WinterWxLuvr

February Medium/Long Range Discussion

Recommended Posts

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

this isnt the greatest look for JB march 58 or 60==i guess not having a 50/50 high helps somewhat but its not looking good

 

image.thumb.png.7040db85e158e58833c8e1c4867bd313.png

When you can't even easily decide what the best way to fix that would be (progression or retrogression) you know how bad it is.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Burn it down. This place is complete disaster area. Let’s start fresh in November.....
 

 

 


 

....2024. I hear JB calling for a huge winter.  :yikes: 

  • Like 1
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Scraff said:

Burn it down. This place is complete disaster area. Let’s start fresh in November.....
 

 

 


 

....2024. I hear JB calling for a huge winter.  :yikes: 

The ground is nice and cool, just ask @WxWatcher007

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Honestly I don't think there is any predictability here... but simply odds favor crap because odds favor a crap winter 70% of the time ANY year.  Only 30% of our winters are avg to above avg snowfall...  

Also there are lots of moving parts to these analogs.  For instance...2009 isn't a great analog with the AO but it was a perfect match in the pacific. 

2009.png.96b9b055bf95d2a288c35ac81165bfeb.png

Possibly the low solar prevented what should have been a raging positive AO with that pac pattern...or maybe it was something else...who knows... either way 2009 wasnt really good (except compared to this year) but it was followed by 2010.  If we add that as an analog then suddenly we have 2 recent examples of a crap pacific like this leading to a historic snowfall winter next year.  But then we are manipulating the data a little to include 2009...or are we?  What is more important the high latitude pattern or the pacific?  I dont know.  But you can probably splice this up however you want to show whatever you want.  In the end I don't think one year can predict the next.  

I hope you're right...because this has been a bit of a rough run even by our standards. Barring any March miracles, one warning event in 4 years is rough even for us, I'd imagine...

(this is when you pull out data to show that this isn't unusual, lol). But being just 29, I guess most of my lifetime we have gotten a good punch every few years...and have not had a dry spell without a warning event (at BWI, that is...not including DCA's footer last year, lol) last longer than 4 years. So perhaps it seems worse because of that!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A couple 18z GEFS members look like they have something big at 240hrs

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, Amped said:

A couple 18z GEFS members look like they have something big at 240hrs

Op was a super tease. Finding ways to miss despite a pretty nice pattern.  Op gfs really develops a -epo. I’ll believe that when it actually happens. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Honestly I don't think there is any predictability here... but simply odds favor crap because odds favor a crap winter 70% of the time ANY year.  Only 30% of our winters are avg to above avg snowfall...  

Also there are lots of moving parts to these analogs.  For instance...2009 isn't a great analog with the AO but it was a perfect match in the pacific. 

2009.png.96b9b055bf95d2a288c35ac81165bfeb.png

Possibly the low solar prevented what should have been a raging positive AO with that pac pattern...or maybe it was something else...who knows... either way 2009 wasnt really good (except compared to this year) but it was followed by 2010.  If we add that as an analog then suddenly we have 2 recent examples of a crap pacific like this leading to a historic snowfall winter next year.  But then we are manipulating the data a little to include 2009...or are we?  What is more important the high latitude pattern or the pacific?  I dont know.  But you can probably splice this up however you want to show whatever you want.  In the end I don't think one year can predict the next.  

Both the high lat pattern and the Pac contribute to what could have been a massively spectacular winter.

But Washington DC is STILL gonna get annihilated later this month or in Morch, by a very deep snowstorm and by frigid temps!

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Both the high lat pattern and the Pac contribute to what could have been a massively spectacular winter.

But Washington DC is STILL gonna get annihilated later this month or in Morch, by a very deep snowstorm and by frigid temps!

What a bunchh of baloney. Man go pound sand or thorns in TX

 

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

 

 

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, CentralVaNATS said:

What a bunchh of baloney. Man go pound sand or thorns in TX

 

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

 

 

 

Do you feel better now?

  • Like 2
  • Confused 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, CentralVaNATS said:

What a bunchh of baloney. Man go pound sand or thorns in TX

 

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

 

 

 

Jebman is an MA legend.  Show some respect 

  • Like 6
  • Thanks 8

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

One thing to add a bit of hope for our snow future...Looking through our history of solar minimums and the winters around them, it appears there has only been one minimum on record (that is, back to 1883) where we didn't get above average snow either the winter of the minimum or the winter after...and that was 1954. (And even then we did get 19 inches in 55/56). All the rest had an above average winter within 1-2 years after the minimum. I think I like that trend B)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

No post by anyone here will ever match Jebman's epic Boston snow rant from 2015. A true classic.

He's been so relentlessly positive in the posts I have seen I have a hard time imagining him ranting.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

No post by anyone here will ever match Jebman's epic Boston snow rant from 2015. A true classic.

One of the greatest of all time. I read that post over and over and it was a true measure of a broken, yet hilarious man who cracked. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Stormpc said:

One of the greatest of all time. I read that post over and over and it was a true measure of a broken, yet hilarious man who cracked. 

lol it was extremely creative.

Guess I will have to dig up that thread now.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Noobs.

The whining and complaining is one thing but acting like a jerk is uncalled for. You learn a lot about people from how they behave when things aren’t going their way. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

He's been so relentlessly positive in the posts I have seen I have a hard time imagining him ranting.

It wasn't your typical rant. It was ROFL stuff.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

It wasn't your typical rant. It was ROFL stuff.

I would love to read it.  Any idea which month it was?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Just browsing through that thread. Those were the days.

If we’re not having fun one way or another during the winter, we’re doing it wrong.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.