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WinterWxLuvr

February Medium/Long Range Discussion

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36 minutes ago, Sevenstripebass said:

Whoa whoa whoa whoa..... @87stormsdude, look at what you’re saying. You are taking 2 years of little snow and saying it’s global warming. And you say that’s why you don’t argue with people who think differently... after saying the pst 2 years seals a climate shift to less snow.... I’m sorry but that’s ridiculous. 
 

What do you think 2 years of human time is in earth time? I’d say it is 1/1,000,000th of a blink of an eye, maybe less. I lost my old username but had to make another because of how depressing this is to read this year. I’ve been following along every thread since 2012. The references to climate change, global warming, the works all over not much snow is enough to make me sick to my stomach. This area is so prone to feast or famine and has been for forever. A user earlier today was upset over a run and is blaming climate change for his lost snow. Wouldn’t all this climate change crap go to banter? Bob chill has it right. Reporting stations are in UHIs all over the country and population expansion accounts for a large chunk of temp rises. 

news flash: since the last ice age, climate has def been changing, sea levels have been rising. Climate change did not take away your digital snow. Grab your nearest Kleenex box instead of whining about climate change for your no snow. 

Many people forget, down here in Richmond, we received 13 inches from a snowstorm December 10,2018...( just last winter). This region is known for its boom or bust snowfalls. It has been and always will be.

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i was about to pull the plug on winter but this is the best EPS run in a long time...actually shows maybe a softening of AO and gets rid of the SE ridge

 

of course its all in the D11-15 where nothing ever escapes that window

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7 minutes ago, Ji said:

i was about to pull the plug on winter but this is the best EPS run in a long time...actually shows maybe a softening of AO and gets rid of the SE ridge

 

of course its all in the D11-15 where nothing ever escapes that window

Not so much of a softening of the AO as much as more of a displacement southward of the PV towards Hudson Bay. That is one way I mentioned a while ago that I can see suppressing the flow in the east somewhat.

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23 minutes ago, Ji said:

i was about to pull the plug on winter but this is the best EPS run in a long time...actually shows maybe a softening of AO and gets rid of the SE ridge

 

of course its all in the D11-15 where nothing ever escapes that window

That's why I'm not gonna close the blinds on the winter until we get past PD weekend...I guess I'm (somewhat foolishly) still holding out hope for that time period, lol

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31 minutes ago, Siberian-Snowcover-Myth said:

Many people forget, down here in Richmond, we received 13 inches from a snowstorm December 10,2018...( just last winter). This region is known for its boom or bust snowfalls. It has been and always will be.

Yeah that storm kinda broke our hearts up here...lol

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Not so much of a softening of the AO as much as more of a displacement southward of the PV towards Hudson Bay. That is one way I mentioned a while ago that I can see suppressing the flow in the east somewhat.
9838cc9d200ac4e397641ce3f47dcbc0.jpg
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2 hours ago, Sevenstripebass said:

Whoa whoa whoa whoa..... @87stormsdude, look at what you’re saying. You are taking 2 years of little snow and saying it’s global warming. And you say that’s why you don’t argue with people who think differently... after saying the pst 2 years seals a climate shift to less snow.... I’m sorry but that’s ridiculous. 
 

What do you think 2 years of human time is in earth time? I’d say it is 1/1,000,000th of a blink of an eye, maybe less. I lost my old username but had to make another because of how depressing this is to read this year. I’ve been following along every thread since 2012. The references to climate change, global warming, the works all over not much snow is enough to make me sick to my stomach. This area is so prone to feast or famine and has been for forever. A user earlier today was upset over a run and is blaming climate change for his lost snow. Wouldn’t all this climate change crap go to banter? Bob chill has it right. Reporting stations are in UHIs all over the country and population expansion accounts for a large chunk of temp rises. 

news flash: since the last ice age, climate has def been changing, sea levels have been rising. Climate change did not take away your digital snow. Grab your nearest Kleenex box instead of whining about climate change for your no snow. 

Oceanic heat content, 850 mb temperatures and 500 mb temperatures aren't affected by UHI.  They've been rising in tandem with surface observations.  The Arctic is unaffected by UHI and their temps have been skyrocketing.  

Although, since UHI and population expansion are also 'man-made', even your Heartland Institute talking points acknowledge anthropogenic climate change.

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50 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

What a post 

Yes we know you have appointed yourself the Big Dog here with every 8 paragraph post. Over the last almost 20 years we’ve had a number claim stake for a few years 

Models are a fraud. They waste taxpayers money trying to solve a riddle they cant

No money should be spend on anything past 3 days maybe 5. The reason-models can’t do it. Maybe 10% of the time they stick with a hit and it happens. Otherwise it’s show all sorts of outcomes  in the 5-15 day and at 4 per days that’s 20-60 outcomes. Guess what, one will be right so present that to Feds as your success come Federsl funding renewal time.

My enjoyment comes from making observations doing the event and following things from 3 days in. I derive no satisfaction from endlessly changing example of possible weather, I want to forecast as to most probable outcome. Models can’t do that and have not tightened things up in last 20 years do let’s tryanother route.

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2 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

My enjoyment comes from making observations doing the event and following things from 3 days in. I derive no satisfaction from endlessly changing example of possible weather, I want to forecast as to most probable outcome. Models can’t do that and have not tightened things up in last 20 years do let’s tryanother route.

