forkyfork Posted August 29, 2020 Share Posted August 29, 2020 5 hours ago, bluewave said: This month was probably one of the warmest Eastern Trough patterns that we have had. +2 is the new normal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted August 29, 2020 Share Posted August 29, 2020 The last 3 days of August are averaging 75.5degs., or 2.5degs. AN. Month to date is +1.9[77.3]. August should end at +1.9[77.1]. To play it safe with this GFS, end at +1.6[76.8]. 72*(96%RH)here at 6am, street wet, broken overcast. 73*(95%RH) at 7am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 29, 2020 Share Posted August 29, 2020 Morning thoughts... At 8:55 am, a batch of showers and thundershowers had moved into southwestern Connecticut. The area of rain was pushing northeastward. Additional showers and thundershowers are likely as the remnants of Laura approach the area. Laura will likely exit off the Delmarva Peninsula tonight. The New York City area and adjacent suburbs could pick up 0.25"-0.75" rain. A few locations on Long Island could see some locally higher amounts as Laura begins to tap into Atlantic moisture. August will end with cooler than normal temperatures, but the mercury will rebound early next week. A flash flood watch will go into effect in Phoenix this afternoon and run through tomorrow. The extreme heat that has dominated much of July and August there will relax. A warmup is likely next week there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 29, 2020 Share Posted August 29, 2020 18 hours ago, Will - Rutgers said: don't know what glass you're using but if you find yourself in the market for a nice macro lens, check out the 100mm Tokina--stupid sharp, great mechanics, built like a tank, and cheap. my absolute favorite lens. Thank you for the tip. I appreciate it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 29, 2020 Share Posted August 29, 2020 78/72 and light rain. 0.16 in the bucket last 12 hours. The majority of the rain showers and storms should slowly move out over the next few hours. Some breaks in the clouds already to C and E - PA. Some gorgeous weather Sunday (8/30) and Mon (8/31) Drier and cooler with highs near 80s some 50s inland perhaps. The Western Atlantic Ridge expands west and builds into the classic Bermida high position as Warmth returns starting on Tues (9/1) and while guidance isnt as war,m as it was previous runs it still looks like 90s potential in the Wed (9/2) to Fri (9/4) before another brief 2 day cool down Labor Day weekend. Beyond there EC ridging looks to establish towards 9/8 with trough pushing into the mid section. Could see some heavy rain totals west of the region as ridging builds along the coast. Tropical threat FL / EC 9/8 - 9/13. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 29, 2020 Share Posted August 29, 2020 Afternoon thoughts... As of 2 pm, rainfall totals were as follows: Atlantic City: 0.23” Islip: 0.23” New York City: 0.01” Newark: None Philadelphia: 0.10” White Plains: 0.10” An area of showers and thundershowers was moving mainly eastward across southeastern Pennsylvania with a few widely scattered showers elsewhere in Pennsylvania. Overall prospects for rainfall in the New York City area have decreased. In general, New York City, Newark, and nearby suburbs will see 0.25” rain or less. Exceptions would be areas where thundershowers develop. Parts of Long Island could still pick up 0.50” or more. Western parts of the region could see the clouds begin to break early this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted August 29, 2020 Share Posted August 29, 2020 Turning out to be a quite warm afternoon. Partly sunny 84/73. Also got my internet and cable back after t storm couple days ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted August 29, 2020 Share Posted August 29, 2020 81° today with lots of clouds...0.01" rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 29, 2020 Share Posted August 29, 2020 Clouds broke for sunshine this afternoon, the temperature rose above 80°, and a brisk breeze blew across the waters of the Long Island Sound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 30, 2020 Share Posted August 30, 2020 Tomorrow will feature abundant sunshine with temperatures in the middle and upper 70s to perhaps around 80° in the region. August will likely end on a cool note before temperatures again return to above normal levels during the first week of September. The current predominantly warmer than normal pattern will likely persist through much of September, providing a warm start to fall throughout the region. Occasional short-lived cool shots remain possible. However, uncertainty about the possibility of more sustained cool shots has increased in recent days. Phoenix has an implied near 100% probability of having its warmest summer on record. Phoenix will likely finish with a summer mean temperature near 96.8°. The existing record is 95.1°, which was set in summer 2013 and tied in summer 2015. July 2020 was Phoenix's warmest month on record with a mean temperature of 98.9°. August 2020 could approach or exceed that figure. There is currently an implied 68% probability that August will exceed July's monthly record. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around August 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.17°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.55°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely evolve into La Niña conditions during the fall. The SOI was +18.63. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.838. On August 28, daily MJO data was unavailable. Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, a warmer than normal pattern locked in and predominated through early autumn. This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period. Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. The cases that saw both the MJO and SOI thresholds satisfied generally saw 10-20 days where the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City during the July 1-August 31 period. New York City has had 18 days on which the temperature reached 90° or above during July-August 2020. Since 1990, there have been 11 La Niña events, 6 of which followed an El Niño winter. 10/11 (91%) case saw warmer than normal September. All 6 following an El Niño winter were warmer than normal. September mean temperatures for New York City for those cases were: 11 cases: 69.9°; Subset of 6 cases: 70.8°; Entire 1990-2019 period: 69.0°. The September mean temperature for all La Niña and neutral-cool cases following an El Niño winter (1950-2019: n=13) was 69.9°. Overall, the evolution of ENSO, along with the observed ongoing monthly warming (1.6°/decade in NYC and 1.5°/decade in the Northeast Region during September 1990-2019), favors a warmer than normal September. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August. August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.8°. Summer 2020 will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.9°, which would tie 2020 as Central Park's 4th warmest summer with 1949, 1983, and 1993. At LaGuardia Airport, summer 2020 will likely finish with a mean temperature of 79.5°. That would surpass the existing summer record of 79.2°, which was set in 2010. Finally, on August 28, Arctic sea ice extent was 4.119 million square kilometers (JAXA). There is an implied 95% probability that Arctic sea ice extent will reach a minimum figure below 4.000 million square kilometers for the second consecutive year and third time on record. The highest 25% bound is 3.843 million square kilometers. The lowest 25% bound is 3.624 million square kilometers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 30, 2020 Share Posted August 30, 2020 8/29 LGA: 84 EWR: 84 New Brnswck: 83 TEB: 83 ACY: 81 PHL: 81 TTN: 81 NYC: 81 ISP: 79 JFK: 79 BLM: 78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted August 30, 2020 Share Posted August 30, 2020 81/70 temp split today...so did add another 70+ min temp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted August 30, 2020 Share Posted August 30, 2020 The last 2 days of August are averaging 74degs., or 1 degree AN. Month to date is +2.0[77.2]. August should end near +1.8[77.0]. 68*(69%RH) here at 6am, m. clear. 70*(61%RH) by 9am. 74*(50%RH) by Noon. A clear area on satellite is approaching for say the 2pm-4pm. 80*(38%RH) by 5pm. Was on beach. A little too windy and some minor dust devils here. Otherwise OK. Rides all still closed, but with the Aquarium opened partially but by appointment only, it looked a little like a real Coney Island Sunday judging by a fully loaded Aquarium parking lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 30, 2020 Share Posted August 30, 2020 Morning thoughts... Today will feature abundant sunshine with temperatures in the middle and upper 70s to perhaps around 80° in the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 78; Newark: 80; and, Philadelphia: 80. August will likely end on a cool note with readings several degrees cooler than those of today. Temperatures will likely return to above normal levels near or just after mid-week. Afterward, a deep trough in Canada will move toward the Great Lakes Region and provide a period of cooler weather. That trough may persist until near mid-September. LaGuardia Airport remains on course to record its warmest summer on record. Arctic sea ice extent will likely fall below 4 million square kilometers over the next day or two for the second consecutive year and third time on record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 30, 2020 Share Posted August 30, 2020 Numerous stations from Northern Maine to Southeast PA are currently in 1st place for the warmest summer. This includes LGA, BDR, and ISP in our area. It’s impressive how many high ranking summers there have been across this region since 2016. Time Series Summary for Caribou Area, ME (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 67.1 2 2 2018 66.2 0 Time Series Summary for Burlington Area, VT (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 72.4 2 2 1949 72.2 0 3 2018 72.1 0 Time Series Summary for Manchester Area, NH (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 74.6 2 2 2018 73.6 2 3 2016 73.0 0 Time Series Summary for HARTFORD-BRADLEY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, CT Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 74.7 2 2 1973 74.4 0 3 2005 73.9 0 4 2016 73.8 0 Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 79.6 2 2 2010 79.1 0 3 2016 78.8 0 Time Series Summary for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 75.6 6 2 2016 75.4 0 3 2010 75.0 0 4 2018 74.3 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 74.7 2 - 2010 74.7 0 3 1999 74.5 0 4 2016 74.4 0 5 2011 73.9 0 6 2019 73.8 0 7 2018 73.5 0 Time Series Summary for Williamsport Area, PA (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 74.6 2 2 2016 74.4 0 3 1949 74.3 0 - 1901 74.3 0 Time Series Summary for Middletown-Harrisburg Area, PA (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 78.1 2 2 1966 77.6 0 3 2016 77.3 0 4 2010 76.8 0 5 1999 76.7 0 6 2019 76.5 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted August 30, 2020 Share Posted August 30, 2020 a beautiful fall morning in the city comfortable temps nice gusty wind i am glad real summer is over... