• Member Statistics

    15,844
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    NEILwxbo
    Newest Member
    NEILwxbo
    Joined
Dr. Dews

March 2020 disc/obs

Recommended Posts

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah just look at '97....that was a blue bomb (albeit historic and extreme) surrounded by 60F tshirt weather....there wasn't anything large scale in the hemispheric long wave pattern that drove that to happen like, say, April 1982 when we were in the midst of a "February in April" type pattern with  -10 to -15C sitting over us on the eve of the event with the entire northenr half of the CONUS well below 0C at 850.

In '97 I was hitting golf balls at the driving range the day before in short sleeves and even overheard a couple dudes laughing about the 6-10" forecast for the next day not believing it....they were right to be skeptical, just in the wrong direction, haha. But as you said....perfectly timed bowling ball that went nuts.

That's exactly what it's going to take..something extremely well and perfectly timed and obviously there is really no way to know that in advance...I suppose there could be some signals in the medium/long range (very similar to what Tip was pointing out. but if it were to happen...I think it's something that gets picked up on 2-3 days out...not something we're tracking 7-10 days out. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There might be that small window after day 7. Kind of a grinder overrunning look perhaps with some Hudson Bay ridging. That is the time where models were trying to show something as well. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, weatherwiz said:

That's exactly what it's going to take..something extremely well and perfectly timed and obviously there is really no way to know that in advance...I suppose there could be some signals in the medium/long range (very similar to what Tip was pointing out. but if it were to happen...I think it's something that gets picked up on 2-3 days out...not something we're tracking 7-10 days out. 

3/12 on the Euro is a good example of well-timed....there's a brief cold sot behind the 3/10-11 system and another shortwave on its heels runs into that cold....I doubt it stays that way on guidance, but there is nothing inherently wrong with the solution...it's just that it's kind of a tedious setup so it's likely to mess up somewhere.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
26 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Nah. I read it and approved. I’m in your camp. We’ll see.

Yeah ...'was only bustin' ...  

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah just look at '97....that was a blue bomb (albeit historic and extreme) surrounded by 60F tshirt weather....there wasn't anything large scale in the hemispheric long wave pattern that drove that to happen like, say, April 1982 when we were in the midst of a "February in April" type pattern with  -10 to -15C sitting over us on the eve of the event with the entire northenr half of the CONUS well below 0C at 850.

In '97 I was hitting golf balls at the driving range the day before in short sleeves and even overheard a couple dudes laughing about the 6-10" forecast for the next day not believing it....they were right to be skeptical, just in the wrong direction, haha. But as you said....perfectly timed bowling ball that went nuts.

Oh yeah... great example. zactly 

It may be more of an intuitive feel but think like we're prone to this, this spring. More discretely though... there's a lot a wave mechanics that seems "strand-able" and with that cold lurking... warm all the time, alla 2012 doesn't seem like it's walking through the door. 

You know, we may get lucky with warmth?  ... mm, and if we do ..few will really understand that's all that happened lol

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

3/12 on the Euro is a good example of well-timed....there's a brief cold sot behind the 3/10-11 system and another shortwave on its heels runs into that cold....I doubt it stays that way on guidance, but there is nothing inherently wrong with the solution...it's just that it's kind of a tedious setup so it's likely to mess up somewhere.

This is actually a good example where EPS (outside of looking at individual members) could be rather mis-leading. The window is so small that when looking at EPS for that period that signal is extremely muted but when you look at the individual members Tip posted you can actually see the signal much more clearly. That may be our final shot at anything...I think after that cold shot is when we really warm up. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

gorgeous Sun/Mon still on track. Take

The ridge axis builds eastward into the Great Lakes down to the
Southeastern US on Sunday. The surface high builds eastward into the
Carolinas and eventually offshore, but this will continue relaxing
the pressure gradient. It still may be a bit breezy as there is
still roughly 15-20 kts of wind to tap into the mixed layer, but
much lighter in comparison to Saturday. Temperatures will rebound as
flow aloft shifts to a westerly direction, which advects warmer air
in. Expect 0 to +5 degree Celsius 850 hPa air to advect in. Highs
rebound into the mid 40s and low 50s across the region.