Then why are you in the medium/long range discussion thread?

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5 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Yes we know you have appointed yourself the Big Dog here with every 8 paragraph post. Over the last almost 20 years we’ve had a number claim stake for a few years 

Models are a fraud. They waste taxpayers money trying to solve a riddle they cant

No money should be spend on anything past 3 days maybe 5. The reason-models can’t do it. Maybe 10% of the time they stick with a hit and it happens. Otherwise it’s show all sorts of outcomes  in the 5-15 day and at 4 per days that’s 20-60 outcomes. Guess what, one will be right so present that to Feds as your success come Federsl funding renewal time.

My enjoyment comes from making observations doing the event and following things from 3 days in. I derive no satisfaction from endlessly changing example of possible weather, I want to forecast as to most probable outcome. Models can’t do that and have not tightened things up in last 20 years do let’s tryanother route.

Models aren’t a fraud. We’ve known for a week that there was going to be a storm tomorrow and Friday. Doubt we could accurately know that without them.

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48 minutes ago, Ji said:
1 hour ago, Yeoman said:
Climo maps are back?

Climo means 20 to 25 inches for us per year

Right, so 3-4 inches within a 15 day window during our snowiest month.. ie, climo

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It's an op run but the 18z gfs shows something similar to what the eps was showing with a displacement of the pv south/hudson bay. Actually has legit cold here starting around Sunday, Feb 16. Interesting to see if the GEFS starts to hint at this moving over the next couple of days. 

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12 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

My enjoyment comes from making observations doing the event and following things from 3 days in. 

Seems your enjoyment is mostly complaining about how everyone else analyzes weather. No one is stopping you from talking about it however you want. So instead of repeatedly whining about how everyone else does things why don’t you simply lead by example...discuss the long range however you want.  No one is stopping you.  But 90% of your posts in here are just complaints  

2.  If you only want to discuss things inside 3 days you are in the wrong thread.  

 

 

 

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30 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Yes we know you have appointed yourself the Big Dog here with every 8 paragraph post. Over the last almost 20 years we’ve had a number claim stake for a few years 

Models are a fraud. They waste taxpayers money trying to solve a riddle they cant

No money should be spend on anything past 3 days maybe 5. The reason-models can’t do it. Maybe 10% of the time they stick with a hit and it happens. Otherwise it’s show all sorts of outcomes  in the 5-15 day and at 4 per days that’s 20-60 outcomes. Guess what, one will be right so present that to Feds as your success come Federsl funding renewal time.

My enjoyment comes from making observations doing the event and following things from 3 days in. I derive no satisfaction from endlessly changing example of possible weather, I want to forecast as to most probable outcome. Models can’t do that and have not tightened things up in last 20 years do let’s tryanother route.

I think you’re a fraud. You’re literally expecting a computer to model a chaotic global atmosphere perfectly. Can you just stop, Jesus. If you don’t want to discuss long range weather and the models, then don’t come on the forum. Some of the best snowstorms were sniffed out more than 5 days out. 

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3 hours ago, Siberian-Snowcover-Myth said:

Many people forget, down here in Richmond, we received 13 inches from a snowstorm December 10,2018...( just last winter). This region is known for its boom or bust snowfalls. It has been and always will be.

I don’t know why I visit here to read this everyday. Especially in Richmond.  Maybe we’ll pull an April 1915...

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40 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

I think you’re a fraud. You’re literally expecting a computer to model a chaotic global atmosphere perfectly. Can you just stop, Jesus. If you don’t want to discuss long range weather and the models, then don’t come on the forum. Some of the best snowstorms were sniffed out more than 5 days out. 

Don't bother. He only comes by to express his angst in the face of a letdown and/or bust. No mention of Feb 2010, Jan 2011, Feb 14th 2014, Jan 2016, or any other storm that was nailed a week+ in advance. Jan 2016 was 10 days out. Models are amazing and energy traders make mass fortunes using long range guidance. If people are willing to bet 10s or 100s of millions of dollars on long range weather models then it's unquestionable what kind of value they have. 

Every rational person here knows that our long range discussion is grounded in the fact that we have nothing else to talk about because it currently sucks. Progressive storms can't be trusted outside of 72 hours but there is no harm in tracking because it's fun. Lastly, long range disco participation is compeltely optional. If you dont believe in it then don't participate... at all. Its not that complicated here 

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Don't bother. He only comes by to express his angst in the face of a letdown and/or bust. No mention of Feb 2010, Jan 2011, Feb 14th 2014, Jan 2016, or any other storm that was nailed a week+ in advance. Jan 2016 was 10 days out. Models are amazing and energy traders make mass fortunes using long range guidance. If people are willing to bet 10s or 100s of millions of dollars on long range weather models then it's unquestionable what kind of value they have. 
Every rational person here knows that our long range discussion is grounded in the fact that we have nothing else to talk about because it currently sucks. Progressive storms can't be trusted outside of 72 hours but there is no harm in tracking because it's fun. Lastly, long range disco participation is compeltely optional. If you dont believe in it then don't participate... at all. Its not that complicated here 

Why even come here if you reject science? The models are the sum of years of research and experimentation. I don’t get it.

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