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Saturday, June 27 - Sunday, June 28, 2020 Convective Thread


weatherwiz
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Just now, dryslot said:

I just hurt my arm tossing this.

 

Someone near you and Lava is going to get smoked.  Every model is showing inches of rainfall over the next couple days in that area.  They all can't be wrong.

I could see it being more convective so it's not as widespread but maybe someone sees even higher amounts than modeled in localized spots?  You get some of these things training for like 12 hours and you'll rack up a lot of water.

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1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Someone near you and Lava is going to get smoked.  Every model is showing inches of rainfall over the next couple days in that area.  They all can't be wrong.

I could see it being more convective so it's not as widespread but maybe someone sees even higher amounts than modeled in localized spots?  You get some of these things training for like 12 hours and you'll rack up a lot of water.

Yes, Its true, Not everyone will cash as we have seen so far today but i think someone could see some hefty totals if these train or are slow movers.

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6 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Yes, Its true, Not everyone will cash as we have seen so far today but i think someone could see some hefty totals if these train or are slow movers.

It's a very interesting synoptic evolution for this time of year.  It does seem like it taps some deep, moisture rich air from the southern Atlantic region. 

This is a moist flow from down south right up into Maine... then pivots back west and south.  This is pretty high RH for the 400-700mb layer for the areas that tap that deeper moisture.

Humid air mass with dews in the 60s to even 70s southern tier.  It can rain.  The models are trying to show us something, ha.

gfs_midRH_eus_fh12-30.thumb.gif.3da200a6e258d7dd1b4e3d84e49810d3.gif

 

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Someone should change the name of this thread, put all the summer ULL stuff in here.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 348 PM EDT Sunday...On Tuesday, a broad and weakening
area of surface low pressure will be situated across
southeastern New England, with upper-level lows vertically
stacked on top of it preventing any appreciable forward motion.
Meanwhile, a fetch of tropical moisture will be drawn northward
into the circulation as indicated by modeled relative humidity
at 700 mb. So expect plenty of showers with occasional downpours
to spiral into Vermont from the east according to the cloud-
level winds, while surface winds blow from the north or
northeast. 

Also, very sweet swath of heavy rain on the BOX radar.  If yellow is 1"+ that's a decent soaking for many areas.

July_28_Final.gif.4bdd52e1fc9a37a5069c005cf91ed72d.gif

 

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2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

It's a very interesting synoptic evolution for this time of year.  It does seem like it taps some deep, moisture rich air from the southern Atlantic region. 

This is a moist flow from down south right up into Maine... then pivots back west and south.  This is pretty high RH for the 400-700mb layer for the areas that tap that deeper moisture.

Humid air mass with dews in the 60s to even 70s southern tier.  It can rain.  The models are trying to show us something, ha.

gfs_midRH_eus_fh12-30.thumb.gif.3da200a6e258d7dd1b4e3d84e49810d3.gif

 

Can we get this in Jan at sub 32F?

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4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Sunny morning here. Don’t know how much of this can pinwheel back down this week. Will have to rely on convection in the afternoons. 

How much rain did you get yesterday? We had storms everywhere, but here. Ended up with a whopping 0.04" 

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