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Color me surprised! We had about a 5 second burst of flurries here in Jersey City,NJ! You can actually see curtains of snow high in the clouds if you got a good vantage point. Awesomeness. 

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5 hours ago, MJO812 said:

I'm so jealous of the lake regions and SNE. More snow for them coming up.

Just can’t be a winter without an I-90 special. Crazy that it’s mid April but Boston looks to finally get a significant snow event. 

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Legit car topper here. For an otherwise crappy few weeks, this is cool to see. 

Current temp 34. Progged low of 27. Good thing I haven't planted yet. 

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2 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said:

Legit car topper here. For an otherwise crappy few weeks, this is cool to see. 

Current temp 34. Progged low of 27. Good thing I haven't planted yet. 

I could tell someone got a good snow shower west of me. Obviously it wasn't going to be crazy here in metro nj, but you can tell that it was ripping nicely about 500 or so feet up. Couldn't believe the flurries made its way to the ground at 45 degrees..even if it was for a few seconds, lol

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Perhaps the last snow threat of the 2019-2020 season now looms for parts of the Great Lakes region eastward into southern and central New England.

Late tomorrow into the coming weekend, a storm will come out of the Plains States bringing a cold rain to the coastal region of the Middle Atlantic States, including Philadelphia, Newark, and New York City. An area stretching from northeastern Pennsylvania across central New York State and into central New England could pick up at least some snow.

Snowfall estimates include:

Albany: 3"-6"
Binghamton: 3"-6"
Boston: 2" or less
Scranton: 2"-4"

The last time Boston had measurable snow in April was April 2, 2018 when 0.7" fell.

No measurable snow is likely in Islip, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and adjacent areas. There a chilly rain will fall. Some sleet pellets could be mixed in.

Through at least April 24, readings could average generally below normal to near normal with a few warmer than normal days across the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. Support on the extended guidance for a return of warmer than normal conditions for the closing days of April has increased. Some of the guidance shows the potential for much above normal temperatures to develop.  

Past cases that saw the NAO average -0.750 or below during April 1-5 with warmth in the East, as occurred this month, saw the development of a trough in the East after April 10. That trough typically persisted in the means for 1-2 weeks.

Looking ahead to May, 73% of cases that saw one or more days where the NAO fell to -1.000 or below during April 1-10, 1950-2019, as was the case this April, wound up with a warmer than normal May. In addition, two-thirds of cases that saw the MJO reach Phase 8 at an amplitude of 2.000 or above during the April 5-20 period, as happened this month, saw a warmer than normal May.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.6°C for the week centered around April 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.72°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.58°C. Neutral and occasionally warm ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least the end of April.

The SOI was -16.51 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.082.

On April 15, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.203 (RMM). The April 14-adjusted amplitude was 1.411.

February 2020 saw the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly increase by more than 0.50°C. Such a development has typically occurred before a warmer than normal summer. In all such cases, a warmer than normal spring was followed by a warmer than normal summer. Therefore, a warmer than normal summer is currently more likely than not. Should Spring wind up warmer than normal, a warm or even hot summer will be very likely.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 57% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal April. April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 52.5°.

 

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3 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Just can’t be a winter without an I-90 special. Crazy that it’s mid April but Boston looks to finally get a significant snow event. 

I think Boston will have Surface temp issues. Northern Ct and Orh county will definitely get 3-5. 

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3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

I think Boston will have Surface temp issues. Northern Ct and Orh county will definitely get 3-5. 

We had 6-8” right down to the coast in April 2018 (overnight) and almost midday in April 2003. This is coming at night mostly. If it comes in heavy enough there won’t be a problem getting to a few inches at least. 

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12 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

We had 6-8” right down to the coast in April 2018 (overnight) and almost midday in April 2003. This is coming at night mostly. If it comes in heavy enough there won’t be a problem getting to a few inches at least. 

I can 2-3 in the city while the northwest burbs get 3-6. It will depend on where the best mid level lift sets up. It will be a narrow band that really Rips while north and south of it get mood flakes. 

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Down to freezing now.

Seeing widespread upper 20s for NJ and with the growing season 2-3 weeks ahead of schedule it's a pretty impactful freeze. 

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The next 8 days are averaging 49.5degs., or 4.5degs. BN.

Month to date is  +1.1[51.7].          Should be about  -0.6[51.1] by the 24th.

37* here at 7am.     42* by 10am.        49* at 3pm.        46* at 6pm.

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4 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Down to freezing now.

Seeing widespread upper 20s for NJ and with the growing season 2-3 weeks ahead of schedule it's a pretty impactful freeze. 

...I got down to 32.2 *

..KFOK unbelievably got down to 22*.

..i did have some lettuce and spinach planted..glad i covered them last nite.

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Looks like ISP tied the record low of 30 this morning. Several record lows to our west last few days. Very strong -EPO/-NAO pattern continues.

