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WinterWxLuvr

February Medium/Long Range Discussion

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Y'all know how this early March 'cold' period is gonna go, right?

 

Just save yourselves the misery and head on over to the Panic Room. Drinks are on me. The rest happens pretty quickly.

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Just now, C.A.P.E. said:

Y'all know how this early March 'cold' period is gonna go, right?

 

Just save yourselves the misery and head on over to the Panic Room. Drinks are on me. The rest happens pretty quickly.

If it doesn't snow then we want an early spring

 

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WB 12z EPS thru Day 15.  No changes.  Nada.
CED5B80E-4C7D-4B2F-9F5D-8A376A69261B.thumb.png.34c35925d850b433b1987f4abd11d26d.png
Not true at all...uptick in snow in southern and central va day 14 and 15

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For those holding out hope for late week, that stretched out vort max dropping down from Central Canada on Thursday is the feature to watch. It ultimately will act as the kicker, but if it digs a bit further west as it heads south, it can turn the flow a bit more ENE instead of due East. The runs that have been interesting, esp the 0z Euro and CMC, have this feature sharper and digging further west. It's a long shot for DC north any way you slice it, but there is a chance for southern parts of the region to get in on the northern fringe of the precip shield.

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Just now, ryanconway63 said:

A central NC jackpot 4 days out usually ends up being a central VA jackpot when all is said and done.....

This has never been more true than this winter. We have seen these advertised set ups end up working out great for N PA into NNE. In this case however, its hard to see how that happens. The flow is so progressive and flat, and the southern energy is on the weak side, with any significant development occurring offshore. Perfect set up for the MA to get screwed a different way lol.

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23 minutes ago, Ji said:
41 minutes ago, Weather Will said:
WB 12z EPS thru Day 15.  No changes.  Nada.
CED5B80E-4C7D-4B2F-9F5D-8A376A69261B.thumb.png.34c35925d850b433b1987f4abd11d26d.png

Not true at all...uptick in snow in southern and central va day 14 and 15

Isn’t most of that for the late week NC storm?

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13 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

This is why the ICON looks good at the surface, and what I mentioned in my post above. This is the feature to watch.

icon.thumb.png.b075df9a3859698a4b47594193a489b1.png

Yea.. it was a significant change at h5 even from it's own 12z run . I see flakes wayy up here :weenie:

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1 minute ago, losetoa6 said:

Yea.. it was a significant change at h5 even from it's own 12z run . I see flakes wayy up here :weenie:

Let's see what GFS does this time

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Just now, Weather Will said:

I just don’t see it for the DMV except SE VA.  Watch the EURO.  If it changes, I will start believing.

At this point the high bar is some light, insignificant snow from DC to Dover on the northern fringe. The max would be 1-3 inches down in NC to perhaps SE VA. This will not be much of a storm until offshore of the SE in all likelihood.

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