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Tropical connection NYC forum area Sun-Wed, 8/2-5/20- Tropical Storm Isaias

wdrag

By wdrag,
in New York City Metro

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PB-99

PB-99

Posted
Posted 
A few tornadoes will be possible from the Virginia Tidewater into
   New England Tuesday into Tuesday night, in association with Isaias.
   Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and
   damaging winds may also occur across portions of the northern and
   central Plains.

   ...Eastern North Carolina to New England...
   Latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center indicates that
   Isaias should be located over far northeastern NC and southeastern
   VA at the start of the period Tuesday morning. Isaias should
   accelerate northeastward along the Mid-Atlantic Coast and into New
   England through the period as it becomes absorbed within an
   upper-level trough over the eastern CONUS. A rather strong low-level
   flow field (60-70+ kt at 850 mb) will be present in the eastern half
   of Isaias' circulation, which will aid in substantial low-level
   hodograph curvature/enhancement.

   The best prospect for weak destabilization (MLCAPE 250-1000 J/kg)
   should exist along/near the Mid-Atlantic to southern New England
   Coast, where surface dewpoints should increase into the low to
   perhaps mid 70s through Tuesday evening. Given the very favorable
   low-level shear, primary concern will be a few tornadoes with any
   low-topped cells in outer rain bands along/east of the center of
   Isaias' circulation. Confidence has increased enough in the Isaias'
   track and potential for modest diurnal destabilization along/near
   the coast to include 5% tornado probabilities and a Slight Risk from
   the VA Tidewater region northeastward into southern New England.
   Eventually, the strong low-level shear should become displaced to
   the north of even weak inland destabilization across NH and ME by
   late Tuesday night. This should result in a gradual lessening of the
   isolated tornado threat with northward extent across New England.
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crossbowftw3

crossbowftw3

Posted
Posted

Wind Advisory 

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
314 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020

NYZ062-PAZ048-041915-
/O.NEW.KBGM.WI.Y.0010.200804T1600Z-200805T0300Z/
Sullivan-Pike-
Including the cities of Monticello and Milford
314 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 11 PM EDT TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Northeast winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph
  expected.

* WHERE...In Pennsylvania, Pike county. In New York, Sullivan
  county.

* WHEN...From noon to 11 PM EDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects.
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may
  result.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$
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LibertyBell

LibertyBell

Posted
Posted
On 7/31/2020 at 8:01 AM, Great Snow 1717 said:

The hurricanes in 1635, 1667,1693 and 1788 may have been major hurricanes. And a close miss in 1869. Others of interest are the 2 hurricanes in 1815 and the hurricane in 1849.

I was reading an old weather book a few years ago, so I may have the year wrong, but it stated that there was a hurricane in early October 1804 (Cat 2- but it stated F2 for some reason), that dropped snow in Boston and sleet in NYC with temps in the 30s.  The storm basically bisected LI and CT.

 

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LibertyBell

LibertyBell

Posted
Posted

Interesting track...... guys, look up Bertha 1996.  This one might have a track similar to that one.....65 mph TS when it made landfall near JFK.  The track is close enough to the ocean for it not to weaken rapidly, plus its speed up the coast will help it maintain its structure up here.

 

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LibertyBell

LibertyBell

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Satellite imagery shows the center is on eastern edge of the cone. Correct me if I'm wrong. 

Yep, especially the European has been too far west with this consistently ever since it said it was going to make LF in South Florida.  This will probably make landfall near Cape Fear like Bertha 1996 did and track up to western LI at a similar intensity.

 

 

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nycsnow

nycsnow

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Yep, especially the European has been too far west with this consistently ever since it said it was going to make LF in South Florida.  This will probably make landfall near Cape Fear like Bertha 1996 did and track up to western LI at a similar intensity.

 

 

Western LI isn’t a little East that’s Way East then any model I think maybe nyc or just west 

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Brian5671

Brian5671

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

watching local tv weather future cast the city gets one good band mid day and that is it the storm is over by 6-700 pm .. lucky to get a inch for the city.. if that future cast is accurate..

Fay was like that east of the city-one firehose band and that was it....

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NJwx85

NJwx85

Posted
Posted

You guys put way, way too much weight towards the NAM. It's a short term model designed for forecasting convection, not a complex tropical system that's transitioning and interacting with a trough. The rain isn't going to be confined to that one consolidated area. You're going to see multiple bands on the Eastern side. Just look at the current radar situation over the Mid-Atlantic. That MCS pushing into DC is non-existent on the NAM.

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Brian5671

Brian5671

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

You guys put way, way too much weight towards the NAM. It's a short term model designed for forecasting convection, not a complex tropical system that's transitioning and interacting with a trough. The rain isn't going to be confined to that one consolidated area. You're going to see multiple bands on the Eastern side. Just look at the current radar situation over the Mid-Atlantic. That MCS pushing into DC is non-existent on the NAM.

I see your point but every model has that same narrow band of heavy rain....

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