qg_omega Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 I miss real weather it’s been very zzzzzz here since the tropical storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 Nice rainstorm for the coast with snow for the far interior on the gfs. Models are starting to bring back the gulf low they were once showing. Just give us some rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 Another day of clouds in this warm up....meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 Some sun here today, 70 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 socked in here today....cloudy and 63 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 Record high temperatures today well away from the marine influence. Pretty impressive for Syracuse to reach 80° in late October. Almanac for SYRACUSE HANCOCK INTL AP, NY October 23, 2020 Daily Data Observed Normal Record Highest Record Lowest Max Temperature M 57 77 in 1991 34 in 1969 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Intensewind002 Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 Had a high of 69 around a couple hour s ago when the sun peeked out briefly, but it's gone back down to 67 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 Look at the nearly 50 degree spread over Michigan, WOW ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: Nice rainstorm for the coast with snow for the far interior on the gfs. Models are starting to bring back the gulf low they were once showing. Just give us some rain This will be a nice test to see if the primary storm tracks that have been locked in last few years can show more variation. The last 2 cold seasons were dominated by cutter, hugger, and suppressed southern stream storm tracks. The models have a SW bowling ball closed low that ejects to the east next week. At the same time, we have very strong PAC Jet along the Northern Tier. So it will be interesting to see if this low can run far enough north for a significant event here or it gets suppressed south like the 12z Euro. Benchmark track lows have been a rarity here since March 2018 ended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Record high temperatures today well away from the marine influence. Pretty impressive for Syracuse to reach 80° in late October. Almanac for SYRACUSE HANCOCK INTL AP, NY October 23, 2020 Daily Data Observed Normal Record Highest Record Lowest Max Temperature M 57 77 in 1991 34 in 1969 Where do you get those charts from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 My parents are driving to Pittsburgh today and reported 81 degrees in Altoona. Crazy stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 1 hour ago, bluewave said: This will be a nice test to see if the primary storm tracks that have been locked in last few years can show more variation. The last 2 cold seasons were dominated by cutter, hugger, and suppressed southern stream storm tracks. The models have a SW bowling ball closed low that ejects to the east next week. At the same time, we have very strong PAC Jet along the Northern Tier. So it will be interesting to see if this low can run far enough north for a significant event here or it gets suppressed south like the 12z Euro. Benchmark track lows have been a rarity here since March 2018 ended. The eps mean is well north of the op this afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 Snowy football game alert for Denver on Sunday. Broncos play the chargers at home at 4pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: Snowy football game alert for Denver on Sunday. Broncos play the chargers at home at 4pm Cold too! High of 23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 This is getting out pass 300hrs on the eps but around nov 5th it has the country in pac flow with GOA sitting over Ak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 3 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Snowy football game alert for Denver on Sunday. Broncos play the chargers at home at 4pm Yup, been tracking that all week, they’ll have some wind as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: This is getting out pass 300hrs on the eps but around nov 5th it has the country in pac flow with GOA sitting over Ak. gives me nightmares about last winter.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 Just now, IrishRob17 said: Yup, been tracking that all week, they’ll have some wind as well. Should be fun. That’s a ridiculous cold airmass for this time of the year out there. It will bring snow to Colorado, Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 57 minutes ago, JerseyWx said: Where do you get those charts from? Meteostar http://wxweb.meteostar.com/meteogram/link.shtml?choice=KSYR 12 minutes ago, Allsnow said: The eps mean is well north of the op this afternoon I just saw them. The control and other members are more amped than the OP. Even if the low ends up hugging, it would be nice to see see a southern stream low phase or not get suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 This weather sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 The storm responsible for heavy snow in the Northern Rockies tonight and tomorrow will bring a near-record to record cold air mass into the Northern Rockies and Northern Plains. Numerous single-digit low temperatures will be likely on Sunday morning in parts of Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wyoming. A few locations could even experience subzero low temperatures. The cold will then expand into the Central Plains for Monday and Tuesday. However, much of this cold air will likely remain confined west of the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions until the closing days of this month. A brief but fairly sharp shot of cooler air could arrive during the weekend in the Northeast. During the closing days of the the month, some of the cold air from out West will spill into the region. November could commence on a cool note. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.4°C for the week centered around October 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.85°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.10°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least into mid-winter. The SOI was +9.22. