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Bob's Burgers

April 23rd Severe Event

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23 minutes ago, jpeters3 said:

Yeah, the 12z run seems to indicate enough recovery for supercells behind the MCS.  Though CAMs seem to always under-estimate the southward component of MCS  motion.

That does seem to be a theme. Also another theme is the RAP overestimating the northward push of the warm front/warm sector. 

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Looking like consensus is still sticking with a faster(rather than slower) evolution with this system keeping the ceiling much lower than it would be if it were to slow down significantly. Definitely still time for that, but seeing the 12z suite, I think the NAM is almost certainly the outlier on the slow end, GFS an outlier on the fast end. 

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4 hours ago, nwohweather said:

What is this Oklahoma? Dryline barreling through the SE just miles away from the ocean with solid lapse rates is absolute trouble.  Also the lift in place will create more of a string of pearls type setup instead of a bunch of spinning QLCS.  

Other than warm front placement I don't know what there isn't to like about tornado chances on Thursday, and violent ones at that.  With such good thermodynamic properties and lift, SRH on the order of 300+ will be more than sufficient to produce some monsters

I grew up in Birmingham, and having a dryline to move from west to east across North Central Alabama is not unheard of at all.  I recall three severe weather episodes that occurred in the late 1990s and early 2000s where supercells essentially formed in a linear fashion along those dryline and caused several spin up tornadoes along their paths.  As a matter of fact, the one in the late 1990s was one of the two tornadoes I've experienced in my life was a result of these type of events.

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36 minutes ago, hlcater said:

Looking like consensus is still sticking with a faster(rather than slower) evolution with this system keeping the ceiling much lower than it would be if it were to slow down significantly. Definitely still time for that, but seeing the 12z suite, I think the NAM is almost certainly the outlier on the slow end, GFS an outlier on the fast end. 

12z Euro continues to slow a bit. 

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Looking like consensus is still sticking with a faster(rather than slower) evolution with this system keeping the ceiling much lower than it would be if it were to slow down significantly. Definitely still time for that, but seeing the 12z suite, I think the NAM is almost certainly the outlier on the slow end, GFS an outlier on the fast end. 
Inside 72 hours I would trust the NAM over the GFS...

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1 minute ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Inside 72 hours I would trust the NAM over the GFS...

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In a raw 1v1, I'm inclined to agree, but the NAM goes against consensus here which is notable to me. It is very possible guidance trends in that direction(euro had a tick slower), but I don't see this reaching the levels the NAM thinks it will.

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22 minutes ago, hlcater said:

In a raw 1v1, I'm inclined to agree, but the NAM goes against consensus here which is notable to me. It is very possible guidance trends in that direction(euro had a tick slower), but I don't see this reaching the levels the NAM thinks it will.

Is it me or is the 12z Euro almost a copy of the past few NAM runs at 500mb. 

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Is it me or is the 12z Euro almost a copy of the past few NAM runs at 500mb. 
I see that too, it is a pretty close match. So now we got the NAM and The King on board, all others have to play catch up

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6 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

I see that too, it is a pretty close match. So now we got the NAM and The King on board, all others have to play catch up

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Really the only model that isn't on board is the GFS, UKMet has been mirroring the NAM for the past couple days. 

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NAM3K doesn't have discrete cells often, but it does Thursday. Most models are showing the slowing trend, Thursday looks to be another severe weather outbreak across Dixie. Pending 00z guidance a day 2 moderate risk is certainly possible. 

nam3k.png

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3 minutes ago, StormySquares said:

NAM3K doesn't have discrete cells often, but it does Thursday. Most models are showing the slowing trend, Thursday looks to be another severe weather outbreak across Dixie. Pending 00z guidance a day 2 moderate risk is certainly possible. 

nam3k.png

Yeah, it definitely has a tendency to hasten upscale growth far too quickly. They might hold off on a moderate till day one though given the uncertainty in timing and to see how the morning MCS evolves. 

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I'm not very optimistic given this first round of CAM solutions.  Most show a fairly large MCS overspreading the region early in the day, and a large removal of surface-based instability.  Even in the 3 km NAM, the cells that erupt within the region where recovery occurs don't encounter very favorable low-level wind profiles, which is presumably due to the disruption of the LLJ by the proceeding MCS.  Given the propensity for CAMs to under-estimated southward MCS extent, I think the MCS scenario would end up being a near total bust in terms of tornadoes.

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41 minutes ago, jpeters3 said:

I'm not very optimistic given this first round of CAM solutions.  Most show a fairly large MCS overspreading the region early in the day, and a large removal of surface-based instability.  Even in the 3 km NAM, the cells that erupt within the region where recovery occurs don't encounter very favorable low-level wind profiles, which is presumably due to the disruption of the LLJ by the proceeding MCS.  Given the propensity for CAMs to under-estimated southward MCS extent, I think the MCS scenario would end up being a near total bust in terms of tornadoes.

