Bostonseminole

SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2020

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Google is not giving me an Orange, LA just an Orange, TX on the state line.  I presume this means the land south of Orange, TX on the LA side just east of Port Arthur?  I'm seeing a Johnson Bayou and Mae's Beach in this area.

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2 minutes ago, Warwick WX said:

Google is not giving me an Orange, LA just an Orange, TX on the state line.  I presume this means the land south of Orange, TX on the LA side just east of Port Arthur?  I'm seeing a Johnson Bayou and Mae's Beach in this area.

East Orange is in Louisiana 

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1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Based on I.K.E. Laura will be comparable to Hurricane Ike with surge values. Impressive 

Is the modeled fetch that impressive !?

where is that modeled 

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25 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Is the modeled fetch that impressive !?

where is that modeled 

Based on NHC wind, radii in all 4 quarters

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57 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Nam splits Galveston and Port Arthur sub 930.

18 Z Euro is east and a worst case scenario for Lake Charles 120 sustained 

Screenshot_20200825-204949_Chrome.jpg

download (39).png

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4 hours ago, Dr. Dews said:

It will be a long two weeks tracking our '38

gfs_z500_vort_atl_60.png

Jesus, look at that beast in Iowa! Can I sign up for something like that emerging off the Mid-Atlantic coast in January?

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6z Euro further East. Now a cat 3. NHC Expecting 4 right before LF. Buoy near Laura. Wind is at standard height 

download (41).png

plot_wind_pres (1).png

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3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

6z Euro further East. Now a cat 3. NHC Expecting 4 right before LF. Buoy near Laura. Wind is at standard height 

download (41).png

plot_wind_pres (1).png

Euro initialized  to weak and is about 6 hours behind with intensity.. rapid intensification  going on right now I definitely  think a cat 5 landfall is a possibility.. 

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I have not been altogether impressed by the Euro's handling of tropical systems of the years.  

That's from the genesis phases of them, to the handling of them after the fact ...until they begin to experience the influence of the westerlies ...then the model's a kind of "johnny-come-lately" and does remarkably well. 

I think the tropical regions/monsoon trough zones are like a "limit" in the equations - and I wonder what the mathematics over the 4-d variable system is doing at that x-coordinate boundary ...where it's like a geo-physical asymptote .. fading to oblivion more so than a discrete edge.  I guess a metaphor is like 'slipping outside the Euro's radar-range.'  Anyway, I wonder if their system falters there a little...because its in that amorphous ill-defined boundary that zygote TW/TCs tend to formulate and begin moving W where the 10 N and 10 S ( depending on hemisphere) gets influenced by the underbelly of the HC and the easterly trade winds zones...  The Euro is routinely lagged behind other guidance in genesis in these regions, and then... seems to be challenged in intensify systems ..playing catch-up with the other guidance.  I'm usual raising a brow at this point if I see the model even carry an inverted 'dent' west around 15N across the Atlantic ...usually at the other end of the scale, it is not uncommon to find the GGEM is negotiating a categorical hurricane if/when the Euro does... 

Anyway, since Laura is technically still moving with westerly component ... which means it is not yet influenced by the westerlies... I wonder if the Euro's hiccup runs deviating from the consensus is part and parcel of all this...

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