exciting about tracking a rainstorm, and debating whether highs will be 38 or 42 in DJF?  

Why are such posters so optimistic? :) I assume people in these threads like winter...so how can we be ok with what is happening??

Not meant to be personal or mean-spirited.  Just some friendly banter on my way out...please take it for what it's worth.  It's not an attack on anyone or any group of people.  It's a surrender post - like laying down your queen in a game of chess. No need to insult or criticize individual posters, or call them out, or create drama.

It's almost as if people believe it's a "win" to have a storm to track, even if there is no snow in our area.  Is that what we've sunk to as a forum?  Maybe we should just start hoping for a cloudy day in DJF...forget snowfall, forget cold temps.  Or let's just say it's a victory because the days are short...hooray!  A 100% guaranteed outcome; let's take all emotion out of it.

I have a met degree and an MS in math, and work in analytics and insurance all day,  Snowmobiling, winter, and family are my only emotional outlets.  If expectations are low around winter, the emotion is gone.  Then, what's the point?  Don't others who want snow and cold see it the same way?  I don't get it...but I guess the forum consensus is pretty clear:  don't be excited about winter, and don't hope for or expect anything.

Someone should pull up the F-6 from XMACIS/NOWData for January 1979 in Antioch.  That's a real winter month.  Of course we don't expect it all the time...but that's what we hope for.  That's what keeps us going...right?  Or, so I once thought...but after what I've seen on this forum, I guess not.  Now we seem to be content with a 3" snowfall that melts in 3 days...and believe it's a victory.  Really???  EDIT: see below...39" snow depth in Antioch on 1/16/1979, and 17 of the first 19 days with sub-zero lows...with 10 days in a row having lows -10 or colder.  What kind of pattern produced that??  Why is it so elusive these days??

Nov 2020 was +7.1F at ORD...and I would actually say it's +9F if you use 1961-90 normals, which is what we should be expecting at a minimum.  And Dec is +6.5F so far, or about +8F with 1961-90 normals.  And these large + anomalies are using a horrible climo to begin with; it actually feels like Nov/Dec have been +15 on temps. 

I feel even worse for ND, SD, MN, WI, MI...north of 45N.  Relative to climo (thinking of cumulative SDDs, current snow depth, and recent temps), it has been even worse for them.  INL has only had 3.5" of snow in Nov/Dec...and Dec temps month-to-date are +12.9F.  I guess we should feel better here that we're all suffering??  Maybe......

When will it change??????  Anyone with a glimmer of hope for a pattern change??  Sure, MSN and DBQ got a decent snowfall last night and this morning...but aren't we all tired of 50-mile wide bands of snow that miss 99% of the forum?  Has it always been this way??  Where are the clippers and widespread 4"+ events with howling winds and people worried about frostbite??  That's what the media says about winters here...what a ******* joke.

Does everyone really think that a climo winter here is ok?  If I expected a climo winter, there would be no point in even participating in the winter threads.  That's why my expectations are always so high; it's because I can't bear to face our climo.  I guess everyone else is ok with their climo.  But why??  It's understandable if the general public thinks this way...but this is a fooking winter weather forum.  We're supposed to be weenies on these forums, excited about winter.  Why aren't more people complaining, and supporting each other? Are we actually ok with the past 3 winters??  Have we all hit the last stage of grief, accepting how horrible it is? I wish I could do the same, I guess...but then I would have to admit that every future winter is going to suck, until I get the **** out of this area.  Fine.  Hopefully soon. 

People on this forum seem to want it both ways.  Expectations are so low...but at the same time people like to brag about our winters and get excited about them.  Which is it??  You can't have both.  Let's just all admit that our winters suck, and be done with it.  Take all the emotion out of it.  I had chosen the other approach:  to hope for winter, and to try bringing others along with me.  So, when that doesn't happen, I get upset.  That's life.  I stand alone on an island...so it's time to stop crying out to the mainland, where no one is listening.  I'm tired of being criticized for hoping for winter, tired of being the only one complaining when we don't get it, and tired of calls to "stop complaining and move north".  It's not fun anymore.