17 Apr 7:56 am 39 22 50 33 W 8    10.00   FEW250 30.20 1026.3 30.31         39 30  

 

4/17 30 in 2005 30 in 1971 31 in 1966

5E71D090-55C1-4B6E-B033-74FA3C2717CB.thumb.jpeg.f5d7db22ee5343d384314988018f272a.jpeg

 

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6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Looks like we warm up nicely starting Sunday-temps in the 60's.

Today and Saturday look chilly. Sunday will be nice but then it gets cooler again. 

No 70+ days though and models are hinting at a short duration strong cold shot early next week that's been trending stronger/further south and could result in record low temperatures.

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Morning thoughts...

1. Unseasonably cool temperatures prevailed this morning. A few locations saw temperatures approach or reach or exceed the daily record low temperature. Low temperatures included:

Albany: 27; Allentown: 30; Bridgeport: 34; Harrisburg: 29 (tied record set in 1904 and tied in 1980); Islip: 30 (tied record set in 1971 and tied in 2005); New York City: 36; Newark: 32 (near the record of 30 set in 1980); Philadelphia: 34; Poughkeepsie: 25; White Plains: 31 (near the record of 30 set in 1980); and, Westhampton: 20 (old record: 21, 2005).

2. Even colder temperatures prevailed in parts of Wyoming. Such temperatures included:

Casper: 16 (near the record of 15 set in 1945); Cheyenne: 5 (old record: 8, 1901); and, Laramie: -11 (old record 0, 1999).

The -11 temperature was only the second case where Laramie had a temperature of -10 or below in April. The only other such case occurred on April 2, 1975 when the temperature reached -14. Records go back to 1948.

3. A storm was continuing to track eastward. Snow was falling in parts of northern Illinois, northern Indiana, and southern Michigan. Snow was approaching the greater Detroit area. Rain was falling south of there. This system will bring snow from an area stretching from northeastern Pennsylvania across central New York State and then eastward into central and southern New England.

Snowfall estimates include:

Albany: 3"-6"
Binghamton: 3"-6"
Boston: 1" or 3"
Scranton: 2"-4"

The last time Boston had measurable snow in April was April 2, 2018 when 0.7" fell. The last time Boston saw 1" or more snow in April was April 4, 2016 when 4.7" fell.

 

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Got down to 30 here, first time below freezing since March 8th. It was very brief, thankfully, but still rather annoying.

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14 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Today and Saturday look chilly. Sunday will be nice but then it gets cooler again. 

No 70+ days though and models are hinting at a short duration strong cold shot early next week that's been trending stronger/further south and could result in record low temperatures.

A piece of the TPV actually drops as far south as Maine. It’s believable with such a strong -EPO/-NAO. 

82DBE488-DD55-45C5-AA36-D37311E94A4D.gif.b342ab37fb9257f66a1f533055bafdc1.gif

 

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7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

A piece of the TPV actually drops as far south as Maine. It’s believable with such a strong -EPO/-NAO. 

82DBE488-DD55-45C5-AA36-D37311E94A4D.gif.b342ab37fb9257f66a1f533055bafdc1.gif

 

It would have been nice to get some snow like SNE is getting. 

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5 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

If I get the goods tonight, I'll post some pics. Should be a beautiful sight tomorrow morning. NAM isn't backing down, juiced and subfreezing in my location. Great timing too. 

namconus_asnow_neus_11.png

I should have taken a trip to Coopertown this week.

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2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

It would have been nice to get some snow like SNE is getting. 

It’s tough to get an accumulation at the coast so late in the season. But 2014 was the 3rd latest measurable snowfall on record for us. The trough locked in over the Great Lakes from the winter through the summer that year. 

First/Last Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Last
Value
First
Value
Difference
1986 04-23 (1986) 0.1 12-09 (1986) 0.9 229
1983 04-19 (1983) 4.1 11-25 (1983) 1.2 219
2014 04-16 (2014) 0.1 11-26 (2014) 1.4 223

 

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3 hours ago, MJO812 said:

It would have been nice to get some snow like SNE is getting. 

The low is moving right overhead and along I-80. Even if this was mid January this would be rain here. Unfortunately it’s perfect for a I-90 event. If it would’ve moved through DC to Cape May instead it would be a different story. And it’ll be a crazy few hours or so in SNE where the snow comes down, maybe 2”/hr rates. Boston won’t get as much as ORH or the hilly places inland, but should do well too (few inches or more I think-it’s overnight and will come down heavy). 

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4 hours ago, bluewave said:

A piece of the TPV actually drops as far south as Maine. It’s believable with such a strong -EPO/-NAO. 

82DBE488-DD55-45C5-AA36-D37311E94A4D.gif.b342ab37fb9257f66a1f533055bafdc1.gif

 

On the bright side, the GFS and Euro are showing a nice warm shot for next weekend, 70’s, maybe even approaching 80 degrees 

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