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30 minutes ago, doncat said:

It was still in the 60's here as late as 3:30pm with a se wind...wind then shifted sw and we soared to 78°.

Staten Island & Central Jersey have the best spring climo in the area. Best area climate in general.

Temp here was still in the low/mid 50’s at about 3:30pm. Holding at 69 here now, hasn’t budged in about 15 minutes following a rapid rise.

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The first 5 days of April are burning now  at +10[59], so many more days like today to score.

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6 hours ago, Cfa said:

Staten Island & Central Jersey have the best spring climo in the area. Best area climate in general.

Temp here was still in the low/mid 50’s at about 3:30pm. Holding at 69 here now, hasn’t budged in about 15 minutes following a rapid rise.

You could extend that into Brooklyn, we went from mid 50s to 79 pretty quickly. Was at the barbershop at 12pm and was with a sweater and around 4 i was in a shirt 

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5th warmest March so far in NYC between 2016 and 2010.

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Mar
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 1945 51.1 0
2 2012 50.9 0
3 1946 49.8 0
4 2016 48.9 0
5 2020 48.8 11
6 1921 48.4 0
7 2010 48.2 0
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The next 8 days are averaging 49degs. or 4degs. AN.  (used 68/38 for today)

Month to date is  +8.1[48.8].        Should be about  +6.9[49.0] by the 29th.

The first 6 days of April are about  +5[54].

45* here at 7am.     44* at 8am.      43* at 9am.         50* by 3pm.         Somehow my thermometer was affected by the sun, even though rays never get near it-----I had 57* at 5pm.

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37 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

The next 8 days are averaging 49degs. or 4degs. AN.  (used 68/38 for today)

Month to date is  +8.1[48.8].        Should be about  +6.9[49.0] by the 29th.

45* here at 7am.

Just crazy that we'll finish March close to +7 and then April starts out +10....when will it end?!?!?

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10 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Just crazy that we'll finish March close to +7 and then April starts out +10....when will it end?!?!?

JB’s cold March hype turned into another massive bust. That guy might as well go into hiding for a really long time 

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5 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

JB’s cold March hype turned into another massive bust. That guy might as well go into hiding for a really long time 

Interestingly he posted about how the warm oceans have clearly had an effect on the climate and that the big nationwide cold winters are a thing of the past.   There will be cold regionally but the warmth has to be respected-it was a sobering post considering the source!  

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57 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Interestingly he posted about how the warm oceans have clearly had an effect on the climate and that the big nationwide cold winters are a thing of the past.   There will be cold regionally but the warmth has to be respected-it was a sobering post considering the source!  

Did he explain why the oceans have warmed?

Also, the unfolding March outcome was a function of 2 major variables:

1. Far more limited supply of cold (than 1960)

2. Absence of a mechanism to drive and then lock the cold into the CONUS.

 

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3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Did he explain why the oceans have warmed?

Also, the unfolding March outcome was a function of 2 major variables:

1. Far more limited supply of cold (than 1960)

2. Absence of a mechanism to drive and then lock the cold into the CONUS.

 

Don, with many, the dawn approaches slowly, the light inexorably routs the darkness. None can hold it back. As always ....

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I'm sure nobody cares but the setup Monday per the 12Z NAM is classic if you want decent snow here from this sort of event.   The Euro not as much  but the NAM has the classic high center near NB/Maine and the system coming up almost straight from the south.

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Interior areas look like they are best positioned to cash in on the MJO 2-4 next week.

0760C737-AA22-495E-A453-3A5815A19611.gif.3c3147a7db513326827de0fee3221bbe.gif

 

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3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Interior areas look like they are best positioned to cash in on the MJO 2-4 next week.

0760C737-AA22-495E-A453-3A5815A19611.gif.3c3147a7db513326827de0fee3221bbe.gif

 

I thought those phases are even good for coastal regions.

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23 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I thought those phases are even good for coastal regions.

It’s all about the context. We have been stuck in a cutter, hugger, and suppressed southern stream storm track for the last two years. So the storm on Monday will hug the coast. Root for the high to hold on long enough so even the coast can see a few wet snow flakes. But the interior continues to be favored for the best. We can all remember the big interior snowfall totals in early December with the MJO 2 passage at the time. 

