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Bob's Burgers

April 23rd Severe Event

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I like the raised probs for the Carolinas (Day 2 pm). Bama is so conditional and borderline veering off, but GA/SC parts of NC have the backed LLJ. 

That said I don't see 15% in the cards. CAMs have trended to MCS and/or linear. That does not mean let down one's guard. 10% hatched can include some beasts.

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MD on that SE TX supercell getting ready to move into LA...

Mesoscale Discussion 445
< Previous MD
MD 445 graphic
   Mesoscale Discussion 0445
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0553 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2020

   Areas affected...Parts of southeast Texas

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 135...

   Valid 222253Z - 222330Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 135 continues.

   SUMMARY...SUMMARY
   Based on recent radar and environmental data, a strong to intense
   tornado with potential peak winds of 130 to 165 mph (EF2-EF3) is
   likely ongoing.

   DISCUSSION...DISCUSSION
   Recent radar signatures from KGRK as of 2250Z reveal an intense
   supercell characterized by a 0.5 degree rotational velocity of at
   least 70 kt. A tornadic debris signature has also been noted on
   recent radar scans. These signatures are occurring in an environment
   characterized by STP between 5 and 6. Previous signatures within
   similar environments produced tornado-damage-estimated wind speeds
   from 130 to 165 mph and confidence is high for a strong to intense
   tornado. A longer-track tornado is ongoing and may continue based on
   the rotational velocity duration and the storm moving within a
   favorable downstream environment.

   ..Squitieri/Grams.. 04/22/2020

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Ongoing TDS  on the TX cell (might be cows with it's location).  This one and the one along the Red River could be long trackers as they both move east :whistle:

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Seeing what happened today in TX, OK and LA makes me think we’re going to be in for a doozy today.

Warm sector stayed fairly clear, and the flow into this deepening low should help aid any atmospheric recovery tomorrow. In addition the morning convection will more than likely put down boundaries for the afternoon.

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10 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

Seeing what happened today in TX, OK and LA makes me think we’re going to be in for a doozy today.

Warm sector stayed fairly clear, and the flow into this deepening low should help aid any atmospheric recovery tomorrow. In addition the morning convection will more than likely put down boundaries for the afternoon.

The chances of the warm sector over the SE staying clear, are pretty slim. Most models have a MCS/QLCS wiping the warm sector out. 

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57 minutes ago, MUWX said:

The chances of the warm sector over the SE staying clear, are pretty slim. Most models have a MCS/QLCS wiping the warm sector out. 

I know it's not exactly the SE but 25 filtered TOR reports late afternoon/evening Wed moving into Thurs.  Take the model runs if you want, they didn't pick up on this many tornadic events on the 22nd.  Still a pretty volatile environment overnight as the system moves east.  There's still some pretty established updrafts in the warm sector across central/southern LA. Plenty of ingredients to work with. 

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Quote
Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
436 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2020

MSC023-231000-
/O.CON.KJAN.TO.W.0049.000000T0000Z-200423T1000Z/
Clarke MS-
436 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2020

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 AM CDT FOR SOUTHERN
CLARKE COUNTY...
At 436 AM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located near Goodwater, or 15
miles northwest of Waynesboro, moving east at 60 mph.

HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

SOURCE...Emergency management confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is
         likely.

This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
southern Clarke County, including the following locations... Shubuta.

 

rs_kdgx_wdtv1_1587634536.png

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Kinda odd here in central NC. Went from nothing to 10% hatched and back to nothing in less than a day. I certainly don't mind, hope it's a quieter day for everyone in the south.

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There's a lot of cloud cover on satellite - should hamper destabilization of the atmosphere. Kinda hoping it does, personally.

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got to watch how far the warm sector can move NE form MS into western AL this morning

 

cells developing over western MS at this time may be on the edge of the unstable air as morning heating starts in MS

NAM 

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We had a Tornado Warning at 2:30 this morning in West Baton Rouge Parish. Pulled the radar up and my eyes popped out of my head. The hook echo passed directly over us. The clouds were insane.

The amount of people who were oblivious to it is sickening! I just did some preaching on FB. EVERYONE needs a NOAA Weather Radio and everyone needs to stop silencing their phones at night... It could make the difference between life and death next time.

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Just now, rnj79 said:

We had a Tornado Warning at 2:30 this morning in West Baton Rouge Parish. pulled the radar up and my eyes popped out of my head. The hook echo passed directly over us. the clouds were insane.

The amount of people who were oblivious to it is sickening! I just did some preaching on FB. EVERYONE needs a NOAA Weather Radio and everyone needs to stop silencing their phones at night... It could make the difference between life and death next time.

Yeah, since we've been vacationing in HHH, we've enabled our alerts on the phones, even in Do Not Disturb mode.

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I don’t know if I agree with the SPC and many on here. Probably will have egg on my face but Atlanta is already in the clear and it’s 11 AM.


Looking at the mesoscale analysis there is a ton of CAPE starting to filter into MS/AL. Idk I just see this current MCS laying down an OFB for later on today

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44 minutes ago, rnj79 said:

The amount of people who were oblivious to it is sickening! I just did some preaching on FB. EVERYONE needs a NOAA Weather Radio and everyone needs to stop silencing their phones at night... It could make the difference between life and death next time

If the darned thing didn't go off at 0300 to tell me about the watch (not the warning, the watch that I knew was eventually coming by early the previous morning), or the coastal flood warning that doesn't affect me, etc.  I'd be much happier. 

 

I still leave it on but I've been sorely tempted to go office space on it after the latest alerts for watches.  Would be nice if it were more selective...

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3 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

I don’t know if I agree with the SPC and many on here. Probably will have egg on my face but Atlanta is already in the clear and it’s 11 AM.


Looking at the mesoscale analysis there is a ton of CAPE starting to filter into MS/AL. Idk I just see this current MCS laying down an OFB for later on today

Wouldn’t the OFB be somewhere in the gulf?

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