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wdrag

Spotty 3+" rainfall NJ/LI Midnight Thu AM-9AM Fri 9/10-11/20

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2 hours ago, winterwx21 said:

Frustrating that the heavier rain missed this area this morning. Only about a tenth of an inch here. If everything misses this afternoon, we will barely have gotten enough to water the gardens. Frustrating considering the potential this event had. Hopefully the current models are wrong about everything missing to the south and east this afternoon.

I think we will get into the action late this afternoon into the evening 

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1 hour ago, Rjay said:

This is the third such one of these events since 2011 that really straddled the south shore.   The Islip deluge in 2013 stretched a bit further inland.

 

*this is off the top of my head.  I'm sure @bluewavebluewave will know.  

Yeah, this was among the heaviest events since 2010 for the general South Shore area

2018

8-7.......North Merrick..............4.73

2017

10-30...ISP....4.02

2015

9-10....Wantagh...6.05

2014

8-13.....ISP....13.51...Massapequa....8.20.....Wantagh...7.84

5-1......JFK....4.92.

2013

6-8...ISP....4.58...

2012

6-25...ISP...4.16

2011

8-28...JFK....5.03...

8-15...JFK....7.80..ISP...6.49....Lido Beach....10.20

2010

3-30...JFK...4.37..ISP...4.82

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3 hours ago, wdrag said:

Am  not quite as concerned about Sunday... not ruling it out but I think Sunday's event will be less on LI... faster flow and not quite as extensive PWAT.  Potential yes, needs to be monitored.

I think late today-tonight is the key for me. IF the next big band occurs s of LI...that will be the best solution. Copiague near Amitityville is our largest amount that I can find so far (7+").  By the way, there was very little or no lighting associated with the event so far on our land area, at least to my knowledge. 

Also have my doubts right now about the 12z NAM HRRR solutions.  Need to reevaluate at 230P.

I wasn't specifically just talking about LI but more region wide. The funny thing is Upton seemed to have been highlighting Sunday as the bigger heavy rain threat day versus today reading their discussion the last couple of days. I am surprised they never issued a flood watch for their forecast area but I guess they don't feel the flooding will be widespread enough today??

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Have seen all model guidance shift to the southeast on heavy rainfall band.  I'm reluctant to give up on it, due to instability, proximity of the front and PWAT over 2" through at least 3AM Friday BUT... I have to give up on the outside chance additional amounts for s LI that adding up to 1 ft near Copiague.

I did append a MAX rainfall graphic that indicates isolated 4-5" might occur in 1 or 2 locations (this graphic begins at 8PM tonight)... if we get a nice period of training between 6PM and 3AM.  If that were to occur where 4+ occurred this morning, then there would be additional overnight flood problems with a couple more reports of entire event totals over 7" on southern LI.  Again, uncertainty on overlap.

Elsewhere...bands developing now and so by 3A Friday... expecting  a couple of 3-5"  in NJ s of I80 and maybe the CT coast. 

That would possibly result in a couple new FFW's by midnight?

Offline til 5P. Thanks for all the posts and support for this topic. 

Screen_Shot_2020-09-10_at_2_04.55_PM.png

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31 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Have seen all model guidance shift to the southeast on heavy rainfall band.  I'm reluctant to give up on it, due to instability, proximity of the front and PWAT over 2" through at least 3AM Friday BUT... I have to give up on the outside chance additional amounts for s LI that adding up to 1 ft near Copiague.

I did append a MAX rainfall graphic that indicates isolated 4-5" might occur in 1 or 2 locations (this graphic begins at 8PM tonight)... if we get a nice period of training between 6PM and 3AM.  If that were to occur where 4+ occurred this morning, then there would be additional overnight flood problems with a couple more reports of entire event totals over 7" on southern LI.  Again, uncertainty on overlap.

Elsewhere...bands developing now and so by 3A Friday... expecting  a couple of 3-5"  in NJ s of I80 and maybe the CT coast. 

That would possibly result in a couple new FFW's by midnight?

Offline til 5P. Thanks for all the posts and support for this topic. 

Screen_Shot_2020-09-10_at_2_04.55_PM.png

I think models are underdone on the NW side. Dewpoints are in the mid 70's and the cold front is still back by the Canadian border.

ttd_sf.gif?1599764212123

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30 minutes ago, Intensewind002 said:

My total here from the heavy rain this morning was 2.59" of rain. Interesting that the 7+" amount only occured a mile away in Copiague, i guess the heaviest of the rain was extremely localized?

Yeah I think a few miles can make a big difference when it's raining that hard, I also have some doubts about some of these very high totals

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1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

Euro bone dry for nnj and nyc for the rest of the day 

none of the models are doing a good job right now

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1 hour ago, Intensewind002 said:

My total here from the heavy rain this morning was 2.59" of rain. Interesting that the 7+" amount only occured a mile away in Copiague, i guess the heaviest of the rain was extremely localized?

The 4 to 5.4 range was pretty common from SE Nassau to SW Suffolk.

NEW YORK

...NASSAU COUNTY...
   1 SSW MASSAPEQUA      5.41   855 AM  9/10  COCORAHS                
   MERRICK               4.38   820 AM  9/10  CWOP     

Wantagh mesonet..................................4.66

 

..SUFFOLK COUNTY...
   WEST GILGO BEACH      4.13   816 AM  9/10  CWOP                    
   ENE COPIAGUE          4.05   800 AM  9/10  COCORAHS                
   WSW AMITYVILLE        4.04   800 AM  9/10  COCORAHS    
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2 hours ago, lee59 said:

Yeah I think a few miles can make a big difference when it's raining that hard, I also have some doubts about some of these very high totals

While I didn't get the big totals being seen elsewhere around the region here's my obs from the local stations that I posted in another thread - "Nice little slug of rain here today but again, I seem to have missed the big numbers. Several stations within a mile are at .64 but 2 miles south it's 1.3 and 3 miles north it's 1-1.2 so there's a pocket where it was considerably less. It's pretty awesome how many stations are on WU in this area now, last year there were only 3 or 4 but now there's a dozen within 5 miles. Pretty cool."

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9 hours ago, Rjay said:

The flooding near Massapequa HS was pretty crazy. 

This photo looks like it was taken about a block away from the high school at the corner of Merrick and Arlyn.

 

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14 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said:

bust.

:]

Still hardly anything here. One heavy downpour missed just a few miles to the north, going over plainfield. Now it looks as if this next downpour is going to miss us just a few miles to the south. The luck we have getting heavy downpours here in Piscataway is so bad it's almost comical. I've lost count of how many times we missed getting heavy rain by just a couple miles this summer.

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

This photo looks like it was taken about a block away from the high school at the corner of Merrick and Arlyn.

 

And that was taken after the rain relaxed a bit and water levels dropped off.  It's right where I had to "turn around, don't drown" and found another way to work. 

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3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Tropical downpours make for the best sound 

I'm Jealous. Just light rain here. Yet again a heavy downpour slides just a few miles south of Piscataway. Don't know what it is that causes that to happen so often.

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1 minute ago, winterwx21 said:

I'm Jealous. Just light rain here. Yet again a heavy downpour slides just a few miles south of Piscataway. Don't know what it is that causes that to happen so often.

Sucks. Absolutely pouring here I would think a flood advisory will be needed 

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