I've been desperately hoping that we'll have winter here, over the past 3 years.  But it's time to give up, and wave the white surrender flag.  Bye, and best wishes to all.

Climatological Data for ANTIOCH, IL - January 1979
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Date
Temperature
HDD
CDD
Precipitation
New Snow
Snow Depth
Maximum
Minimum
Average
Departure
Sum 553 -122 - - 1793 0 3.53 47.1 -
Average 17.8 -3.9 7.0 -14.5 - - - - 24.4
Normal 29.0 13.9 21.5 - 1350 0 1.60 12.7 -
1979-01-01 23 13 18.0 -4.2 47 0 0.90 11.0 19
1979-01-02 15 -15 0.0 -22.1 65 0 0.02 0.3 19
1979-01-03 -5 -20 -12.5 -34.5 77 0 0.00 0.0 19
1979-01-04 0 -15 -7.5 -29.4 72 0 0.00 0.0 19
1979-01-05 4 -15 -5.5 -27.3 70 0 0.00 0.0 19
1979-01-06 3 -19 -8.0 -29.7 73 0 0.00 0.0 19
1979-01-07 11 -11 0.0 -21.6 65 0 0.00 0.0 19
1979-01-08 14 -14 0.0 -21.5 65 0 0.00 0.0 19
1979-01-09 6 -14 -4.0 -25.5 69 0 0.00 0.0 19
1979-01-10 14 -11 1.5 -19.9 63 0 T T 19
1979-01-11 2 -29 -13.5 -34.8 78 0 0.00 0.0 19
1979-01-12 11 -29 -9.0 -30.3 74 0 0.08 2.5 21
1979-01-13 27 10 18.5 -2.7 46 0 0.52 6.0 27
1979-01-14 27 -4 11.5 -9.7 53 0 0.60 8.0 35
1979-01-15 3 -20 -8.5 -29.7 73 0 0.00 0.0 35
1979-01-16 3 -19 -8.0 -29.1 73 0 0.22 4.0 39
1979-01-17 25 -15 5.0 -16.1 60 0 0.05 0.5 34
1979-01-18 24 -7 8.5 -12.6 56 0 0.00 0.0 30
1979-01-19 20 -10 5.0 -16.1 60 0 0.20 3.0 33
1979-01-20 32 18 25.0 3.9 40 0 0.10 1.0 22
1979-01-21 34 22 28.0 6.9 37 0 0.00 0.0 22
1979-01-22 26 8 17.0 -4.2 48 0 0.00 0.0 20
1979-01-23 24 8 16.0 -5.2 49 0 0.00 0.0 20
1979-01-24 30 18 24.0 2.8 41 0 0.45 5.0 25
1979-01-25 22 2 12.0 -9.3 53 0 0.19 3.0 28
1979-01-26 18 -1 8.5 -12.9 56 0 0.00 0.0 28
1979-01-27 24 0 12.0 -9.4 53 0 0.10 1.0 27
1979-01-28 33 22 27.5 6.0 37 0 0.08 1.3 27
1979-01-29 31 22 26.5 4.9 38 0 T T 26
1979-01-30 29 -2 13.5 -8.2 51 0 0.00 0.0 24
1979-01-31 23 5 14.0 -7.9 51 0 0.02 0.5 24
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8 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

Just saw a post in the long-range thread, implying that we should be thankful for even being able to track a storm that gave us rain.  Really??  I don't understand. What's exciting about tracking a rainstorm, and debating whether highs will be 38 or 42 in DJF?  

Why are such posters so optimistic? :) I assume people in these threads like winter...so how can we be ok with what is happening??

Not meant to be personal or mean-spirited.  Just some friendly banter on my way out...please take it for what it's worth.  It's not an attack on anyone or any group of people.  It's a surrender post - like laying down your queen in a game of chess. No need to insult or criticize individual posters, or call them out, or create drama.