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.021. On October 22 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 2.543 (RMM). The October 21-adjusted amplitude was 2.469. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. From that larger pool of 10 La Niña winters that followed El Niño winters, there were four cases where October saw the MJO in Phases 4-6 for 20 days or more, as was the case this year: 1983-84, 1988-89, 1998-99, and 2016-17. All four cases featured an EPO+/AO+ winter. Both 1988-89 and 1998-99 saw the MJO in Phase 5 with an amplitude of 2.000 or above as has occurred this year. Both those winters featured below to much below normal snowfall in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. Select snowfall seasonal snowfall totals were: 1988-89: Boston: 15.5" New York City: 8.1" Philadelphia: 11.2" 1998-99: Boston: 36.4" New York City: 12.7" Philadelphia: 12.5" This is not cast in stone. However, this is a plausible scenario should things evolve toward an EPO+/AO+ winter as is suggested on some of the current seasonal guidance. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 84% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October. October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.5°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 4 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: The storm responsible for heavy snow in the Northern Rockies tonight and tomorrow will bring a near-record to record cold air mass into the Northern Rockies and Northern Plains. Numerous single-digit low temperatures will be likely on Sunday morning in parts of Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wyoming. A few locations could even experience subzero low temperatures. The cold will then expand into the Central Plains for Monday and Tuesday. However, much of this cold air will likely remain confined west of the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions until the closing days of this month. A brief but fairly sharp shot of cooler air could arrive during the weekend in the Northeast. During the closing days of the the month, some of the cold air from out West will spill into the region. November could commence on a cool note. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.4°C for the week centered around October 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.85°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.10°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least into mid-winter. The SOI was +9.22. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.021. On October 22 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 2.543 (RMM). The October 21-adjusted amplitude was 2.469. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. From that larger pool of 10 La Niña winters that followed El Niño winters, there were four cases where October saw the MJO in Phases 4-6 for 20 days or more, as was the case this year: 1983-84, 1988-89, 1998-99, and 2016-17. All four cases featured an EPO+/AO+ winter. Both 1988-89 and 1998-99 saw the MJO in Phase 5 with an amplitude of 2.000 or above as has occurred this year. Both those winters featured below to much below normal snowfall in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. Select snowfall seasonal snowfall totals were: 1988-89: Boston: 15.5" New York City: 8.1" Philadelphia: 11.2" 1998-99: Boston: 36.4" New York City: 12.7" Philadelphia: 12.5" This is not cast in stone. However, this is a plausible scenario should things evolve toward an EPO+/AO+ winter as is suggested on some of the current seasonal guidance. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 84% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October. October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.5°. Amazing Don, those 3rd week in October single digit lows may be lower than the lowest CPK reading for our entire cold season. Serves us right for having an affair with a warm ocean. As always .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 6 minutes ago, rclab said: Amazing Don, those 3rd week in October single digit lows may be lower than the lowest CPK reading for our entire cold season. Serves us right for having an affair with a warm ocean. As always .... Great Falls could even dip below zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 24, 2020 Share Posted October 24, 2020 Under 200 hours I just want a big storm lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted October 24, 2020 Share Posted October 24, 2020 I guess this doesn't count Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 24, 2020 Share Posted October 24, 2020 The last 8 days of October are averaging 55deg., making it 50degs., or about -3.0. Month to date is 60.4[+2.3]. Oct. should end at about 57.7[+0.8]. 62*(97%RH) here at 6am, overcast. 64*(94%RH) by Noon. 68* between 2pm-5pm with a bit of sun and falling RH, now 68% at 5pm. 54*(55%RH} by 10pm. Tropics: 36.7N 62.3W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 24, 2020 Share Posted October 24, 2020 Morning thoughts... A strong cold front will sweep across the region today. Ahead of the front, today will be partly to mostly cloudy and still mild. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 68° Newark: 71° Philadelphia: 74° Tomorrow will be sharply colder with the temperature struggling just to reach the lower 50s in many parts of the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted October 24, 2020 Share Posted October 24, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 24, 2020 Share Posted October 24, 2020 They made this model for the weenies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 24, 2020 Share Posted October 24, 2020 For those watching the progress of the cold and snow in the Northern Rockies, Great Falls, MT set daily records for the minimum temperature and snowfall yesterday. Yesterday’s low temperature was 3 degrees (old record” 10 degrees, 1957). Daily snowfall was 4.0” (old record: 2.8”, 1954). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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