Hc7

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  1. Kind of surprised the 11am advisory only forecasts it to peak at barely cat 4..it’s already a solid 3 and even the NHC admits it should essentially have free reign to continue intensifying for the next 36+ hours under fairly ideal conditions, with the only potential obstacle being 10-15kt shear after that (which honestly will probably have absolutely zero negative effect on Teddy by then given it will probably be even bigger and stronger). The only thing that’s going to POTENTIALLY stand in it’s way is running into upwelling issues from the wake of Paulette and even then, who knows just how much it’s effected and if it’s effected, at least until it gets further north and encounters cooler water that can’t sustain higher intensities. The biggest thing I’m wondering is given the fact Teddy is currently much stronger and is going to be much stronger than most models forecasted, how is that going to impact its track and which will be closest to verifying? It’s making me worry that it’s less likely to verify those seemingly most likely tracks taking it OTS or just by NS. And given how poor many of the Global’s have been this season with both track and intensity this far out, I’m seriously worrying a NE landfall(Or at least a pass close enough to do damage, given Teddy will likely have far reaching impact) might not be as improbable as we think. Can’t say there’s been many times I’ve had a legitimate worry of a strong hurricane impacting me here on LI, even if it’s still improbable At this point.
  2. Such strong connective bursts are firing off close to the small(essentially pinhole) eye that they’re actually partially obscuring the eye, but make no mistake that eye is in perfectly good condition atm. The presentation on visible is extremely impressive right now, as is the raw T numbers this beast is pushing already. Teddy isn’t messing around, seriously would not be surprised to see NHC go with 110-115kt for the 11am advisory and there be a special advisory around 1pm reading 125kt, this thing is currently/is preparing to really explode. Good thing they have multiple planes flying this afternoon, should make for some interesting data. It’s going to blow past the original and extremely conservative forecasted max intensity.
  3. Man some of the posts in here just from the last 12 hours are already aging like milk . Some people have been way too quick to write systems off this season. Teddy has had at least major written all over him since last night regardless of a minor sluggish tempo, a CDG wrapped nearly all around since last night is almost always indicative of a system that goes for major status. Plus it never really lost a fairly impressive IR presentation. Consistency is overrated, Teddy was clearly just taking a little break before making his big push today, recon goes in later this afternoon and I wouldn’t be surprised at all if they find a Major(actually decent shot they find a cat 4 by the time they fly in there). A strengthening one at that too. Nothing to stop Teddy once it fully closes off that eye and starts to really turn it up.
  4. Well, don’t look now but you may just get what you wished for, Teddy is looking like he’s got as good of a shot as any so far to approaching that sort of level in the coming days.
  5. Given Teddy is still fairly far out, my worries are a bit tempered but the Relatively good agreement between models as far as general track goes is worrisome given how rare that’s been this season. The intensity forecast is also quite worrying given the usual conservative nature of the NHC, combined with how good Teddy already looks, this system might have the highest ceiling thus far this season. The Maine/Boston solutions make me worry even as a NYer, since if it could possibly make a landfall that far NE then You can’t really rule out something closer to NY this far out and I know even a close pass of a strong storm would be a nightmare, even Isias was a shitshow for utilities and infrastructure here. Will be watching this one more closely than usual.
  6. Seems like another Gulf Hurricane that the HWRF has nearly nailed in terms of intensity and genesis. Maybe now some people will stop dismissing it(at least for this season) as an inaccurate model that always far overestimates systems intensity. Regardless, Sally has really quite literally “blown up” on satellite very quickly, it may be close to landfall but I don’t see why it won’t continue to strengthen until landfall, has a real shot at major status which would be bad news given how much rain the system dropped previously when it was only a TS.
  7. Yeah, very interested to see the type of intensification this goes under once the shear subsides. What could be the explanation as to just how it’s continued to organize and strengthen despite such strong shear? Seems like a fairly popular trend this season that storms have been able to weather and survive significant shear/Or land interaction(although not to the extent Paulette has been able to).
  8. Lightnings been non stop for the past 5+ minutes, nice little thunderstorm so far
  9. winds gusting harder now, rainfall getting more intense as well and lightning becoming a bit more prominent. Yet to see any hail or the 60mph+ gusts the NWS advised to look out for though.
  10. Winds picked up a good amount here(although intermittent) in central/south Nassau, some thunder and lightning and pretty solid rainfall coming down now.
  11. Some darker ominous clouds over mid-southern Nassau County, definitely a bit of a breeze moving in it seems and I assume some stronger gusts are coming. Air feels fairly humid and heavy.
  12. Any idea about what time to expect thunderstorms and high winds in Nassau County LI?
  13. Thats fine, ill be waiting for the Mets post and every other post using the same language to be moved to the banter thread as well. You know, for consistencies sake if youre going to be so nitpicky and remove comments completely relevant to a thread, that break zero rules.
  14. So..did you just have a very abrupt change of heart about people using pronouns to refer to storms in place of their official names or something..? Should I go through the thread and show you when regular long term users, even certified meteorologists referred to the storm as either "her" or "she" and for some reason those posts just went unnoticed and unbothered by the pronoun police? Do I need a certain amount of posts, or a meteorology degree in order to use the pronouns "her" or "she", because I havent seen any rule stating as much. I mean, clearly youre the one whose particularly upset if you thought it was actually necessary and egregious enough to say something, and even move a comment completely relevant to the thread. Im more baffled at something so incredibly trivial bothering you to such an extent, and your own lack of consistency on the matter. Weird...I see a "she" used there just a few pages back? I mean shit, at least attempt to have even a semblance of consistency if you want to act offended over absolutely nothing.
  15. And how exactly does saying "he" or "she" infer that its a human being again..? People have been referring to storms as "he" or "she" as long as theyve been named, not sure how or why anyone would get bent out of shape over something so trivial and irrelevant.