It's almost as if people believe it's a "win" to have a storm to track, even if there is no snow in our area.  Is that what we've sunk to as a forum?  Maybe we should just start hoping for a cloudy day in DJF...forget snowfall, forget cold temps.  Or let's just say it's a victory because the days are short...hooray!  A 100% guaranteed outcome; let's take all emotion out of it.

I have a met degree and an MS in math, and work in analytics and insurance all day,  Snowmobiling, winter, and family are my only emotional outlets.  If expectations are low around winter, the emotion is gone.  Then, what's the point?  Don't others who want snow and cold see it the same way?  I don't get it...but I guess the forum consensus is pretty clear:  don't be excited about winter, and don't hope for or expect anything.

Someone should pull up the F-6 from XMACIS/NOWData for January 1979 in Antioch.  That's a real winter month.  Of course we don't expect it all the time...but that's what we hope for.  That's what keeps us going...right?  Or, so I once thought...but after what I've seen on this forum, I guess not.  Now we seem to be content with a 3" snowfall that melts in 3 days...and believe it's a victory.  Really???  EDIT: see below...39" snow depth in Antioch on 1/16/1979, and 17 of the first 19 days with sub-zero lows...with 10 days in a row having lows -10 or colder.  What kind of pattern produced that??  Why is it so elusive these days??

Nov 2020 was +7.1F at ORD...and I would actually say it's +9F if you use 1961-90 normals, which is what we should be expecting at a minimum.  And Dec is +6.5F so far, or about +8F with 1961-90 normals.  And these large + anomalies are using a horrible climo to begin with; it actually feels like Nov/Dec have been +15 on temps. 

I feel even worse for ND, SD, MN, WI, MI...north of 45N.  Relative to climo (thinking of cumulative SDDs, current snow depth, and recent temps), it has been even worse for them.  INL has only had 3.5" of snow in Nov/Dec...and Dec temps month-to-date are +12.9F.  I guess we should feel better here that we're all suffering??  Maybe......

When will it change??????  Anyone with a glimmer of hope for a pattern change??  Sure, MSN and DBQ got a decent snowfall last night and this morning...but aren't we all tired of 50-mile wide bands of snow that miss 99% of the forum?  Has it always been this way??  Where are the clippers and widespread 4"+ events with howling winds and people worried about frostbite??  That's what the media says about winters here...what a ******* joke.

Does everyone really think that a climo winter here is ok?  If I expected a climo winter, there would be no point in even participating in the winter threads.  That's why my expectations are always so high; it's because I can't bear to face our climo.  I guess everyone else is ok with their climo.  But why??  It's understandable if the general public thinks this way...but this is a fooking winter weather forum.  We're supposed to be weenies on these forums, excited about winter.  Why aren't more people complaining, and supporting each other? Are we actually ok with the past 3 winters??  Have we all hit the last stage of grief, accepting how horrible it is? I wish I could do the same, I guess...but then I would have to admit that every future winter is going to suck, until I get the **** out of this area.  Fine.  Hopefully soon. 

People on this forum seem to want it both ways.  Expectations are so low...but at the same time people like to brag about our winters and get excited about them.  Which is it??  You can't have both.  Let's just all admit that our winters suck, and be done with it.  Take all the emotion out of it.  I had chosen the other approach:  to hope for winter, and to try bringing others along with me.  So, when that doesn't happen, I get upset.  That's life.  I stand alone on an island...so it's time to stop crying out to the mainland, where no one is listening.  I'm tired of being criticized for hoping for winter, tired of being the only one complaining when we don't get it, and tired of calls to "stop complaining and move north".  It's not fun anymore.

I've been desperately hoping that we'll have winter here, over the past 3 years.  But it's time to give up, and wave the white surrender flag.  Bye, and best wishes to all.

