Tropical connection NYC forum area Sun-Wed, 8/2-5/20- Tropical Storm Isaias

[allgame830]

9 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Moving awfully fast to dump that much rain IMO

That simply ain't true.... tropical systems can drop 4-6" in 2/3 hours easily.

[Stormlover74]

Does anyone know if the Ukie is showing these winds all up and down the coast or just in our area?

[Brian5671]

4 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

That simply ain't true.... tropical systems can drop 4-6" in 2/3 hours easily.

That is certainly true.   We'll see tomorrow right?

[Brian5671]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro?

Dry city and east-wet N and W

[Superstorm]

Euro?

.

[tdp146]

59 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

12z HWRF has a period of 50-60kts for Sandy Hook, NY Harbor and 40-45kts for Southern Queens, Brooklyn and SI. Elsewhere sustained winds look to be in the 20-30kt range which I personally think is a bit underdone compared to model consensus. 

[Brian5671]

Euro winds are rough city on east-overdone but wow

[PB-99]

8 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Euro winds are rough city on east-overdone but wow

 

UKMET winds are stronger.

[Brian5671]

6 minutes ago, PB-99 said:

 

UKMET winds are stronger.

Even cutting by 25-50% is still impressive.

[NJwx85]

Yikes 

[wdrag]

All in NYC forum. I have no answer on how bad, but definitely more serious than first considered when we started the thread days ago.

My preparation suggestion is everyone in our NYC forum have enough cash on hand to weather no power for a while, a full gas tank, and be aware you may not be able to move around in some areas where gusts tear down trees/wires. I could see power out for a week in hard to reach rural areas, if 70 knot gusts materialize. LI/New England and high terrain eastern NYS/nw NJ as well as coastal NJ hit the hardest.  Rainfall... 2-8" most of our area by 9PM Tuesday, maybe a little higher in tonight-Tuesday overlap.  

Will check 5P NHC and try too follow up this eve and Tue am. 

229P/3

[PB-99]

13 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Even cutting by 25-50% is still impressive.

 

You cut the euro by 25% and it`s damaging. 

The UKMET winds are  off the charts, reduce this by 30% and it`s damaging. 

 

I was chided 3 days ago at thinking 100 mph gusts were possible on LI, now I am really looking for someone to record an 80 mph gust somewhere on the coast. 

 

And that`s close enough. 

 

 

[jm1220]

Long Beach could be a good spot for the worst of the winds on the south shore. Thankfully the surge doesn’t look too big a deal but that would be an area I’d look for any 70-75mph gusts. I don’t think it’s quite enough for a hurricane watch/warning but could be close. 

[Rtd208]

With reference to rainfall particularly the Euro, rainfall amounts in and just west of the city look to be on the order of 1-2" with lesser amounts to the east and heavier amounts further inland. With that said, small shifts in the track will make a big difference rainfall wise.

[NJwx85]

These extra-tropical or transitioning storms have proven to be quite the big ticket items around here.

 

[psv88]

Just now, jm1220 said:

Long Beach could be a good spot for the worst of the winds on the south shore. Thankfully the surge doesn’t look too big a deal but that would be an area I’d look for any 70-75mph gusts. I don’t think it’s quite enough for a hurricane watch/warning but could be close. 

Getting a bit concerned out this way now, not liking those high wind forecasts at all. 

[uofmiami]

Just now, psv88 said:

Getting a bit concerned out this way now, not liking those high wind forecasts at all. 

You got a generator?  If not, I'd be worried about prolonged power outage.  Good test for PSEG infrastructure projects they've been doing for years since Sandy.

[psv88]

1 minute ago, uofmiami said:

You got a generator?  If not, I'd be worried about prolonged power outage.  Good test for PSEG infrastructure projects they've been doing for years since Sandy.

No generator. 

[Big Jims Videos]

From my eyes the storm looks about as good in satellite as it has in awhile yet.  Those wind projections are eye opening for sure.  especially considering last July when we had that thunderstorm Squall line move through the Jersey Shore with 75 mile an hour winds I think we had hundreds of thousands without power for at least a couple of days.  

[eduggs]

Those UK wind gust charts do not look reliable.  Winds will be much stronger over open water than over land (outside isolated spin ups or atop exposed ridges).  Those charts appear to be low resolution and well overdone.  

[NJwx85]

Just now, Big Jims Videos said:

From my eyes the storm looks about as good in satellite as it has in awhile yet.  Those wind projections are eye opening for sure.  especially considering last July when we had that thunderstorm Squall line move through the Jersey Shore with 75 mile an hour winds I think we had hundreds of thousands without power for at least a couple of days.  

I was in Atlantic County after the 2010 derecho which we foolishly rode out in an RV. Was the scariest night of my life weather related. Complete war zone the next day.

[NJwx85]

1 minute ago, eduggs said:

Those UK wind gust charts do not look reliable.  Winds will be much stronger over open water than over land (outside isolated spin ups or atop exposed ridges).  Those charts appear to be low resolution and well overdone.  

Normally you have an inversion over land but that’s not the case here. Also the track is unusual.

[MJO812]

Isn't it a full moon also on Tuesday?

[Prue11]

More and more concerned about major power outages on LI if we  see the higher wind gusts

[Big Jims Videos]

1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

I was in Atlantic County after the 2010 derecho which we foolishly rode out in an RV. Was the scariest night of my life weather related. Complete war zone the next day.

A random 60 miles per hour wind gust is manageable. When you start getting in the 70s you have issues. I hope hope hope this is overdone but we will see.  

[eduggs]

Just now, NJwx85 said:

Normally you have an inversion over land but that’s not the case here. Also the track is unusual.

So you can get some strong gusts down to the surface.  But still nothing like over open water where there is virtually no friction with the sea surface.

[PB-99]

 A potential 80 mph gust, a spin up and 5 inches of rain in spots makes for a wide spread severe day. 

[eduggs]

50mph winds are damaging.  And there could be wind damage tomorrow.  But most of these forecast wind charts are way overdone, as they almost always are.  6-8" of rain in 3 hours would cause some serious flooding problems in parts of NJ.  I think that could be the bigger concern tomorrow.  But the relatively short duration could spare the area.  Gotta watch frontal interaction out ahead of the main storm.

[Snowlover11]

Winds on the uk and euro while they might be overdone a bit, its still concerning especially over LI. Even the city has a shot over gusts over 60.

[Snowlover11]

my main concern is the rainfall in a short amount of time.  someone will see 6+ inches in a short time frame. models have been throwing out even 7-8” totals.