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February to Forget Volume 2 - 2020

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15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Can't shake the troughing out west this season. Comes right back on the EPS.

This is what I mean when I said the models look bad this morning. The stupid trough in the west keeps coming back.

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With that said, of note is the coastal low which evolves from the coastal mid-Atlantic northward towards coastal New England late Wed nite into Thurs. Prior runs of the ECMWF were hinting at this period being one to watch for coastal low pressure, and now the GFS indicates an approximately similar solution. Uncertainty`s large in this period with complex interaction of shortwaves aloft heavily influencing what ultimately transpires, but an interior wintry event around Thursday is a possible outcome and is something to watch in the coming days.

 

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5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

This is what I mean when I said the models look bad this morning. The stupid trough in the west keeps coming back.

Verbatim it’s not bad here, but I know what it could entail with that look. Just wish we could shake things up. It’s had that look for a couple of days. 

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2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Actually last night’s ensembles were the best they’ve looked since December. Not saying I believe them , but there’s no denying winter at least has a chance starting next Thursday. I think you live south of NYC, so maybe there they look bad 

Chrysalis forming...

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Somebody want to tell me about the Euro fail in the SE. 06 Euro now down to an inch or 2. Nam headed that way, GFS there. Euro has been meh for a long time

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39 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Don't.

 

30 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Stop

 

25 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Believing

 

24 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Street lights....people?

LOL

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That early week wave could have a huge say in things. The airmass for much of next week is quite warm..perhaps if that early week wave comes weaker/flatter that will mute the air mass a bit...but it just seems like it might be another system with crappy airmass and then after the storm (end of week) we get the cold :axe: 

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3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Somebody want to tell me about the Euro fail in the SE. 06 a now down to an inch or 2. Nam headed that way, GFS there. Euro has been meh for a long time

We'll see....there were several runs in a row around D3 where the Euro had almost zero.

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Just now, weatherwiz said:

That early week wave could have a huge say in things. The airmass for much of next week is quite warm..perhaps if that early week wave comes weaker/flatter that will mute the air mass a bit...but it just seems like it might be another system with crappy airmass and then after the storm (end of week) we get the cold :axe: 

Hows that massive NC snowstorm look today.  What does Eric say?

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10 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You have run away and hidden from me at 38".

It’s only been the past 2 weeks, before that we were even as usual.  
Dave is 10” ahead of me up  in the ORH Co. elevated nether regions. 

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23 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Verbatim it’s not bad here, but I know what it could entail with that look. Just wish we could shake things up. It’s had that look for a couple of days. 

It might just be one of those years we don’t get another opportunity. Just incredibly frustrating winter. I just hope we can get one more storm chance before this disaster is over. Still haven’t plowed snow yet this winter. That would be a first for me if we go without one plowable  event. 

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5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Hows that massive NC snowstorm look today.  What does Eric say?

If we can't get snow they shouldn't be able to get it either (: 

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5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

If we can't get snow they shouldn't be able to get it either (: 

HRRR still very bullish. If that's correct that's a very nice snowstorm.

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2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

HRRR still very bullish. If that's correct that's a very nice snowstorm.

It's going to be super close...definitely probably not going to be a widespread event, but despite all the shifts and uncertainties one thing which has been pretty consistent is the area getting hit pretty good where the WSW is up. But looks like the system is going to end up a bit flatter which is going to hurt quite a bit. 

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3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Let’s discuss the Carolinas more.  
 

Doesn’t look good for them next week

 

79C3B926-CF88-4372-8DE3-BD94FD1896F7.jpeg

174 hr GFS? I would think you would post Ens if you were serious 

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1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

This is what I mean when I said the models look bad this morning. The stupid trough in the west keeps coming back.

And you were right , it’s just semantics and the knee jerk of maybe losing another “good “ look and the step down process we like to mute into “ok”. Hopefully the trough out west goes away 

 

edit thou I haven’t looked at anything , after being on the board and reading the posts from Mets , one really doesn’t have to 

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1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

What side of town are you on? I would think you have a general 4-6”.  

I'm near Hager Park/Meeting House pond......like 2 minutes from downtown. 

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17 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

And you were right , it’s just semantics and the knee jerk of maybe losing another “good “ look and the step down process we like to mute into “ok”. Hopefully the trough out west goes away 

 

edit thou I haven’t looked at anything , after being on the board and reading the posts from Mets , one really doesn’t have to 

Well its definitely a totally different pattern days 8 thru 14

download (4).png

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The Blizzzard of 13 came with a trough(-PNA) out west...big storms can happen with a trough out west.   But this year..nothing seems to be popping for us, so I can understand the angst.  

At this point who cares is my opinion.  If we don't get any more snow/or nothing of consequence, we can say this year beat out the Ratter of 11-12, and this year can be the worst Ratter in a generation or more for SNE.  

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2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

The Blizzzard of 13 came with a trough(-PNA) out west...big storms can happen with a trough out west.   But this year..nothing seems to be popping for us, so I can understand the angst.  

At this point who cares is my opinion.  If we don't get any more snow/or nothing of consequence, we can say this year beat out the Ratter of 11-12, and this year can be the worst Ratter in a generation or more for SNE.  

2013 had a neg NAO...tough to deal with a tough out west when the arctic and atlantic suck.

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

2013 had a neg NAO...tough to deal with a tough out west when the arctic and atlantic suck.

No I get it....this year sucks for sure...more working against us for sure.   I'm curious....was there a -NAO for the Feb 13 monster?  I think I remember there wasn't?  But I certainly could be mistaken on that? 

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