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Hoosier

June 2020 General Discussion

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6 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Not amplified in the right places though if you like spring for storms.

Less amplified is better for storms.  This blocking nonsense is boring as hell.  You'd think it would be over it by now since most of the latter half of May was a stupid SE-CONUS block.  Nope.  It's back already, and will only be broken down by yet another troughing pattern.  I thought this summer was supposed to be warm.  Wrong.

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15 minutes ago, frostfern said:

Less amplified is better for storms.  This blocking nonsense is boring as hell.  You'd think it would be over it by now since most of the latter half of May was a stupid SE-CONUS block.  Nope.  It's back already, and will only be broken down by yet another troughing pattern.  I thought this summer was supposed to be warm.  Wrong.

I'll be fairly surprised if summer doesn't end up warmer than average in the means for most of the sub.

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We are gradually descending toward La Nina.  Nino to Nina transitions have generally had warmer than average summers, especially in the past 30-40 years.  I wouldn't guarantee it but I'd definitely lean that way.

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The cold/trough talk is pure lol. Still running at a +4 departure for the month despite the recent cooldown.

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1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

We are gradually descending toward La Nina.  Nino to Nina transitions have generally had warmer than average summers, especially in the past 30-40 years.  I wouldn't guarantee it but I'd definitely lean that way.

Seems like even most of the warm summers lately have been weird "warm with a SE trough"... i.e. slow block-y pattern with hardly any good storms outside the upper plains.  Need some kind of broad westerly component in the 800-500 mb level to get the elevated mixed layer moving east into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.  These meandering patterns with frequent cutoffs are always boring, whether they are warmer or cooler than average.

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10 minutes ago, Maxim said:

The cold/trough talk is pure lol. Still running at a +4 departure for the month despite the recent cooldown.

In modern times a cutoff trough doesn't necessarily mean colder than average, but it usually means boring with no good ring-of-fire pattern ever setting up.  Just seems like a lot of the good t-storm season has been wasted with blocky patterns this year.  Last year was decent in May, July, and then again September, but I remember 2018 being boring for almost the entire summer... until late August.  2018 was warm but had a lot of cutoffs/blocks and was quite boring.

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On 6/13/2020 at 3:06 PM, patrick05 said:

Have you guys seen that message about the NWS Proposed Changes to the alerts that they use? Basically, getting rid of the "Advisory" messages, among others.

I only saw it on the NWS-LOT Page along with the link to the NWS Survey. I've filled it out but I wonder how many are for or against it.

Here's the link to the NWS Page (the link to the actual survey is on there).

https://www.weather.gov/lot/AdvisoryChange

Quoting an old reply here, but I also filled out the survey and in general favor a "blend" of the two options.

Continue to use the advisory as that is an easily identifiable indicator to the public that the weather event warrants at least some attention. However, begin using plain language in the advisory text. If those who view the advisory have a jargon free summary of what weather to expect, I feel the advisory will be better fulfilling its purpose and the elimination will be unnecessary. 

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14 hours ago, Kitchener poster said:

Unirrigated lawns are toast. Recent transplants are already seeing leaf drop. 

No above average chances of rain until next Tuesday. 

Sniffed this persistent dry down awhile ago. 

It's weird seeing the current massive early torch go way up into Quebec where there was still 2+ feet of snow on the ground just two months ago.  There's gonna be a boreal forest fire outbreak at some point if the warmth and drying continues.

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On 6/16/2020 at 2:25 PM, Hoosier said:

We are gradually descending toward La Nina.  Nino to Nina transitions have generally had warmer than average summers, especially in the past 30-40 years.  I wouldn't guarantee it but I'd definitely lean that way.

Can't say I disagree. Hopefully just slightly warmer than avg though.  La Ninas certainly make me lick my chops for potential into the Winter, as above average precipitation is likely.

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I don't know the last time I had this much blue sky for this long, maybe not since 2012 but with no cells for today this streak may continue into early next week. After this Spring, having 8 days of non-stop shine near the start of summer is wild. Its like I'm back in southern AZ.

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8 hours ago, Hoosier said:

D0 making an appearance in much of Indiana

20200616_midwest_trd.thumb.jpg.bae9f979a3509f1bdeec21503058b1c2.jpg

I was planning on posting about this when I got home tonight, but you beat me to it. I look at the Army Corp of Engineers Louisville District lake reports daily. These are the lakes formed by the dams that protect the Ohio River basin in Indiana, Ohio, and Kentucky. Normally, somewhere in the basin at this time of year, some of the flood control reservoirs are above summer pool due to spring rains. Right now all 20 lakes are at or below summer pool. This is an indication of abnormally dry conditions. It is unusual to have them all that that level this early in the summer. The last time I remember it occurring this early was 2012.

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8 hours ago, IWXwx said:

I was planning on posting about this when I got home tonight, but you beat me to it. I look at the Army Corp of Engineers Louisville District lake reports daily. These are the lakes formed by the dams that protect the Ohio River basin in Indiana, Ohio, and Kentucky. Normally, somewhere in the basin at this time of year, some of the flood control reservoirs are above summer pool due to spring rains. Right now all 20 lakes are at or below summer pool. This is an indication of abnormally dry conditions. It is unusual to have them all that that level this early in the summer. The last time I remember it occurring this early was 2012.

The corn here is starting to curl the leaves. Making them look spikey.  That is a sure sign of a shortage of moisture.

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