frd Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 44 minutes ago, bluewave said: Today looks like the last 90 degree potential for the more interior warm spots in a while. Cooler cutoff pattern with easterly flow develops and persists into next week. So far it looks like the big high keeps the heaviest cutoff rains to our south. But these exact cutoff low tracks and heaviest rain placement can easily change over time. Also wondering the effects of soil moisture and feedback for later in the season. Those areas with the highest QFP at times can be the breeding grounds for very hot weather for our areas, however, maybe this summer the heat makes it approach and greatest impact from going up and over and arriving on NW flow events. Any thoughts ? Of course you also have to look at the long lasting warm SSTs in the Western Atlantic, that seem to want to extend summer into mid October, such as in recent years. On a related Atlantic SST note, wondering when the flip happens closer to the coast as the Atlantic is warming in general. The surf zone is warming but has been slow to respond, maybe the long East fetch brings the warmer waters closer the next 8 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 78/69 here as the tropical airmass ensues. Winds NE here. Should warm up to the mid 80s but 90s may be tough north of Philly today. Overnight runs continue with a wacky cutoff / ULL period from Sunday 6/14 - 6/20. Pending on where the ULL centers will determine the heaviest rains. 06 GFS pushes the ULL offshore by Wed (go figure) while Euro suite has it similar to the May brigade near KY, AR, TN. Either way unsettled period. beyond there plenty of heat building in the plans and GL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 10, 2020 Author Share Posted June 10, 2020 4 hours ago, bluewave said: Today looks like the last 90 degree potential for the more interior warm spots in a while. Cooler cutoff pattern with easterly flow develops and persists into next week. So far it looks like the big high keeps the heaviest cutoff rains to our south. But these exact cutoff low tracks and heaviest rain placement can easily change over time. 2 hours ago, SACRUS said: 78/69 here as the tropical airmass ensues. Winds NE here. Should warm up to the mid 80s but 90s may be tough north of Philly today. Overnight runs continue with a wacky cutoff / ULL period from Sunday 6/14 - 6/20. Pending on where the ULL centers will determine the heaviest rains. 06 GFS pushes the ULL offshore by Wed (go figure) while Euro suite has it similar to the May brigade near KY, AR, TN. Either way unsettled period. beyond there plenty of heat building in the plans and GL. I doubt we see the heaviest rains with the ULL/cutoff as theme seems to be to push that more to the south/southwest of us but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SI Mailman Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 76 with a nice easterly breeze. A pleasant bust as long as the winds don't shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 10, 2020 Author Share Posted June 10, 2020 Current temp 79/DP 68/RH 68% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 78 imby by the pool... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 Already 90 degrees south of the warm front with the first 75 degree dew points of the season. First 100+ HX of the year to our SW. TRENTON MOSUNNY 86 75 69 S9 29.95F HX 95 TOMS RIVER* PTSUNNY 90 70 51 S10 29.98F HX 95 GEORGETOWN MOSUNNY 93 75 55 S13G22 29.97F HX 104 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 Temps remaining nearly steady today so far with the east to NE wind. 77, dew 64 73 at LGA, while 81 at Central Park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 Heat advisory just issued for central NJ. HI near 100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 83 here, off a high of 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 Warm front through SMQ with 101 HX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 5 hours ago, SACRUS said: 78/69 here as the tropical airmass ensues. Winds NE here. Should warm up to the mid 80s but 90s may be tough north of Philly today. Overnight runs continue with a wacky cutoff / ULL period from Sunday 6/14 - 6/20. Pending on where the ULL centers will determine the heaviest rains. 06 GFS pushes the ULL offshore by Wed (go figure) while Euro suite has it similar to the May brigade near KY, AR, TN. Either way unsettled period. beyond there plenty of heat building in the plans and GL. the canadian kicks out the ULL too and the euro just shifted well east with it so maybe we can salvage the second half of next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Salvatore B Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 1 hour ago, forkyfork said: the canadian kicks out the ULL too and the euro just shifted well east with it so maybe we can salvage the second half of next week this would be great if this scenario plays out. We certainly don't need to go through another cutoff low pattern like we did the week before Memorial day weekend which ultimately wound up ruining the start of the Memorial Day weekend after it was originally forecasted to impact the area that Monday-Thursday with improving weather just in time for Memorial day weekend. Yes rain is great to have but when it comes to cut off low patterns and it persists for prolonged periods of time you wind up going from needing the rain to not needing anymore in a quick period of time plus with this being June and not April all day dreariness is not fun to have in any of the 3 summer months or at all but especially in the 3 summer months when it typically should not be happening. Summer months do feature unsettled weather but typically not of the all day dreary stratiform type but rather the warm convective type where the sun destabilizes the atmosphere and you get your heavy rain and thunderstorms before the sun comes right back out. That's what type of unsettled weather should be happening during June, July and August. And in the summer months the weekends are the most important time for the weather to cooperate because that's when typically beach goers go to the beach which is what they call the 16 summer weekends which begin during Memorial Day weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 another day central park does not hit 90 degrees. what is the latest date when central park hit 90 does anyone know? