Doorman Posted August 26, 2020 Share Posted August 26, 2020 5 minutes ago, notlikethis said: The outflow channel from Bavi across the ITCZ back to the Gulf is particularly impressive for this time of year! NLT.....thanks for the confirmation. isn't the Outflow Channel on Direct TV????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 26, 2020 Share Posted August 26, 2020 47 minutes ago, cheese007 said: Don't you know that the northeast is the only part of the U.S. that matters? Apparently it doesn’t matter if the center hits the TX/LA border because it’s “sparsely populated”. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 26, 2020 Share Posted August 26, 2020 Guess which model had an elongated blob with 20 different centers moving around like drunken flies? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted August 26, 2020 Share Posted August 26, 2020 Eye think she feyenally did it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 26, 2020 Share Posted August 26, 2020 23 hours ago, A-L-E-K said: avoiding a sw la snoozer would be nice bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tar Heel Snow Posted August 26, 2020 Share Posted August 26, 2020 9 hours ago, yoda said: At least one specific poster isn't here posting about Sandy At least Rutherford traded Jack Johnso—oh wait. Kappy being back is nice though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DownpourDave Posted August 26, 2020 Share Posted August 26, 2020 this aged well LMAO 6 hours ago, vortex95 said: The asymmetries in the CDO suggest still some dry air is getting ingested in the W quad. You can see small areas of bursting very cold IR cloud tops just W of the center and a partial erosion of the colder cold tops on the W side of the hurricane. The CDO as a whole is having trouble organizing into a smooth circular pattern with uniform cold cloud tops. Outflow is being persistently restricted in the W quad and doesn't seem to have linked up with the trough over ern TX to provide a large anticyclonic poleward outflow channel that is often key to RI (Harvey and Michael did have strong poleward outflow channels). So even though conditions have improved the last 12 hours, they are not ideal. The patch of dry air in the wrn GOMEX persists. The shear, which did relax during the day Tuesday, was initialized at 3 kt at 00z by the SHIPS output. 06z it has 13 kt and it stays close to this value until landfall. The window of opportunity for RI may be closing. http://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtime/plots/northatlantic/2020/al132020/stext/20082600AL1320_ships.txt 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted August 26, 2020 Share Posted August 26, 2020 I’m here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
09-10 analogy Posted August 26, 2020 Share Posted August 26, 2020 Audrey in 1957 does seem to be a pretty good match. Its landfall was right around where Laura's is forecast: Sabine River/Cameron LA area. According to Wiki, Audrey had a 12 foot storm surge that went 25 miles inland. Strong cat 3. (I think it was downgraded from a 4 during reanalysis years after it occurred.) Devastating loss of life with it. Cameron was destroyed by Audrey, and then by Rita and Ike in the 2000s. I don't think too many people live there anymore. As Moore OK is to tornadoes, Cameron seems to be to hurricanes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 26, 2020 Author Share Posted August 26, 2020 Anyone want to make a call on landfall pressure? I'm going with 934 mb. An additional 30 mb pressure drop by tonight does not seem unreasonable to me considering the current trends and the cyclone's structure and appearance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 26, 2020 Share Posted August 26, 2020 she - her.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted August 26, 2020 Share Posted August 26, 2020 Laura is a WOMAN 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 26, 2020 Share Posted August 26, 2020 9 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: she - her. . its amazing, a weather forum full of weather nerds wanna call storms he/she. storms arent people! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hc7 Posted August 26, 2020 Share Posted August 26, 2020 15 minutes ago, mappy said: It -- hurricanes are things not people, not he or she. And how exactly does saying "he" or "she" infer that its a human being again..? People have been referring to storms as "he" or "she" as long as theyve been named, not sure how or why anyone would get bent out of shape over something so trivial and irrelevant. 5 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted August 26, 2020 Share Posted August 26, 2020 Wouldn't be a hurricane season without cranky's incredibly bad hurricane takes. Remember, Michael was only a cat 1 at landfall 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 26, 2020 Share Posted August 26, 2020 6 minutes ago, Hc7 said: And how exactly does saying "he" or "she" infer that its a human being again..? People have been referring to storms as "he" or "she" as long as theyve been named, not sure how or why anyone would get bent out of shape over something so trivial and irrelevant. moved this to banter storms are not people, friend. they are storms. not mothers, fathers, daughters, sisters, brothers. not he, or she. just storms. things. this is a weather forum, where we talk science and its a good idea to refer to weather phenomenon correctly. sorry to upset you. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted August 26, 2020 Share Posted August 26, 2020 Wouldn't be a hurricane season without cranky's incredibly bad hurricane takes. Remember, Michael was only a cat 1 at landfallWait he said whatSent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted August 26, 2020 Share Posted August 26, 2020 Just now, Orangeburgwx said: Wait he said what Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 26, 2020 Share Posted August 26, 2020 11 minutes ago, mappy said: moved this to banter storms are not people, friend. they are storms. not mothers, fathers, daughters, sisters, brothers. not he, or she. just storms. things. this is a weather forum, where we talk science and its a good idea to refer to weather phenomenon correctly. sorry to upset you. Oh good lord. Now hurricanes are gender neutral. Hurricane Pat. There, feel better, Mappy? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted August 26, 2020 Share Posted August 26, 2020 I think we're starting to see a northward draw of the soft spot in cat 2 Hurricane Laura. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted August 26, 2020 Share Posted August 26, 2020 54 minutes ago, Hc7 said: the rate shes deepening at is concerning to say the least given the smaller size of her eye and the large size of the system itself. Is the shear shell encounter right before landfall even going to be able to have much actual impact on what shes capable of if shes a large, mid-high end cat 4 by that time? Wouldn’t be shocked if this guy has a really extensive collection of blowup dolls and skinsuits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 26, 2020 Share Posted August 26, 2020 6 minutes ago, Floydbuster said: Oh good lord. Now hurricanes are gender neutral. Hurricane Pat. There, feel better, Mappy? It's Pat is such an underrated movie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 26, 2020 Share Posted August 26, 2020 9 minutes ago, Floydbuster said: Oh good lord. Now hurricanes are gender neutral. Hurricane Pat. There, feel better, Mappy? LoL Its not a big deal calling them by a gender. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 26, 2020 Share Posted August 26, 2020 4 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said: On topic peeps hehe my bad... I've moved a post or two here so people can yell at me instead of dragging the thread further. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 26, 2020 Share Posted August 26, 2020 Just now, MJO812 said: LoL Its not a big deal calling them by a gender. I know. Everything was completely professional and fine until our moderator Liz Warren went all crazy on pronouns like a college girl. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 26, 2020 Share Posted August 26, 2020 1 minute ago, Floydbuster said: I know. Everything was completely professional and fine until our moderator Liz Warren went all crazy on pronouns like a college girl. oh come on, stop being so dramatic 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hc7 Posted August 26, 2020 Share Posted August 26, 2020 5 minutes ago, mappy said: moved this to banter storms are not people, friend. they are storms. not mothers, fathers, daughters, sisters, brothers. not he, or she. just storms. things. this is a weather forum, where we talk science and its a good idea to refer to weather phenomenon correctly. sorry to upset you. So..did you just have a very abrupt change of heart about people using pronouns to refer to storms in place of their official names or something..? Should I go through the thread and show you when regular long term users, even certified meteorologists referred to the storm as either "her" or "she" and for some reason those posts just went unnoticed and unbothered by the pronoun police? Do I need a certain amount of posts, or a meteorology degree in order to use the pronouns "her" or "she", because I havent seen any rule stating as much. I mean, clearly youre the one whose particularly upset if you thought it was actually necessary and egregious enough to say something, and even move a comment completely relevant to the thread. Im more baffled at something so incredibly trivial bothering you to such an extent, and your own lack of consistency on the matter. Weird...I see a "she" used there just a few pages back? I mean shit, at least attempt to have even a semblance of consistency if you want to act offended over absolutely nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 26, 2020 Share Posted August 26, 2020 Just now, Hc7 said: So..did you just have a very abrupt change of heart about people using pronouns to refer to storms in place of their official names or something..? Should I go through the thread and show you when regular long term users, even certified meteorologists referred to the storm as either "her" or "she" and for some reason those posts just went unnoticed and unbothered by the pronoun police? Do I need a certain amount of posts, or a meteorology degree in order to use the pronouns "her" or "she", because I havent seen any rule stating as much. I mean, clearly youre the one whose particularly upset if you thought it was actually necessary and egregious enough to say something, and even move a comment completely relevant to the thread. Im more baffled at something so incredibly trivial bothering you to such an extent, and your own lack of consistency on the matter. Weird...I see a "she" used there just a few pages back? I mean shit, at least attempt to have even a semblance of consistency if you want to act offended over absolutely nothing. No, no change of heart. was playing catch up since my last visit and saw your post. could have been anyone, really. please don't take offense to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted August 26, 2020 Share Posted August 26, 2020 Anyone got a link to ACE numbers for this storm and historical storms? My links are out of date and it's not an obvious google. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 26, 2020 Share Posted August 26, 2020 Just now, bobbutts said: Anyone got a link to ACE numbers for this storm and historical storms? My links are out of date and it's not an obvious google. wiki has a list https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accumulated_cyclone_energy#Atlantic_hurricane_seasons,_1851–2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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