Climatological Data for ANTIOCH, IL - January 1979
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Date
Temperature
HDD
CDD
Precipitation
New Snow
Snow Depth
Maximum
Minimum
Average
Departure
Sum 553 -122 - - 1793 0 3.53 47.1 -
Average 17.8 -3.9 7.0 -14.5 - - - - 24.4
Normal 29.0 13.9 21.5 - 1350 0 1.60 12.7 -
1979-01-01 23 13 18.0 -4.2 47 0 0.90 11.0 19
1979-01-02 15 -15 0.0 -22.1 65 0 0.02 0.3 19
1979-01-03 -5 -20 -12.5 -34.5 77 0 0.00 0.0 19
1979-01-04 0 -15 -7.5 -29.4 72 0 0.00 0.0 19
1979-01-05 4 -15 -5.5 -27.3 70 0 0.00 0.0 19
1979-01-06 3 -19 -8.0 -29.7 73 0 0.00 0.0 19
1979-01-07 11 -11 0.0 -21.6 65 0 0.00 0.0 19
1979-01-08 14 -14 0.0 -21.5 65 0 0.00 0.0 19
1979-01-09 6 -14 -4.0 -25.5 69 0 0.00 0.0 19
1979-01-10 14 -11 1.5 -19.9 63 0 T T 19
1979-01-11 2 -29 -13.5 -34.8 78 0 0.00 0.0 19
1979-01-12 11 -29 -9.0 -30.3 74 0 0.08 2.5 21
1979-01-13 27 10 18.5 -2.7 46 0 0.52 6.0 27
1979-01-14 27 -4 11.5 -9.7 53 0 0.60 8.0 35
1979-01-15 3 -20 -8.5 -29.7 73 0 0.00 0.0 35
1979-01-16 3 -19 -8.0 -29.1 73 0 0.22 4.0 39
1979-01-17 25 -15 5.0 -16.1 60 0 0.05 0.5 34
1979-01-18 24 -7 8.5 -12.6 56 0 0.00 0.0 30
1979-01-19 20 -10 5.0 -16.1 60 0 0.20 3.0 33
1979-01-20 32 18 25.0 3.9 40 0 0.10 1.0 22
1979-01-21 34 22 28.0 6.9 37 0 0.00 0.0 22
1979-01-22 26 8 17.0 -4.2 48 0 0.00 0.0 20
1979-01-23 24 8 16.0 -5.2 49 0 0.00 0.0 20
1979-01-24 30 18 24.0 2.8 41 0 0.45 5.0 25
1979-01-25 22 2 12.0 -9.3 53 0 0.19 3.0 28
1979-01-26 18 -1 8.5 -12.9 56 0 0.00 0.0 28
1979-01-27 24 0 12.0 -9.4 53 0 0.10 1.0 27
1979-01-28 33 22 27.5 6.0 37 0 0.08 1.3 27
1979-01-29 31 22 26.5 4.9 38 0 T T 26
1979-01-30 29 -2 13.5 -8.2 51 0 0.00 0.0 24
1979-01-31 23 5 14.0 -7.9 51 0 0.02 0.5 24

Snowmobiling as a hobby around here is incongruent

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25 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

Not meant to be personal or mean-spirited.  Just some friendly banter on my way out...please take it for what it's worth.  

Are you leaving the board or what?  Weather is cyclical, we'll have good winter weather again.  I hope you're able to move to N Wisconsin sooner than you planned.   

Everything is Okay, it's early.
 

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Beavis, you are clearly in the minority here on how you judge winters.  I don't agree with how you evaluate winters but that's ok.  There's not a "right" or "wrong." 

The current pattern ain't a good one overall.  It's just cold enough to give the threat of snow somewhere from time to time, but not your classic, deep winter pattern.  Hopefully that changes. 

This is the time to take a break if you feel like you need one.  Then you can rejoin us when times are better.

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55 minutes ago, weatherbo said:

That's your takeaway from his post?

You are incongruent.

