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WinterWxLuvr

February Medium/Long Range Discussion

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WB EPS at the end of run.  At least the SE ridge is breaking down.  NAO going to neutral perhaps.  Not sure about the Pacific but if you loop it to the end signs the AK vortex is weakening.  I have not given up on March yet.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom-2632000.png

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32 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

Man, this place is dead...as it should be. Doesnt really look like any threats to me thru the end of the month

Probably a good time to stop looking at the LR. The likelihood of seeing any meaningful 'favorable' pattern change at this point is probably pretty low. If it's going to snow, it will be some lucky/fluky deal that pops up in the medium range. And yeah, shorter wavelengths might help even with the same general crap pattern. Cant forget to mention that. lol.

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Just now, C.A.P.E. said:

Probably a good time to stop looking at the LR. The likelihood of seeing any meaningful 'favorable' pattern change at this point is probably pretty low. If it's going to snow, it will be some lucky/fluky deal that pops up in the medium range. And yeah, shorter wavelengths might help even with the same general crap pattern. Cant forget to mention that. lol.

There are a couple of EPS members that bring a shot of snow over us and even to our south.  So maybe something will pop up before the end of the month. Looking casually but not expecting anything at this point.

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1 hour ago, Weather Will said:

There are a couple of EPS members that bring a shot of snow over us and even to our south.  So maybe something will pop up before the end of the month. Looking casually but not expecting anything at this point.

Yeah I understand that.

That panel you posted above is pretty ugly lol. Can't get much worse looking up top than that. Maybe going forward the look will improve, but the odds are not good. This pattern has been locked in. Persistence FTL.

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1 hour ago, jaydreb said:

DCA legitimately might not make 1” for the season.  

yea, this winter is a dud.  still some time for a snowfall, but it's not a good look when we've had rainer after rainer through our prime climo.  what can ya do.

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Just now, MD Snow said:

Lock it up. 

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_43.png

Yes you never know what can happen in Feb.  hey it’s under 300 hr.  I got nothing 

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Just now, MD Snow said:

Lock it up. 

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_43.png

Has a closed 500 mb low right in the middle of a ridge.

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Just now, CentralVaNATS said:

Dont you know there is a separate thread for Digital Snow posts??? But yea lock it up for a WIN

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk
 

It's not a digital snowfall map. 

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I’m resigning myself to the fact that the PV is comfortable in the Arctic until something unleashes it. It’s so frustrating to have all of this rain all week and then cold and dry by Friday. I’d rather have cold and dry than warm and wet.  Maybe we can get a surprise snow like the South had last week.  

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Just now, Ji said:

@crankywxguy who hates everything actually likes this window

How does Bob Ryan feel about it?  “Still no sign..no sign of our first inch of snow so the golden snow shovel is still up for grabs”...

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1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

12z EPS has about 8 members with snow during the 20-21 period, few flush, few north, few south. 

LOL. Any other year and we'd laugh at that. This year? I say "wow"! That's almost a 1 and 5 chance. 

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2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Who knows...get back to me if it's still there on Friday, lol (and even then I'll only bat half of an eye...)

Because you wont be checking every run looking for signs of life?  Cmon now.  Everyone here is checking every day every run even if they don’t post.  It’s what we do. 

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2 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Because you wont be checking every run looking for signs of life?  Cmon now.  Everyone here is checking every day every run even if they don’t post.  It’s what we do. 

Well, I don't think it's worth it now until at LEAST 7 days out...am interested in why Cranky likes that period of time though.

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3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Well, I don't think it's worth it now until at LEAST 7 days out...am interested in why Cranky likes that period of time though.

We’ll get one before April.  Mark my words we will get something.  

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3 hours ago, Weather Will said:

WB EPS at the end of run.  At least the SE ridge is breaking down.  NAO going to neutral perhaps.  Not sure about the Pacific but if you loop it to the end signs the AK vortex is weakening.  I have not given up on March yet.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom-2632000.png

Whew!  That oughtta save us from 90s in March at least!!

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26 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Well, I don't think it's worth it now until at LEAST 7 days out...am interested in why Cranky likes that period of time though.

Because he needs to keep his snow weenie followers believing in something. These dudes are all the same.

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4 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Because he needs to keep his snow weenie followers believing in something. These dudes are all the same.

Nah I think he's kinda the opposite...he actually doesn't do weather hype (he even says it on the top of his Twitter page, lol) I follow him on Twitter--he's pretty straightforward, imo

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4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Nah I think he's kinda the opposite...he actually doesn't do weather hype (he even says it on the top of his Twitter page, lol) I follow him on Twitter--he's pretty straightforward, imo

A lot of times with cranky it seems to me like he’s almost rooting against snow. He calls out people on Twitter all the time for hyping stuff up they shouldn’t really be. A pessimist who really knows his stuff showing optimism for a timeframe to me is good

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1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said:

This period just screams potential. What a look.

1582264800-LT1aaodAR6k.png

Yes potential for early grass cutting. Brutal. 

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