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Hoosier

2020 Short/Medium Range Severe Thread

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2 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

Yea, tomorrow definitely has potential from E IA and across N IL.

 

SPC holding at marginal is comical, but par for the course with them.

 

Unfortunately I’ll still be out of town for this one.

Yeah I was surprised about the new day 2.  I thought Jewell was one of the better forecasters, but who knows.  

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12 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Yeah I was surprised about the new day 2.  I thought Jewell was one of the better forecasters, but who knows.  

As someone who works in the media, I actually appreciate a conservative approach, especially when storm threats around here are so conditional. Forecasters who don't jump the gun too early, but communicate uncertainty and discuss all possibilities are the usually the better meteorologists overall. Hype/worst case scenarios for EVERY thunderstorm threat is unnecessary and exhausting. 

It's a lot better to ramp up as the situation becomes clearer than to go in guns a blazin', only to walk it back with a bruised reputation.

I also concede being too conservative can also be bad. It's a fine line :)

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37 minutes ago, WxMatt21 said:

As someone who works in the media, I actually appreciate a conservative approach, especially when storm threats around here are so conditional. Forecasters who don't jump the gun too early, but communicate uncertainty and discuss all possibilities are the usually the better meteorologists overall. Hype/worst case scenarios for EVERY thunderstorm threat is unnecessary and exhausting. 

It's a lot better to ramp up as the situation becomes clearer than to go in guns a blazin', only to walk it back with a bruised reputation.

I also concede being too conservative can also be bad. It's a fine line :)

I mean, I agree with not hyping up everything, but I think a slight risk would've been justified on a day 2 update in this case.  We aren't taking about mod/high. 

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1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

I mean, I agree with not hyping up everything, but I think a slight risk would've been justified on a day 2 update in this case.  We aren't taking about mod/high. 

Agree a slight risk upgrade would've been reasonable given an enhanced risk ceiling across a small corridor. I like the overlay of shear and instability across northern and possibly central IL. Chicago is likely in play too given early AM fog will clear quickly.

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00z runs look pretty decent.  

I guess if I had to nitpick, it would be the low-mid level flow.  It's good enough for an organized severe threat (incl tornadoes) but perhaps on the lower side of adequate.

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SLGT risk for extreme Eastern IA into N IL including Chicago on new day 1... 15% hail and 5% tor

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Quote

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1254 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2020  
 
VALID 231200Z - 241200Z  

 
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN  
ILLINOIS AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS...  
   
..SUMMARY
 
 
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, INCLUDING A TORNADO THREAT, WILL  
DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, SOME WITH VERY LARGE HAIL, WILL BE NOTED  
ACROSS THE PLAINS.  
   
..NORTHERN IL
 
 
UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHWESTERN IA IS FORECAST TO EJECT INTO EASTERN IA  
BY 18Z, THEN WEAKEN SOME AS IT EJECTS INTO SOUTHERN WI BY EARLY  
EVENING. 50KT 500MB SPEED MAX SHOULD TRANSLATE ACROSS NORTHERN MO  
INTO NORTHERN IL DURING THE AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL ENHANCE SHEAR AND  
THE LIKELIHOOD FOR SUPERCELLS IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW.  
LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MID 60S SURFACE DEW  
POINTS WILL ADVANCE NORTH ACROSS IL INTO A REGION OF FAVORABLE  
LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST  
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING ACROSS EASTERN IA  
BENEATH THE UPPER LOW, WHILE DOWNSTREAM, PORTIONS OF NORTHERN IL  
WILL EXPERIENCE A BIT MORE DESTABILIZATION AS PARTIAL SUNSHINE  
SHOULD ALLOW THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO WARM WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES  
RISING INTO THE MID-UPPER 70S. AS A RESULT, MLCAPE VALUES SHOULD  
EXCEED 1500 J/KG WITHIN A SHEARED REGIME FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS.  
LATEST THINKING IS SCATTERED SUPERCELLS WILL EVOLVE BY EARLY  
AFTERNOON NEAR THE IA/NORTHWESTERN IL BORDER THEN SPREAD EAST TOWARD  
THE CHICAGO METRO BY EARLY EVENING. HAIL, WIND, AND A FEW TORNADOES  
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY.  
   
