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Tropical Storm Gamma


olafminesaw
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Starting a thread, now that continued organization is likely and landfall along the gulf coast is an increasing threat. 

The 6z HWRF is highlighting this evening, into tommorow for a period of fairly quick intensification, once the system gets more stacked. After that track/intensity becomes nearly impossible to predict, with weak steering flow.

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1 hour ago, olafminesaw said:

Starting a thread, now that continued organization is likely and landfall along the gulf coast is an increasing threat. 

The 6z HWRF is highlighting this evening, into tommorow for a period of fairly quick intensification, once the system gets more stacked. After that track/intensity becomes nearly impossible to predict, with weak steering flow.

Short term question is interaction with the Yucatan which would obviously hinder development. Longer term good chance this gets sheared apart in the Gulf. Most models just kill it once it gets into the GOM with just the low level remnant circulation moving west.

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The only place in the GOM where where shear is forecasted to remain low (and there's little dry air) is the Bay of Campeche. There have been a few GFS runs showing a significant cyclone there (not the Euro), but most just shove it well SW, after the Yucatan, towards land, without much chances to develop.

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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gamma Advisory Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL252020
1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 02 2020

...GAMMA FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE LANDFALL IN THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA TOMORROW...
...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN THREAT...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 86.1W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Herrero to Cabo Catoche Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South of Punta Herrero to Puerto Costa Maya Mexico
* West of Cabo Catoche to Dzilam Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gamma was
located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 86.1 West. Gamma is
moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h).  A slower
northwestward motion is expected during the next couple of days,
followed by a turn to the west or west-southwest. On the forecast
track, the center of Gamma should be near the northeastern
Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is expected before Gamma moves inland over the
northeastern Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday.  After landfall, slight
weakening or little change in strength is expected.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air
Force Hurricane Hunters is 998 mb (29.47 inches).
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Tropical Storm Gamma Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL252020
1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 02 2020

A few hours ago, the Air Force Hurricane Hunters found maximum
winds of around 35 kt in the northeastern quadrant of the cyclone,
which was the reason why it was upgraded to Tropical Storm Gamma.
Since then, there have been no stronger winds reported so the
initial intensity remains 35 kt.  The minimum pressure estimated by
the aircraft is quite low at 998 mb, so it seems likely that
the winds will increase soon.  The storm also has better banding
features compared to hours ago and deep convection has also been
persisting near the center.

Fixes from the aircraft indicate that Gamma has jogged to the left 
recently, but smoothing through the short-term jog suggests an 
initial motion of 310/8 kt.  The tropical storm is expected to 
remain on the western periphery of a subtropical high during the 
next couple of days, and that should cause the storm to move slowly 
northwestward during that time period.  This track should take Gamma 
across the northern Yucatan Peninsula and perhaps over the extreme 
south-central Gulf of Mexico this weekend. By early next week, a 
mid-level ridge is expected to build to the north of the storm while 
another low pressure area is forecast to develop to the east of 
Gamma. This change in the steering pattern is expected to cause the 
storm to make a sharp left turn toward the Bay of Campeche, but 
continue to move at a fairly slow forward speed. The models have 
shifted well to the south from 48-120 hours this cycle, and the NHC 
track forecast has been adjusted in that direction.  Despite the 
shift, most of the reliable models are south of the new official 
track forecast, and future southward adjustments could be necessary.

Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for additional
strengthening until the cyclone reaches the Yucatan Peninsula on
Saturday, and the NHC intensity forecast shows a slightly higher
landfall intensity there.  Once the system moves over the Yucatan
Peninsula and the extreme southern Gulf of Mexico, the combination
of land interaction, an increase in shear, and drier air should
limit the amount of strengthening into next week.  At this point,
no model shows Gamma becoming a hurricane, and the NHC intensity
forecast shows little change in strength for much of the forecast
period.

The biggest threat from this large and slow-moving storm is the
the potential for heavy rainfall and flooding, particularly near
and over mountainous terrain.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Gamma is expected to produce heavy rainfall that could result in
life-threatening flash flooding over portions of the Yucatan
Peninsula, far western Cuba and well away from the center in
the Mexican states of Campeche, Tabasco, and northern Chiapas.

2. Gamma is forecast to bring tropical storm conditions to portions
of the Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday, where a Tropical Storm
Warning is in effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/0300Z 19.1N  86.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  03/1200Z 19.8N  86.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  04/0000Z 20.8N  87.6W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 36H  04/1200Z 21.6N  88.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 48H  05/0000Z 22.0N  88.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  05/1200Z 21.9N  88.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  06/0000Z 21.7N  90.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  07/0000Z 21.0N  91.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  08/0000Z 20.3N  92.8W   45 KT  50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Landfall. Gamma didn't pull off the upgrade. Trivial as far as impacts, but obviously those seasonal numbers....

000
WTNT65 KNHC 031658
TCUAT5

Tropical Storm Gamma Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL252020
1200 PM CDT Sat Oct 03 2020

...GAMMA MAKES LANDFALL NEAR TULUM, MEXICO...

Surface observations and satellite images indicate that the center 
of Tropical Storm Gamma made landfall in the northeast Yucatan 
Peninsula near Tulum, Mexico, around 1145 AM CDT.  The storm was 
very close to hurricane strength at landfall, with maximum 
sustained winds near 70 MPH (110 MPH) with higher gusts.

A weather station at Xel-Ha Park, along the Yucatan coast just 
north of Tulum, reported a sustained wind of 55 mph (89 km/h) and a 
gust to 68 mph (109 km/h) within the past hour.


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CDT...1700 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.2N 87.5W
ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM N OF TULUM MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Pasch

 

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We are getting rain here right now on the west central Florida coast in October. Always a treat, and almost always a tropical system this time of year (even though a cold front did come through this past week).

I think we'd be in a drought this summer if not for the steady stream of TCs.

 

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18 minutes ago, Amped said:

Models combining Gamma and 92L into the ultimate slopgyre

Figuring here October 10 through 14 is a time to watch for Florida Gulf Coast. If we get through that, we'll start to relax.

Not that we are not starting to relax even now...

But hey, November is never a slam dunk finished season either.

I may start to watch the blizzard forums...

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