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the ao and nao are forecast to go negative for a few days before the end of the month...this would be the first time since mid December  the ao will be negative...probably to little to late but it has snowed in April after a blah winter...if the ao/nao drive towards negative is short then April will be warm...

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47 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It’s all about the context. We have been stuck in a cutter, hugger, and suppressed southern stream storm track for the last two years. So the storm on Monday will hug the coast. Root for the high to hold on long enough so even the coast can see a few wet snow flakes. But the interior continues to be favored for the best. We can all remember the big interior snowfall totals in early December with the MJO 2 passage at the time. 

Big? In context I guess but nah, not so much.

It's nice and crisp today and it looks like tomorrow morning ought to be downright cold ahead of this storm, I've seen worse setups that's for sure. 

 

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4 minutes ago, uncle W said:

the ao and nao are forecast to go negative for a few days before the end of the month...this would be the first time since mid December  the ao will be negative...probably to little to late but it has snowed in April after a blah winter...if the ao/nao drive towards negative is short then April will be warm...

While that North Atlantic cold pool has been a dominant feature since 2013, it really stands out now due to the record +AO pattern.

 

FB1099F7-2273-45A9-A670-04D9E6535609.png.4ae7231ad982d3940eb20151af2f83e7.png

 

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2 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

Big? In context I guess but nah, not so much.

It's nice and crisp today and it looks like tomorrow morning ought to be downright cold ahead of this storm, I've seen worse setups that's for sure. 

 

Big further into the interior around places like Albany.

https://www.weather.gov/aly/1-3Dec2019Snow

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8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

While that North Atlantic cold pool has been a dominant feature since 2013, it really stands out now due to the record +AO pattern.

 

FB1099F7-2273-45A9-A670-04D9E6535609.png.4ae7231ad982d3940eb20151af2f83e7.png

 

From a position of ignorance but curious; is the North Atlantic cold pool due to Greenland ice melt? As always .....

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2 hours ago, rclab said:

From a position of ignorance but curious; is the North Atlantic cold pool due to Greenland ice melt? As always .....

Stronger winds caused by the persistent +NAO/+AO pattern since 2013.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-14474-y

Abstract

The Atlantic Ocean overturning circulation is important to the climate system because it carries heat and carbon northward, and from the surface to the deep ocean. The high salinity of the subpolar North Atlantic is a prerequisite for overturning circulation, and strong freshening could herald a slowdown. We show that the eastern subpolar North Atlantic underwent extreme freshening during 2012 to 2016, with a magnitude never seen before in 120 years of measurements. The cause was unusual winter wind patterns driving major changes in ocean circulation, including slowing of the North Atlantic Current and diversion of Arctic freshwater from the western boundary into the eastern basins. We find that wind-driven routing of Arctic-origin freshwater intimately links conditions on the North West Atlantic shelf and slope region with the eastern subpolar basins. This reveals the importance of atmospheric forcing of intra-basin circulation in determining the salinity of the subpolar North Atlantic.

Finally we note that during this period, anomalously strong surface winter heat loss from the ocean to the atmosphere, and the subsequent deep winter mixing contributed to the development of an extreme cold anomaly north of the NAC in the central SPNA53,54. 

 

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4 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I'm sure nobody cares but the setup Monday per the 12Z NAM is classic if you want decent snow here from this sort of event.   The Euro not as much  but the NAM has the classic high center near NB/Maine and the system coming up almost straight from the south.

Timing couldn't be worse but NAM depiction can easily be a solid initial dump(obviously BL temp, ground temp and sun hurt).

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The GFS case for at least seeing some  snow in the air around here(nw of City).        Just a narrow zone of the atmosphere supports it, for maybe an early 6 hour period, Monday morning:

29554424_skewt.png?164538139349

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Cooler air has moved back into the region. In coming days, a storm will come eastward. As a result, parts of the region, especially an area running from central Pennsylvania across northwestern New Jersey, across central New York State into southern New England, will likely receive a snowfall early next week. Parts of that highlighted area have the highest probability of picking up a 3"-6" snowfall with some locally higher amounts, but there remains some uncertainty.

