Allsnow Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 Next weeks cold shot looking brief but strong on the eps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 The sun is breaking through the clouds here for the first time in what feels like a week+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 Holy sh*t. Edit: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 50 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Next weeks cold shot looking brief but strong on the eps. Yeah after the brief cold shot monday into tuesday, we quickly bounce back to 60 degrees wednesday and that looks like the start of a prolonged warmer than normal pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 56 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Next weeks cold shot looking brief but strong on the eps. Yeah, we get 2 decent cold shots before the big NAO reversal and moderating temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 8 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: Yeah after the brief cold shot monday into tuesday, we quickly bounce back to 60 degrees wednesday and that looks like the start of a prolonged warmer than normal pattern. 8 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: Yeah after the brief cold shot monday into tuesday, we quickly bounce back to 60 degrees wednesday and that looks like the start of a prolonged warmer than normal pattern. 4 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yeah, we get 2 decent cold shots before the big NAO reversal and moderating temperatures. Yep, unfavorable mjo after the 7th with strengthening Pv will make the flow more zonal. Only good news is the vortex will not be going towards AK like the eps was showing a few days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 For the most part, it will below normal from this past Sunday to mid next week. Yesterday here was spot on average. So like 10-11 days or so below normal it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 19 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Yep, unfavorable mjo after the 7th with strengthening Pv will make the flow more zonal. Only good news is the vortex will not be going towards AK like the eps was showing a few days ago. Yeah, looks like the vortex will verify over Greenland instead of Alaska. New run Old run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 41 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Yep, unfavorable mjo after the 7th with strengthening Pv will make the flow more zonal. Only good news is the vortex will not be going towards AK like the eps was showing a few days ago. Maybe that's good news. The last few years with cold/snow in November led to a torch/snowless winter. At least the pattern looks different for once. Of course it could end up like 11/12 where every month torches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 At Noon, some drier air had worked into the region. Partial to full sunshine was present in an area running from eastern Pennsylvania, across central New Jersey and into southeastern New York State. Clouds will likely increase later in the day with temperatures topping out mainly in the lower 60s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 9 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Maybe that's good news. The last few years with cold/snow in November led to a torch/snowless winter. At least the pattern looks different for once. Of course it could end up like 11/12 where every month torches. Yeah I've learned early/mid Nov cold generally is worthless-too early for snow and then the pattern flips by Mid Dec and it's torch city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: Yeah I've learned early/mid Nov cold generally is worthless-too early for snow and then the pattern flips by Mid Dec and it's torch city No need to waste a good pattern in November. Save it for when it counts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Yeah, looks like the vortex will verify over Greenland instead of Alaska. New run Old run The ridging by the Aleutians I think helped keep it away from AK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 56 minutes ago, Allsnow said: The ridging by the Aleutians I think helped keep it away from AK Yeah, the PNA is also more positive than we typically see during a La Niña September and October. That big drought ridge over the West continues to make headlines. You can see that the ridge in that location doesn’t really match La Ninas in the last 20 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 19 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yeah, the PNA is also more positive than we typically see during a La Niña September and October. That big drought ridge over the West continues to make headlines. You can see that the ridge in that location doesn’t really match La Ninas in the last 20 years. ::Scratches head:: This year's Sept./Oct. composite actually seems directly opposite to how Niña's typically behave in Canada and the NATL too. Do we know why? And are we going to wait around all winter for a Niña atmospheric "coupling" (hope I'm using the term correctly) like we did last year with the Niño? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 27 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yeah, the PNA is also more positive than we typically see during a La Niña September and October. That big drought ridge over the West continues to make headlines. You can see that the ridge in that location doesn’t really match La Ninas in the last 20 years. Yep, I honestly think that its a response from all the warm waters off the coast of CA. Typical Niña has cold waters there that makes a -pna more favorable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 38 minutes ago, Eduardo said: ::Scratches head:: This year's Sept./Oct. composite actually seems directly opposite to how Niña's typically behave in Canada and the NATL too. Do we know why? And are we going to wait around all winter for a Niña atmospheric "coupling" (hope I'm using the term correctly) like we did last year with the Niño? Maybe it’s related to the record WPAC warm pool? I read some papers on how the anomalous ridging near the West Coast since 2013 could be related to the record SSTs in the Tropical