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 30, 2020 Share Posted August 30, 2020 74 /52 northwest breeze and sensational outside. Two days of this drier / pleasant weather before warmer air returns Tue (9/1) with rain as we transition to SW flow. Wed - Fri much warmer with shot at 90s especially in the warmer spots more likely Thu/ Fri. Fri transition with strong cold front timing key on highs. Labor Day Weekend - another 48 hour cool down Sat (9/5) and Sun (9/6) half of next (Labor) weekend before warmth builds back in Labor day (Mon 9/7) as the Western Atlantic Ridge expands west. Strong trough into the GL / MW with strong ridging along the coast. Cooler air will likely continue to come on short intervals through mid month with the coolest readings west of the area. Way beyond the GL and MW trough looks to move out as western ridging is displaced east by strong trough into the PNW. Western Atlantic Ridge looks nearby the EC expanding west into the NE / then SE. Tropics active 9/7 - 9/13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted August 30, 2020 Share Posted August 30, 2020 Not nearly as sunny as it was supposed to be today. It's mostly cloudy here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 30, 2020 Share Posted August 30, 2020 2 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: Not nearly as sunny as it was supposed to be today. It's mostly cloudy here. Its delightful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted August 30, 2020 Share Posted August 30, 2020 11 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Its delightful It feels great, but the sky conditions are not beautiful like they were supposed to be. A lot of clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted August 30, 2020 Share Posted August 30, 2020 5 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: It feels great, but the sky conditions are not beautiful like they were supposed to be. A lot of clouds. But I see on satellite that more sun should start to break through in the next couple hours. It's just that my father is very fussy about this sort of thing. He's going for a motorcycle ride today and I got a call from him and he was pretty irritated, asking what happened to the sunny day today. LOL. We were not supposed to have hours of mostly cloudy skies like we've had. Still a nice day though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 30, 2020 Share Posted August 30, 2020 Under partly sunny skies, the temperature rose into the upper 70s to near 80° this afternoon. Three photos from the New York Botanical Garden from this afternoon: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted August 30, 2020 Share Posted August 30, 2020 Mostly sunny here today, made it up to 83. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 31, 2020 Share Posted August 31, 2020 Today was a picture perfect late August Day. Bright sunshine, deep blue skies, puffy cumulus clouds, low humidity and an active breeze made for an exceptional day as temperatures topped out in the upper 70s and lower 80s across the region. Tomorrow will see more in the way of clouds than today, but it should still be partly sunny. August will end on a cool note as the temperature remains below 80° in a large part of the region. Beyond midweek, temperatures will likely return to above normal levels. Afterward, a deep trough in Canada will move toward the Great Lakes Region and provide a period of cooler weather. That trough may persist until near mid-September. Nevertheless, the first half of September will likely wind up somewhat warmer than normal and September, as a whole, will likely finish at least somewhat warmer than normal. Phoenix has an implied near 100% probability of having its warmest summer on record. Phoenix will likely finish with a summer mean temperature near 96.8°. The existing record is 95.1°, which was set in summer 2013 and tied in summer 2015. July 2020 was Phoenix's warmest month on record with a mean temperature of 98.9°. August 2020 will likely exceed that figure. There is currently an implied 87% probability that August will exceed July's monthly record. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around August 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.17°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.55°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely evolve into La Niña conditions during the fall. The SOI was +22.70. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.410. On August 29, daily MJO data was unavailable. Since 1990, there have been 11 La Niña events, 6 of which followed an El Niño winter. 10/11 (91%) case saw warmer than normal September. All 6 following an El Niño winter were warmer than normal. September mean temperatures for New York City for those cases were: 11 cases: 69.9°; Subset of 6 cases: 70.8°; Entire 1990-2019 period: 69.0°. The September mean temperature for all La Niña and neutral-cool cases following an El Niño winter (1950-2019: n=13) was 69.9°. Overall, the evolution of ENSO, along with the observed ongoing monthly warming (1.6°/decade in NYC and 1.5°/decade in the Northeast Region during September 1990-2019), favors a warmer than normal September. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August. August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.9°. Summer 2020 will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.9°, which would tie 2020 as Central Park's 4th warmest summer with 1949, 1983, and 1993. At LaGuardia Airport, summer 2020 will likely finish with a mean temperature of 79.5°. That would surpass the existing summer record of 79.2°, which was set in 2010. Finally, on August 28, Arctic sea ice extent was 4.059 million square kilometers (JAXA). There is an implied 98% probability that Arctic sea ice extent will reach a minimum figure below 4.000 million square kilometers for the second consecutive year and third time on record. The highest 25% bound is 3.806 million square kilometers. The lowest 25% bound is 3.604 million square kilometers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 31, 2020 Share Posted August 31, 2020 How exactly does this summer rank higher than 2010 and 1993 at LGA and other prominent sites? Those summers were demonstrably hotter and hotter for the ENTIRE summer. This summer it was all concentrated into one month..