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 central park stopped mattering in 1996 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 16 minutes ago, nycwinter said: another day central park does not hit 90 degrees. what is the latest date when central park hit 90 does anyone know? from NWS site...July 26 1877 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 82° here...Hotter air just off to the sw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 Wind turn south now and jumped up to 82, dew 72. Matching the high set at midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 The euro is very wet from Sunday into Tuesday next week. We have seen the euro be to far north with the cutoffs lately. Either way, looks like the best heat will be in NNE next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 the warm front passed through springfield. temp went from 86 to 88 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 Run after run the GFS keeps showing a massive heatwave here starting around the 18th. Is this a product of the new model core bias? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 49 minutes ago, Allsnow said: The euro is very wet from Sunday into Tuesday next week. We have seen the euro be to far north with the cutoffs lately. Either way, looks like the best heat will be in NNE next week. Looks like the EPS keeps much of the rainfall with the cutoff to our south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 10, 2020 Author Share Posted June 10, 2020 54 minutes ago, Allsnow said: The euro is very wet from Sunday into Tuesday next week. We have seen the euro be to far north with the cutoffs lately. Either way, looks like the best heat will be in NNE next week. 6 minutes ago, bluewave said: Looks like the EPS keeps much of the rainfall with the cutoff to our south. And the 18z GFS keeps the heavy rains to our west over C/E PA early next week with much lighter amounts over our area if anything. Like you said @bluewave where the heaviest rains fall will be hard to pin down but usually it favors areas to the west and south of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 10, 2020 Author Share Posted June 10, 2020 High for the day made it up to 89 here. Current temp 87/DP 72/RH 61% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 9 minutes ago, bluewave said: Whatever happens with the cutoff rainfall, looks like a Southern Plains drought feedback WAA surge to the NE around the solstice. So that could be our warmest temperatures of the month and season so far. but probably still not 90 here lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 Just now, bluewave said: It could be the first 90 of the season for JFK and ISP if the winds go more westerly. Portions of the Western Plains have been really drying out recently. So an airmass that originates there could really overperform on the heat moving NE around the solstice. hmmm if so that might mean a late hot summer for us, sort of like 1995? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted June 11, 2020 Share Posted June 11, 2020 88/67 split today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 11, 2020 Share Posted June 11, 2020 6/10 New Brnswck: 91 PHL: 91 TTN: 90 ACY: 87 BLM: 86 EWR: 86 TEB: 86 NYC: 85 LGA: 85 ISP: 79 JFK: 79 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted June 11, 2020 Share Posted June 11, 2020 Under abundant sunshine, the temperature again rose into the 80s across the region. Somewhat cooler conditions with some showers and thundershowers are likely tomorrow. No excessive heat is likely through at least the first half of June in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. However, the probability of a long-range pattern change toward sustained warmer than normal conditions beginning in the third or fourth week of June has increased in recent days. Afterward, the warm pattern change could lock in for July, paving the way for a warmer than normal summer. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around June 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.17°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely prevail through mid-summer. The probability of the development of a La Niña event during late summer or early autumn has increased in recent weeks. The SOI was -3.45 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.349. On June 9, the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.515 (RMM). The June 8-adjusted amplitude was 1.614. April and May 2020 featured unseasonably cool readings in the region. But now the proverbial clock may be starting to run out on the cool pattern. Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, the pattern was locking in with sustained above normal temperatures. This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period. Since 1981, there were four such cases that saw the MJO meet or exceed those thresholds during the June 1-10 period: 2002, 2006, 2007, and 2015. While the four cases were evenly split between cooler and warmer than normal during the second half of June, 3 of those 4 cases saw a warmer to much warmer than normal July. This could be an early indication that a summer that will start with near normal temperatures overall (June) could turn warmer than normal afterward. Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. Taking into consideration the MJO, that transition could begin some time during the closing 10 days of June. Just as had been the case last year, July and August could feature warm anomalies in the East. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 66% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June. June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.0°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted June 11, 2020 Share Posted June 11, 2020 A pretty good +3° temp departure first 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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