The 18z NAM and 18z GFS were high and low outliers. Both models were largely discounted.

Likely snowfall estimates include:

Albany: 3"-6"
Binghamton: 3"-6"
Boston: 1" or less
Poughkeepsie: 1"-3"
Scranton: 1"-3"
Worcester: 3"-6"

Little or no snow is likely in New York City, Newark, and Philadelphia. Afterward, the closing days of the month will likely be warmer than normal.

Winter 2019-2020 is the 8th winter on record that saw New York City receive less than 6" seasonal snowfall through March 21. Mean total snowfall for the 10 prior cases was 5.4" vs. the historic mean figure of 28.8". All such winters wound up with less than 10" seasonal snowfall vs. 6% of winters in the historic record. The snowiest case from those prior winters was 1900-01 with 9.1" seasonal snowfall.

Based on the historic data, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities (Baltimore, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC) and Boston through the remainder of the 2019-2020 snow season. It is possible that at least some of those cities have seen their last snowfall of winter 2019-2020.

As a result, New York City will very likely finish winter 2019-2020 with less than 10" snow for the first time since winter 2011-2012 and for only the 10th time on record. Snowfall records go back to winter 1868-1869 (when 25.5" fell from January-March 1869).

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around March 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.60°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.40°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through March.

The SOI was -7.32 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +2.718.

A "final warming" stratospheric seasonal event will likely begin to develop during the last week of March.

On March 20, the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.729 (RMM). The March 19-adjusted amplitude was 1.709.

A sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. A warmer than normal March and spring remain the base case.

February 2020 saw the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly increase by more than 0.50°C. Such a development has typically occurred before a warmer than normal summer. In all such cases, a warmer than normal spring was followed by a warmer than normal summer. Therefore, a warmer than normal summer is currently more likely than not. Should Spring wind up warmer than normal, a warm or even hot summer will be very likely.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March. There is an implied 78% probability that March 2020 will rank among the 10 warmest March cases on record. March will likely finish with a monthly mean temperature near 48.2°, which would rank as the 6th warmest March on record. 

Finally, in most cases following strong AO+ February and March periods, ridging is present in the East during April. Such an outcome would favor a warmer than normal April in much of the East. The CFSv2 has been shifting in that direction in recent days.

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6 hours ago, Ericjcrash said:

Timing couldn't be worse but NAM depiction can easily be a solid initial dump(obviously BL temp, ground temp and sun hurt).

Yea from late November to early March the NAM is a great look but at this time of year even the NAM is probably white rain to rain for many

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The NAM has been pretty consistent, not counting the 18z run, with NW Jersey & upstate getting some accumulating snow. The 0z run is back to that idea. Probably white rain at the start for everyone else then rain.

 

Sent from my GM1925 using Tapatalk

 

 

 

 

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On 3/18/2020 at 10:15 AM, snowman19 said:

This will be an all time top warmest and least snowy winter ever. It has earned its place in history right next to 72-73, 97-98, 01-02, 11-12. 91-92 was no bargain either

include 88-89 and 89-90 in that list.

 

damn the 80s and early 90s sucked lol

 

 

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23 minutes ago, Barman49 said:

The NAM has been pretty consistent, not counting the 18z run, with NW Jersey & upstate getting some accumulating snow. The 0z run is back to that idea. Probably white rain at the start for everyone else then rain.

 

Sent from my GM1925 using Tapatalk

 

 

 

 

NAM is actually a legit advisory level event for most areas NW of the city but the NAM is on it's own right now

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NAM is actually a legit advisory level event for most areas NW of the city but the NAM is on it's right now
It's definitely overdone but 1-3/2-4 for that area wouldn't be out of the question. 3k & RGEM support that.

Sent from my GM1925 using Tapatalk

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27 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

NAM is actually a legit advisory level event for most areas NW of the city but the NAM is on it's own right now

Too bad it’s an outlier 

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