 

 

 

swody1_tornadoprob.png

swody1_categorical.png

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Tornado watch up across central IA.

Quote

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 229  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
120 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2020  
 
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF  
CENTRAL IOWA  
 
* EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 120 PM UNTIL  
800 PM CDT.  
 
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...  
A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE  
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE  
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE  
 
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS FORMING OVER SOUTHERN IOWA AND NORTHERN  
MISSOURI WILL TRACK NORTHWARD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA, POSING A  
LOCALIZED RISK OF BRIEF TORNADOES AND GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS.  
 
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE MILES  
EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF MASON CITY  
IA TO 25 MILES EAST OF LAMONI IA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE  
WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR  
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH  
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR  
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS  
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

 

ww0229_radar.gif

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There are possible tornadoes near Wells, MN and Rowan, IA right now. The storm cells is so small, the moderate/heavy rain may be falling in a 2mi x 4mi corridor in both.

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Not even a marginal risk in this area and the pulse-type storms are already spawning a mini-severe outbreak in central IL.  TOG southwest of Taylorville, IL.  Decatur in crosshairs if it continues on its path:

 

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
615 PM CDT Thu May 28 2020

The National Weather Service in Lincoln has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Southwestern Christian County in central Illinois...

* Until 645 PM CDT.

* At 614 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located near Harvel, or 5
  miles southwest of Morrisonville, moving northeast at 25 mph.

  HAZARD...Damaging tornado and quarter size hail.

  SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree
           damage is likely.

* The tornado will be near...
  Morrisonville around 625 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
Palmer.

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
720 PM CDT Thu May 28 2020

The National Weather Service in Lincoln has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Central Moultrie County in central Illinois...

* Until 745 PM CDT.

* At 717 PM CDT, a confirmed landspout tornado was located south of
  Dalton City, or about 3 miles northwest of Bethany, moving east at
  30 mph.

  HAZARD...Very weak or landspout tornadoes.

  SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed landspout tornado.

  IMPACT...Expect damage to mobile homes, roofs, and vehicles.

* The tornado will be near...
  Bethany around 720 PM CDT.
  Sullivan and Lovington around 735 PM CDT.

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looks like a decent chance of storms around here by midday or early afternoon. nice 700mb wave coming in with ample sun ahead of it. drier dews could allow for some pulse type, outflow-dominant activity. the lucky ones will probably see 2-3 rounds today according to most of the latest hi-res.

1205264928_ScreenShot2020-06-20at6_04_16AM.thumb.png.eda10956dcbf74304a849a83c9ea88ec.png

 

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LOL, we were removed from yesterday's Day 3 Marginal risk (for Monday) on the first Day 2, then added back to it on the update. Guess we'll have to keep an eye out for more shenanigans.

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1 hour ago, CheeselandSkies said:

LOL, we were removed from yesterday's Day 3 Marginal risk (for Monday) on the first Day 2, then added back to it on the update. Guess we'll have to keep an eye out for more shenanigans.

Classic Broyles.

He seriously has no business having a job at SPC.

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Slight risk added to a good chunk of the northern half of IL.

Quote

..ILLINOIS AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF IA/MO TO WESTERN INDIANA  
 
HAVE UPGRADED PORTIONS OF THE REGION FOR A WIND-RELATED CATEGORICAL  
SLIGHT RISK. DECAYING OUTFLOW AND PREVALENT CLOUD COVER COMPLICATE  
THE SCENARIO SOMEWHAT, BUT MODERATE DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED  
PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA  
AHEAD OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE  
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY  
EVENING.

 

spccoday1.categorical.latest.png

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Today looks like a similar threat as was seen on Saturday.

Isolated severe, but nothing widespread...and with more widespread rain and general t'storms.

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