Will see southwesterly warm air advection into Monday where +5 to +8
degree Celsius 850 hPa air moves in. This will continue to upward
trend in temperatures. Highs will generally be in the 50s, but
expect several spots to see readings in the lower 60s.
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

And that 1997 is in my top three coveted fav' events of all time.  Depending on my mood, that order mixes up between:    Feb 1978 (Michigan - different storm); Apr 1997; Dec 1992 ...  

I remember Harvey Leonard on his 6 pm mid previous week, "...Should this deep feature manage to pass under Long Island..."   stressing the risk in having that do so.. He was talking about the ( then ) MRF synoptic evolution of a deepening 500 mb closed surface. 

So, Saturday morning I get my usual large french vanilla with cream and sugar and Advil and head on up to the Weather Lab to see where we stood; seeing as that was being side-ways mentioned in AFDs and the Euro was suggestive too.  I saw, I wanna say, Drag ( I think, Sorry Walt) mentioned the MRF ensemble members were bulging west toward the New England Coast, indicating plausible correction vectoring toward more concern...etc.. So it was smoldering in the met community.  

Imagine my heart ...as I knock back the Advil into a hang-over in front of a yummy first dram off my coffee, and all of it almost comes out my nose when Harvey's vision of management was outright modeled in full fury leaped of the primitive ( by today's standard) web interface.  It was 59 F at the time. It ended up maxing 63 F, that day, two days before cat-paws warned in...  After getting my weather johnson all lubed up and ready to go, I left and walked across the campus to Fox Tower for brunch.

The sky was hazy blue, and the fair weather CU was even elevated ... as though even the anomalously warm boundary layer was as clueless as the students lavishing in it. I can recall the t-shirt and cargo shorts vibe.  It was a common garb of choice along my walk, as frisbies sailed over 20 year-old flawless designs taking advantage of the sun upon blankets festooning the commons out side of the dorm halls. Sculpted out of God's clay, indescribable forms - trying to be civil about it was almost like when I worked radar at Weather Service Corp, and witness the zygote blip of the 1999 May Oklahoma City F5 producing cell; just knowing that someone, somewhere, over that sucker's ensuing 50 miles were utterly oblivious to their destiny.  That's always a weird head space .. you just keep it to your self. And that tepidly warm utopia was just the same.     

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Man... the ICON and GGEM are amazingly engineered tools for modeling wrongly - 

Or - coup brewing ? 

They just won't give up...The GGEM dynamically flips SE zones to about 4-6" of reasonably high impact advisory look on this run... 

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
26 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Man... the ICON and GGEM are amazingly engineered tools for modeling wrongly - 

Or - coup brewing ? 

They just won't give up...The GGEM dynamically flips SE zones to about 4-6" of reasonably high impact advisory look on this run... 

Shows almost of foot down here. HAHA.... thing is off it's rocker.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
35 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

Dr dew must feel all tingly inside after looking at the hr 342 GFS.

approved

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs is still weak and cold for the 12th

I feel so bad for you. Your winter lasted like 2 days and the Mets season will be about 1-2 days. They'll be a GB after losing opening day and it will just be downhill from there. 

But it's time to embrace spring man...love it, enjoy it. Lotion up the :weenie: Monday and just lay outside and enjoy as your thermometer tickles 70

  • Haha 3
  • Confused 3
  • Sad 1
  • Weenie 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

I feel so bad for you. Your winter lasted like 2 days and the Mets season will be about 1-2 days. They'll be a GB after losing opening day and it will just be downhill from there. 

But it's time to embrace spring man...love it, enjoy it. Lotion up the :weenie: Monday and just lay outside and enjoy as your thermometer tickles 70

That's mean. Because of their ownership foibles, the perception around the league is that they're the Knicks. But they actually have a very solid, balanced team this year.

  • Like 1
  • Weenie 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
45 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It’s...not...over.

I don’t disagree, hopefully bowling ball season can deliver. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Check out the gfs at 246 lol Brrrr

Gfs has a cold biased and snowy outlook around that timeframe this whole winter hopefully we get lucky but time is running out.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.