WPAC. Then there were other papers that suggest a link between the record Pacific basin SSTs and the low Arctic sea ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 GFS has 12 60-Degree Days out of the next 16 days, and no precipitation for the first 10 days of November. Gonna bea bore if this is correct. Typical 500mb Heights during first 12 days of November would be 5680m to 5640m, and for 850mb T's +5C to +3C. Starting November 3, these seem to be exceeded regularly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 I'm in Liberty NY 90 Miles from the GW bridge and we are poised ( hopefully )to get a few to several inches of snow from Thursday night into Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 I doubt you’ll get more than a dusting. Nyc is all rain in my opinionThis is an elevation based event Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 37 minutes ago, sferic said: This is an elevation based event Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk I heard the same thing in 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 Just now, TriPol said: I heard the same thing in 2011. I got 3 inches in Lynbrook in SW nass cnty and 8 inches here in Liberty NY and it was predicted and not a surprise for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 4 minutes ago, TriPol said: I heard the same thing in 2011. 2011 featured a bombing low-this is much flatter/weaker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 Temperatures again rose in the upper 50s and lower 60s today. Tomorrow will feature similar temperatures, but a much colder air mass will move into the region later this week. Out West, there was again widespread record cold. Hebron, Colorado recorded a temperature of -33° this morning. Select records included: Aberdeen, SD: 1° (old record: 10°, 1919) Albuquerque: 19° (old record: 21°, 1913) ***Tied Monthly Record*** Cheyenne: 0° (old record: 5°, 1925) Denver: 8° (old record: 11°, 1925) Laramie, WY: -26° (old record: -16°, 2011) ***New Monthly Record*** Rapid City: 2° (old record: 11°, 2019) Tucson: 32° (old record: 35°, 1970) Zeta will very likely make landfall along the U.S. Gulf Coast tomorrow and then turn north and eastward and then exit from an area running from the Delmarva Peninsula to perhaps the New Jersey coast. As a result, Thursday into part of Friday could see a potentially significant precipitation event in the region. A general 1"-3" rainfall appears likely. The potential exists that cold air from eastern Canada could be drawn southward to produce at least some snowfall in an area running from northern Pennsylvania, across central New York State, and into central New England. Behind the storm, the coldest air of the season will briefly push into the region. November will likely commence on a cool note with the first week winding up cooler than normal. A prolonged period of above normal temperatures could develop during the second week of November. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.4°C for the week centered around October 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.87°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.15°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least into mid-winter. The SOI was -3.48. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +2.257. That is the highest figure since the AO was +3.174 on March 25, 2020. On October 26 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.940 (RMM). The October 25-adjusted amplitude was 2.000. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. A predominant EPO+/AO+ pattern is likely for winter 2020-21. In response, it is likely that the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas will see a warmer than normal winter with potentially below normal snowfall. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 95% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October. October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.0°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 0.13 in this part of Wantage NJ so far this morning... (0.19 this past Sunday-Monday). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 The last 4 days of October are averaging 51degs. Making this 48degs., or about -5.0. Month to date is 59.5[+2.0]. October should end at 58.0[+1.1]. All models have 2.0" to 2.3" for the Zeta remnants. There are multiple days with lows in 30's into November. Lowest is the CMC at 27*, EURO at 30*, GFS at 37*. A warmup should be expected Nov.05-13. Tropics: 25.1N 91.5W headed for NOLa this evening. 58.7N 22.7W- to North Sea. 56*(80%RH) here at 6am, street wet. 55*(81%RH) at 7am. 54*(86%RH) at 7:30am. 58*(94%RH) by 11am. 56*(95%RH) at Noon. 55*(97%RH) at 1pm. 58*(90%RH) again bet. 4pm-6pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 16 hours ago, Allsnow said: Yep, I honestly think that its a response from all the warm waters off the coast of CA. Typical Niña has cold waters there that makes a -pna more favorable Yeah, the ridge locked in near the West Coast keeps warming the SSTs. So we got the smallest north-south SST gradient in the NE Pacific. These are the warmest NE Pacific SSTs we have seen with a La Niña of this strength. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 6 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yeah, the ridge locked in near the West Coast keeps warming the SSTs. So we got the smallest north-south SST gradient in the NE Pacific. These are the warmest SSTs we have seen with a La Niña if this strength. Interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 @bluewave it appears some things that correlated in the past do not show or result in the same outcomes in this new regime with the WPAC warmth and record IOD. Maybe even throw in Greenland ice melt as well. The QBO's sudden shifts recently is one, and this post about the October - NAO and active hurricane years is another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 13 hours ago, sferic said: I got 3 inches in Lynbrook in SW nass cnty and 8 inches here in Liberty NY and it was predicted and not a surprise for NYC 3 inches in Lynbrook? It was more like 1.5 inches also confirmed at JFK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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