Not meant to be hurtful. I hope Beavis continues to post on this board. Just thought it was unfortunate to have snowmobiling as a hobby in this area since it affords so few opportunities 

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Here are the lowest snow totals for Chicago through December 20.  Currently at 0.7" and given how the upcoming week+ looks, there's a good chance 2020 will remain on this list.

Can ignore 1996.  Some missing data and I know that there happened to be accumulating snow during that time.  So the real record for least snow through Dec 20 is 0.2"

 Screenshot_20201212-170617.thumb.png.fa86f076b5e3b77d0f93f498c786c153.png

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5 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Here are the lowest snow totals for Chicago through December 20.  Currently at 0.7" and given how the upcoming week+ looks, there's a good chance 2020 will remain on this list.

Can ignore 1996.  Some missing data and I know that there happened to be accumulating snow during that time.  So the real record for least snow through Dec 20 is 0.2"

 Screenshot_20201212-170617.thumb.png.fa86f076b5e3b77d0f93f498c786c153.png

And how did those top 10 winters fair out in the end, 1996 aside. 

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my cleveland suburbs next 8 days of "winter" =

Sunday(tomorrow) 38 Sunshine

Monday 34 sunshine

Tuesday 34 sunshine

Wednesday the big storm to the south and east may sneak an inch up here to the shoreline of lake erie

Thursday 34 mostly cloudy no precip

Friday 36 Sunshine

Saturday 39 Sunshine

next Sunday 37 Sunshine 

Fun -_- 

 

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15 hours ago, Cary67 said:

Not meant to be hurtful. I hope Beavis continues to post on this board. Just thought it was unfortunate to have snowmobiling as a hobby in this area since it affords so few opportunities 

Also....Chicago just recently had 4 straight 50"+ seasons from 2007-08 thru 2010-11 (53-60") for the first time in 136 years of record. If beavis wants to have unrealistic standards, at least don't discredit the good that HAS qualified for his winter grading criteria. And what was so bad about winter 2018-19? Chicago got almost 50"and had temps of -30° in January lol. 

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2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Also....Chicago just recently had 4 straight 50"+ seasons from 2007-08 thru 2010-11 (53-60") for the first time in 136 years of record. If beavis wants to have unrealistic standards, at least don't discredit the good that HAS qualified for his winter grading criteria. And what was so bad about winter 2018-19? Chicago got almost 50"and had temps of -30° in January lol. 

Good snowfall winters for this area. Won't argue that. I would say his standards for winter may be explained by the fact that he likes to snowmobile around here and unfortunately that requires cold and snowpack conditions that aren't too prevalent. Even those good snow winters had very transient snowmobile conditions here. Just my opinion but don't know why anyone would own snowmobiles in Chicago unless you run to the UP of Michigan alot. Same as owning a swimming pool in Northern Michigan.

 

 

 

 

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Get a hobby that involves you, the human, more. Instead of snowmobiling, try snowshoeing or cross-country skiing. It's much cheaper and gets you exercise and some vitamin D, crucial for mental health, especially during a pandemic. :)

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Got an escaped prisoner alert on my phone.  Don't recall getting one of those before.  Amber alerts, yeah.  This guy was being extradited from Texas and somehow escaped custody despite wearing a belly chain, cuffs and leg restraints.  

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So, I was just reviewing my outdoor photos taken around southern Wisconsin during the 2006-'07 winter and I noticed something...

In photos taken on December 29, 2006, there was BARE GROUND. Not a trace of snow anywhere.

In photos taken on March 11, 2007, there were large dirty piles/glaciers on every curb and in every parking lot. The melt-off was well underway, but clearly a LOT of snow fell during that roughly 10-week interval. I don't recall the particulars of that winter in southern Wisconsin very well since I spent the bulk of it in northeast Wisconsin while attending UW-Green Bay (kind of like what @Geoboy645 is doing now), but I recall it being pretty snowy up there as well.

So there is hope...maybe it won't meet Beavis standards, but at least it's something for the rest of us.