Yeah... looking pretty meh.

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Pretty black and white to me here.

The Bad (more likely)

Morning MCS limits any potential threat substantially, owing to meh instability... But so could veered low-levels, or both. Probably both.

Likewise, if the morning MCS is limited in scope or southern extent... Then things could get pretty crazy, but again, probably not. Though a strong tornado could occur with some rogue storm, like we saw on Sunday (4/19).

The Good (wish-casting/not as likely)

The low-levels are not as veered as currently modeled (aka, the 00z NAM from last night or the 12z UKMET)... AND the MCS is more lackluster than currently modeled by 12z CAMs... The result is likely tornado galore across several states, yet again...

 

Pretty bearish about Thursday... But even if the MCS diminishes the threat spatially -- as it looks like all of us expect at this point -- it is important to remember that weird, less-than-ideal profiles (especially compared to what you think of as a "classic," plains tornado VWP) can still produce isolated sigtors in Dixie.

Probably going to get quoted a million times for raining on the train... but oh well.

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24 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

Pretty black and white to me here.

The Bad (more likely)

Morning MCS limits any potential threat substantially, owing to meh instability... But so could veered low-levels, or both. Probably both.

Likewise, if the morning MCS is limited in scope or southern extent... Then things could get pretty crazy, but again, probably not. Though a strong tornado could occur with some rogue storm, like we saw on Sunday (4/19).

The Good (wish-casting/not as likely)

The low-levels are not as veered as currently modeled (aka, the 00z NAM from last night or the 12z UKMET)... AND the MCS is more lackluster than currently modeled by 12z CAMs... The result is likely tornado galore across several states, yet again...

 

Pretty bearish about Thursday... But even if the MCS diminishes the threat spatially -- as it looks like all of us expect at this point -- it is important to remember that weird, less-than-ideal profiles (especially compared to what you think of as a "classic," plains tornado VWP) can still produce isolated sigtors in Dixie.

Probably going to get quoted a million times for raining on the train... but oh well.

Doesn’t seem like anyone has been bullish on this set-up after the past few model runs. Too many failure modes evident to get very excited about this. 

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5 minutes ago, DanLarsen34 said:

Doesn’t seem like anyone has been bullish on this set-up after the past few model runs. Too many failure modes evident to get very excited about this. 

Yeah, i think we are pretty much all in agreement here.

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Watch this turn into a massive outbreak just to spite our well founded hesitance.... 

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3 hours ago, Bob's Burgers said:

Hopefully it busts. These people have been through enough lately

  I agree.  We've had a couple close calls up here that didn't pan out thankfully.  A lot of folks from the Easter system have no place to shelter in now.  Although numbers may not show in the grand scheme, seems like  common sense if you get whacked by one of these systems people and responders chance of exposure to CV locally is going to go up exponentially.  Hoping for a pattern change.  We're only a couple weeks away from cane season to start kicking in in earnest and for the last 3 or 4 weeks it seem's like there's been some kind of stalled front/weakness draped across an already steamy Gulf.  An early season home brew, be it a cane or a torrential flooder, could just play havoc, putting a larger population and corresponding responders at risk.  Closing shelters for tornadoes recently what are we going to do if/when a tropical system comes barreling through? As much of a weather nerd I am,  I hope mother nature cuts us some slack for the next couple of months.

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New day 2 is ENH... disco does mention and discuss the model uncertainty... but does have a 10% hatched tor

swody2_categorical.png.6c95ee0f7f3e78e43f4a61681547fdbf.png

swody2_tornadoprob.png.07e7ea1d3f213c50ee7a753b14eb1301.png

 

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We're in HHH this month and have been through 2 significant severe weather events. Hoping an MCS forms and slows that warm front, keeping the instability down tomorrow PM. I guess it's better than the inch of snow we got at our house from a rare April lake effect event!

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We're in HHH this month and have been through 2 significant severe weather events. Hoping an MCS forms and slows that warm front, keeping the instability down tomorrow PM. I guess it's better than the inch of snow we got at our house from a rare April lake effect event!
Several models busted the MCS into a QLCS.. that does not bode well for the hope for a weakened threat

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8 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Several models busted the MCS into a QLCS.. that does not bode well for the hope for a weakened threat

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Great, another QLCS...at least this one is during daylight hours so you can at least see it coming. Did the models speed up the timing or slow - caving to the NAM?

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Great, another QLCS...at least this one is during daylight hours so you can at least see it coming. Did the models speed up the timing or slow - caving to the NAM?
Cave to NAM from what I saw last night

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1 hour ago, MUWX said:

Large 10% hatch 

Yeah I'd be a little surprised if we didn't end up with a 15% area at some point given how large the 10% is right now.

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Yeah I'd be a little surprised if we didn't end up with a 15% area at some point given how large the 10% is right now.
Split the difference on the area, that will put the 15% over Eastern GA and the SC midlands

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