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Hc7

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  1. Hc7
    Still snowing strong here in south/central Nassau, visibility is poor and winds are kicking still. If I had to guess id say theres gotta be at least 12-13 inches on the ground already with no signs of it letting up soon.
  2. Hc7
    Hard to tell the QPF right now with the wind, but theres probably a good 5-6 inches on the ground here already in south/central Nassau, didnt seem like there was too much accumulated until I went outside and checked...still very fluffy snow. Thought some of the more intense bands would be going over here by now but snow is falling at a moderate pace with a good amount of wind.
  3. Hc7
    Looks like Jersey/Nassau/Central LI going to get smacked pretty good
  4. Hc7
    Looks like those of us in central/towards the south shore of Nassau really lucked out big time, didnt get much rain last night despite the huge totals not too far away in the queens/brooklyn/hoboken area and seems like were also going to be perfectly situated to miss most of the worst parts of Henri outside of some decent precipitation and a little wind over the next 24+ hours. Despite all that im still not confident in terms of being spared outages, ya never know with this power grid and the incompetency that is PSEG.
  5. Hc7
    I dunno why you say that as if the eye is making landfall right now, its still roughly 100+ miles out to sea and still has somewhat of a NNW heading, theres still at least 4-5 more hours for it to continue drifting and the eye can still totally clip the eastern part of the Island. Either way its pretty much irrelevant whether the eye barely misses the island by a mile completely or whether it landfalls 10 miles into the east end, the outcome and impact for a majority of the island will be nearly the exact same. Henri is still going to cause widespread, significant problems for the area. How far west it drifted had much more of an impact on the CT/Mass/RI area than it did LI.
  6. Hc7
    may not look very good in terms of its presentation but you can really see the storm being sucked NNW here, central LI landfall might not be as crazy as some people thought earlier today. Regardless of intensity at landfall, its going to be bad news for us on LI.
  7. Hc7
    I dont see why that ULL wont continue dragging it NNW until landfall(to an extent), the trough cleared out and that ULL is strong enough(clearly, judging by how much/quickly it made it jog west), not to mention there looks to be a legitimate eye on IR now although any intensification thats going on will likely be short lived. The NNW movement may slow down as it approaches landfall but I think we can say at this point the question is not IF it will clip LI but how far west it will make LF on the island, im not feeling too hot about this NNW movement here in Nassau.
  8. Hc7
    fairly significant trend NW tbh, its definitely drifting. If this trend continues brooklyn/queens could get a whole ton more rain and theyve already received a ton tonight from these bands that drifted away from Henri. I assume it will stop drifting west at some point and just be traveling north but the question is how much will it drift west and when will that westward movement stop? Im still relatively worried over here in central/southern Nassau.
  9. Hc7
    Yes, but its not from Henri.
  10. Hc7
    Seems like the LL high to the SE of the storm is tugging it a bit more east atm, but at the same time Henri is finally starting to develop a more formidable eye wall and finally acting like a storm that is over 30 degree Celsius waters and still has some more time over them to strengthen. Latest drop recorded peak winds of a little under 100mph as well, so I imagine it will be a battle of how much it strengthens and how strong that LL high to the SE tugs it in terms of where exactly it tracks to. Wouldnt completely rule out a LI landfall yet, but at least the models who forecasted it going as far west as NYC can be thrown out at this point, think the absolute furthest west it can get at this point is maybe a western/central suffolk landfall although I think it may be more likely that it landfalls eastern LI before moving into CT/NE. I could be wrong though, still has some time to decide where its going and im personally still closely watching from central/south Nassau.
  11. Hc7
    Its not really surprising models are bouncing back east in their guidance tbh, many of them tend to have issues accurately forecasting storms that have had tilted or decoupled vortices, and at this point many of them had Henri looking more impressive that it actually does right now. Models can still easily shoot back west significantly over the next 24 hours. Whilst Henri doesnt look amazing right now, it does seem to be starting to get its shit together some and some hurricane force winds have been found, and it shouldnt have any issues with convection. Dont forget just how much very warm, fast moving water can help a storm get its shit together, its going to hit the Gulf Stream very soon and when it does expect it to organize quickly and strengthen fairly quickly. The good thing about it not being completely organized/stacked yet is that it will probably put a cap on how much it can strengthen when it hits that Gulf Stream, but I think it will still have plenty of time to become a very formidable, dangerous storm for a place like LI.
  12. Hc7
    Same...all these years I thought id be safe in south/central Nassau, Henri has other plans apparently. I cringe to think about what type of impact something like this would have on the area, Isias was a disaster in terms of outages and that was just winds for a few hours, id imagine damages could be as bad or even worse than Sandy if that model verifies. A few days ago I thought there was no chance we could get a direct hit but it feels like its only getting more likely as things progress. Im just preparing myself to accept that we probably wont have power for like a week.
  13. Hc7
    I have a feeling more and more models are going to start to agree with a westward shift as the storm starts to pick up intensity today/tomorrow, some of which have already picked up on such a trend due to forecasting Henri strengthening more. Should have a pretty good idea after the next 24 hours and getting flight data for the models to work with as it intensifies. All I know is im legitimately worried as a Nassau resident for the first time in a while, this storm has barely been talked about by the media here and theres been equally as little response by state officials, I think a lot of people are going to get caught off guard this weekend when theyre told they have maybe a little over a day to prepare for a hurricane. A lot of people here lost power/internet for 4-6 days or more from Isias alone and that was basically just a short duration wind event, the infrastructure and state officials are going to be tested big time here, and my faith in them is already near zero.
  14. Hc7
    I know the ECM has been pretty accurate with how its initialized Henri, but im really quite skeptical about how much it has Henri intensifying over the next 36+ hours. The mere fact Henri has stayed as organized as it has (albeit a severely tilted vortex...but hey it didnt uncouple it) despite what would be enough sheer to rip apart PLENTY of tropical storms is alone impressive and is the main driver in my skepticism of the model forecasting relatively modest intensification. I guess well for sure know more after observing how it intensifies over the next 24 hours now that sheer is dropping significantly tonight, but I really do feel like the models that initialized it too low, may end up being the ones who are more accurate about the track and degree of intensification that occurs. I think what will happen is the track and strength of Henri will be something in between the UK and ECM/GFS, something like a landfall in the middle/east Suffolk maybe around 985-990mb. I dont think thats at all unrealistic at this point, those of us on LI need to be prepared and paying attention over the next 24 hours.
  15. Hc7
    Well, don’t look now but you may just get what you wished for, Teddy is looking like he’s got as good of a shot as any so far to approaching that sort of level in the coming days.
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