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1 hour ago, CheeselandSkies said:

So, I was just reviewing my outdoor photos taken around southern Wisconsin during the 2006-'07 winter and I noticed something...

In photos taken on December 29, 2006, there was BARE GROUND. Not a trace of snow anywhere.

In photos taken on March 11, 2007, there were large dirty piles/glaciers on every curb and in every parking lot. The melt-off was well underway, but clearly a LOT of snow fell during that roughly 10-week interval. I don't recall the particulars of that winter in southern Wisconsin very well since I spent the bulk of it in northeast Wisconsin while attending UW-Green Bay (kind of like what @Geoboy645 is doing now), but I recall it being pretty snowy up there as well.

So there is hope...maybe it won't meet Beavis standards, but at least it's something for the rest of us.

Big snowstorm in late February that year.  Got 15”-20” with it.  I remember we were only expecting about a foot but the WAA wing really over performed 

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Damn. Just damn.

Had it all figured out. 6:30pm flight into Logan today. Was going to take advantage of WFH and chase this one down.

Flight was just cancelled. The Gods owe us one here. Geez.

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6 minutes ago, mimillman said:

Damn. Just damn.

Had it all figured out. 6:30pm flight into Logan today. Was going to take advantage of WFH and chase this one down.

Flight was just cancelled. The Gods owe us one here. Geez.

if it makes you feel better, we're getting some solid model agreement on CAD in the long range!

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17 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

We need a repeat of the February 1965 snowstorm. 

20" locally. I'd gladly take it again. 

 That was one heck of a snowstorm apparently. The 1960s were not a good decade for big snowstorms locally, we missed most of the good ones. The blizzard of 1965 was by far the biggest storm of the decade, dropping 10-14" of snow (11" officially) and lots of drifting. 

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Only storm I've seen since moving here even remotely comparable to a good northeast snowstorm was GHD II . Incidentally, that was also the last time I can remember 10"+ downtown, and that was nearly 6 years ago.

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1", 10", 20", I don't care.  I just want some flakes to fall IMBY.  The snowfall deficits are getting pretty ugly around here.  Might be worse in the UP in absolute numbers, but they have at least had snow this year.  At least there is a sign that things might get a little more active.  At this point I will take my chances with any precip falling from the sky.  Eventually the blind squirrel will find a nut, especially in this part of the country.

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1 hour ago, mimillman said:

Damn. Just damn.

Had it all figured out. 6:30pm flight into Logan today. Was going to take advantage of WFH and chase this one down.

Flight was just cancelled. The Gods owe us one here. Geez.

You should have left yesterday, definitely a $$$$ move. 

Now that I'm WFH as well, I might start doing the same thing for big/historic storms.  

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1 hour ago, mimillman said:

Only storm I've seen since moving here even remotely comparable to a good northeast snowstorm was GHD II . Incidentally, that was also the last time I can remember 10"+ downtown, and that was nearly 6 years ago.

What part of the northeast are you from? I'm guessing Boston based on your earlier post? Sorry to hear about the flight. my brother lived downtown Chicago and he's often missing the best snows compared to the suburbs but the Feb 2015 storm he got some crazy pics. A Midwest winter climate will be colder with more days of snowfall but the big storms just won't compare. Just how it is. 

 

Funny story...my brother is living in Willimantic CT for a year or so. His girlfriend loves snow. I've already told them that if they get a legit northeast storm im coming to visit. She was just pining for some snow and kept telling me she was so jealous when we had snow to start the month. Then they were anticipating a noreaster and got a rain logged 1 inch of snow. Poor girl has been dying to see some snow. They are now safely back in MI for the holidays...and CT will see its biggest storm in 5 years lol. At least she gets some snow today.

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6 minutes ago, Powerball said:

You should have left yesterday, definitely a $$$$ move. 

Now that I'm WFH as well, I might start doing the same thing for big/historic storms.  

Had the chance to leave yesterday, missed the boat.

I would no joke pay $500 to have that flight put back on the manifest today.

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