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September 2020 wx discussion


forkyfork

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23 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

If it means keeping outdoor spaces open, case counts down, and my kids going to school...hell yes!

Agree 100%. The more fresh air we can keep in buildings the better. Schools right now need to exchange air at least 4 times an hour and that is much harder to do when you have to heat it from freezing. Also, even though indoor dining is open, I still won't do it right now. Had a few coronavirus scares personally both in the spring and this fall. I teach at the university level and have been trying to do some in-person teaching. I love winter and all that, but let's hope we can keep windows open as late as possible.

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Down to 43 last night and up to a chilly but sunny 60 now.  Cool next 3 days as well highlighted here. Warm up by Wed (9/23) and overall warmer near or above normal looks likely to take us to the end of the month.  We'll see how much of the stronger warmth can get into the east timing -wise that looks between Friday (9/25) and Mon (9/28).

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Updated last few days 

 

9/17

EWR: 77
LGA: 77
ACY: 77
TEB: 76
ISP: 76
PHL: 76
New Brnswck: 76
NYC: 75
BLM: 74
JFK: 74
TTN: 74

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

9/18

EWR: 73
JFK: 72
PHL: 72
LGA: 71
TEB: 71
BLM: 71
New brnswck: 71
ACY: 71
NYC: 70
TTN: 70
ISP: 69
 

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20 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Yep, this time of year, hitting 90 or above with that kind of upper level ridging wouldn’t take much

The last warm spell called for 90 a week out but it never materialized. The later it gets the harder to get to those type of temperatures. I will go with 80-85 and be happy with that.

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9 hours ago, bluewave said:

The low of 50° in NYC was the coldest September temperature since 2013. Early Sunday could be a degree or two cooler. 
 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Lowest Min Temperature 
Missing Count
2020 50 11
2019 52 0
2018 54 0
2017 54 0
2016 54 0
2015 56 0
2014 52 0
2013 47 0

Looks like JFK could get into the 40s also!  A first for Sept there since 2013 also?

 

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5 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Under mostly sunny skies, the temperature rose into the lower 60s at Robert Moses State Park this afternoon. A few Monarch butterflies were in flight, but the peak migration is still a little in the future, as much of the goldenrod has yet to bloom. Five photos from today:

Robert-Moses-State-Park-NY09192020-1.jpg

Robert-Moses-State-Park-NY09192020-4.jpg

Robert-Moses-State-Park-NY09192020-2.jpg

Robert-Moses-State-Park-NY09192020-3.jpg

Robert-Moses-State-Park-NY09192020-6.jpg

If I may Don, your Demonstrated and gentle caring for our planet means Gaia chose her custodians well. As always ...

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Looks like some  large surf and beach erosion the next few days. Possibly as bad as last week when Jones Beach had complete over wash. Meanwhile dropping to the mid 50s here. As spring is just a few days away in the southern Hemisphere, Amundsen-Scott weather station at the South Pole has a temperature of -70 degrees with a windchill of -103.

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Temperatures reached only the lower and middle 60s across the region today despite bright sunshine. Tomorrow morning, Central Park will likely have a minimum temperature below 50°. The last time the temperature fell into the 40s in New York City during September was September 24, 2013 when the temperature fell to 47°.

Select low temperature estimates include:

Albany: 35°
Allentown: 39°
Boston: 46°
Bridgeport: 47°
Harrisburg: 42°
Hartford: 38°
Islip: 48°
New York City: 48°
Newark: 47°
Philadelphia: 47°
Poughkeepsie: 37°
Providence: 44°
White Plains: 42°

Generally below normal readings could persist until near the middle of next week. Afterward, temperatures will moderate with temperatures returning to above normal levels for much of the remainder of the month.

Today, Denver hit 90°. That was the 74th time this year that the temperature reached or exceeded 90° at Denver. The prior record was 73 days, which was set in 2012.

The 30-year moving average of 90° days has also been increasing. Since 2000, Denver has added an average of 9.5 such days to its annual figure. Since 1950, the annual average has increased by just over 90% to an average of 44.6 days.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around September 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.75°C. La Niña conditions have developed and will likely prevail through the remainder of autumn.

The SOI was +10.28.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.003.

On September 18, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.290 (RMM). The September 17-adjusted amplitude was 1.587.

Since 1990, there have been 11 La Niña events, 6 of which followed an El Niño winter. 10/11 (91%) case saw warmer than normal September. All 6 following an El Niño winter were warmer than normal. September mean temperatures for New York City for those cases were: 11 cases: 69.9°; Subset of 6 cases: 70.8°; Entire 1990-2019 period: 69.0°. The September mean temperature for all La Niña and neutral-cool cases following an El Niño winter (1950-2019: n=13) was 69.9°.

Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO.   

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 54% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September. September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 68.2°.

 

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