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 31, 2020 Share Posted August 31, 2020 8 hours ago, winterwx21 said: It feels great, but the sky conditions are not beautiful like they were supposed to be. A lot of clouds. why has it been cloudy almost every day for like two weeks? I miss the clear skies we used to have so frequently a few weeks ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 31, 2020 Share Posted August 31, 2020 Just now, LibertyBell said: How exactly does this summer rank higher than 2010 and 1993 at LGA and other prominent sites? Those summers were demonstrably hotter and hotter for the ENTIRE summer. This summer it was all concentrated into one month..... warmer minimums with no let up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 31, 2020 Share Posted August 31, 2020 28 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Today was a picture perfect late August Day. Bright sunshine, deep blue skies, puffy cumulus clouds, low humidity and an active breeze made for an exceptional day as temperatures topped out in the upper 70s and lower 80s across the region. Tomorrow will see more in the way of clouds than today, but it should still be partly sunny. August will end on a cool note as the temperature remains below 80° in a large part of the region. Beyond midweek, temperatures will likely return to above normal levels. Afterward, a deep trough in Canada will move toward the Great Lakes Region and provide a period of cooler weather. That trough may persist until near mid-September. Nevertheless, the first half of September will likely wind up somewhat warmer than normal and September, as a whole, will likely finish at least somewhat warmer than normal. Phoenix has an implied near 100% probability of having its warmest summer on record. Phoenix will likely finish with a summer mean temperature near 96.8°. The existing record is 95.1°, which was set in summer 2013 and tied in summer 2015. July 2020 was Phoenix's warmest month on record with a mean temperature of 98.9°. August 2020 will likely exceed that figure. There is currently an implied 87% probability that August will exceed July's monthly record. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around August 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.17°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.55°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely evolve into La Niña conditions during the fall. The SOI was +22.70. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.410. On August 29, daily MJO data was unavailable. Since 1990, there have been 11 La Niña events, 6 of which followed an El Niño winter. 10/11 (91%) case saw warmer than normal September. All 6 following an El Niño winter were warmer than normal. September mean temperatures for New York City for those cases were: 11 cases: 69.9°; Subset of 6 cases: 70.8°; Entire 1990-2019 period: 69.0°. The September mean temperature for all La Niña and neutral-cool cases following an El Niño winter (1950-2019: n=13) was 69.9°. Overall, the evolution of ENSO, along with the observed ongoing monthly warming (1.6°/decade in NYC and 1.5°/decade in the Northeast Region during September 1990-2019), favors a warmer than normal September. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August. August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.9°. Summer 2020 will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.9°, which would tie 2020 as Central Park's 4th warmest summer with 1949, 1983, and 1993. At LaGuardia Airport, summer 2020 will likely finish with a mean temperature of 79.5°. That would surpass the existing summer record of 79.2°, which was set in 2010. Finally, on August 28, Arctic sea ice extent was 4.059 million square kilometers (JAXA). There is an implied 98% probability that Arctic sea ice extent will reach a minimum figure below 4.000 million square kilometers for the second consecutive year and third time on record. The highest 25% bound is 3.806 million square kilometers. The lowest 25% bound is 3.604 million square kilometers. Don this summer hasn't been anywhere near as consistently hot as either 1993 or 2010. This year we basically had one hot month. We need a different way of calculating heat (let's use number of 90 degree days), it doesn't even feel anywhere near as hot as 1993 and 2010 did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 31, 2020 Share Posted August 31, 2020 Just now, uncle W said: warmer minimums with no let up... Yeah, I would change the way we calculate heat to number of 90 degree days, it doesn't feel anywhere near as hot as either 1993 or 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 31, 2020 Share Posted August 31, 2020 1 minute ago, LibertyBell said: Don this summer hasn't been anywhere near as consistently hot as either 1993 or 2010. This year we basically had one hot month. We need a different way of calculating heat (let's use number of 90 degree days), it doesn't even feel anywhere near as hot as 1993 and 2010 did. The averages were boosted more by near record and record periods of abnormally high minimum temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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