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Tar Heel Snow

One More Shot: Feb 20-21 Event

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5 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

The QPF of the EURO bumped up due to a closer development of the low near the coast.  However, the snow is still anemic because it delays the arrival of the cold air, due to the poor placement of the high.  

It's in basically the same place on all the models, NAM and GFS included so I'm not certain that's it. I thought that's been mentioned as like the perfect placement for strong HP during Miller A/over running? 

Looking at the pressure maps on the Euro vs the NAM. The NAM shows the high spilling over the Apps and creating a bit of a wedge signal. Idk if that is the reason for low snow, or if it's even significant though. ecmwf-deterministic-conus-mslp-2210800.thumb.png.2b4ba9bad6fae8253ae859d926684d24.png

nam-218-all-conus-mslp-2210800.png

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1 minute ago, PackGrad05 said:

Yes, the high is in the same placement in all those but it is taking longer to bleed the cold air over the apps in the euro/eps.

Which, at this lead we should be using short term guidance more for thermals I believe? So as long as the Euro keeps bringing the juice I think it may self correct at crunch time. 

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Lol of course SE local mets are going to start with the whole soil temps nonsense. It's almost like they don't know all that much about snow storms. Soil temps almost never matter in a noticeable way. Well documented soil temps were in the mid to upper 50s last week in GA and it certainly didn't hinder accumulations, and where the rates were heavy roads quickly became snowpacked. Also, many of our most infamous storms in history were immediately preceded by several 70+ degree days lol. 

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You are correct, the synoptics are completely different this time though. Nothing in the upperlevels supports a extreme heavy snow event. More likely light to moderate. 

Maybe not the Synoptics, but at the mesoscale level the tight thermal gradient will cause a lot of forcing via frontogenesis, as well as straight up warm air advection. A gfs-or-nam like event would support heavy snow bands.
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This has a feel like much like the best of the Hampton Roads storms I've experienced, just further south with the strong high, and fed by the robust southern stream that had been featured all winter. All that to say, a dynamic developing system with cold air over the top goes a long way.

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1 minute ago, ILMRoss said:


Maybe not the Synoptics, but at the mesoscale level the tight thermal gradient will cause a lot of forcing via frontogenesis, as well as straight up warm air advection. A gfs-or-nam like event would support heavy snow bands.

The NAM  FGEN is :wub:  it should go nuts if the NAM is right...

 

namconus_temp_adv_fgen_700_seus_45.thumb.png.40427954c93cc0195f96011673f1d970.png

 

namconus_temp_adv_fgen_850_seus_43.thumb.png.b6225e2c357cc14d95ac66746edead4b.png

 

 

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13 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

SREF just completely caved to the NAM too. Probably doubled snowfall in places from its previous run. 300262231_sref-all-mean-se-total_snow_10to1-2351200(1).thumb.png.64685f55a0f0818093f1e0f71d171fda.pngsref-all-mean-se-total_snow_10to1-2351200.thumb.png.e6a447906a765c59344323ff14908aec.png

We were at 1.6, roughly, and now at 3.6 roughly.

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24 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

This has a feel like much like the best of the Hampton Roads storms I've experienced, just further south with the strong high, and fed by the robust southern stream that had been featured all winter. All that to say, a dynamic developing system with cold air over the top goes a long way.

The 04ish VA Beach storm?

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It's amazing we have the best models there have ever been and they still disagree so much this close to the storm.

I was in Greensboro last winter for the 14 inch storm (and was in Boone the same storm when 2 plus feet fell)  but kind of doubt anyone gets jackpotted like that. Would love to be proven wrong.

Not holding much hope in Charlotte but a few inches would be great 

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Looks like more traditional battle lines (Snow/sleet/rain), given where the HP is projected to be. 

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