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WinterWxLuvr

February Medium/Long Range Discussion

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1 minute ago, jewell2188 said:

If it were March 31 today where would this winter rank in terms of lack of snowfall?!?

For my location, worst since 1973..but there is a good chance I will eek out a few more inches up here and pass 2002.  That would still make it the worst winter by far in the 14 years I've been up here.  

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Just can't get past the "might go poof" range dammit. I don't consider these types of disasters to be rug pulls though. Need to survive 72hrs out for that. At least this winter has been letting us off the hook early instead of kicking us in the kidneys and punching us in the throat. Still feels the same tho... I'll be back next time something looks reasonable. Whenever that is. 

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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Just can't get past the "might go poof" range dammit. I don't consider these types of disasters to be rug pulls though. Need to survive 72hrs out for that. At least this winter has been letting us off the hook early instead of kicking us in the kidneys and punching us in the throat. Still feels the same tho... I'll be back next time something looks reasonable. Whenever that is. 

probably when the AO isnt +5 

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

probably when the AO isnt +5 

I'm rooting for a +5 AO at the same time the mjo is +4sd in P6 just to see what happens... at the beach

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28 minutes ago, jewell2188 said:

If it were March 31 today where would this winter rank in terms of lack of snowfall?!?

Pssst, there's a whole thread on that. Check out the historic futility thread.

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3 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Too soon man too soon

Oops. Deleting... posted on a whim with no intention of poking fun at a disaster. I'm not that guy and apologize

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27 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm rooting for a +5 AO at the same time the mjo is +4sd in P6 just to see what happens... at the beach

I'll tell you what happens...in Jackson Hole...

Still not too late...couple flights left to Idaho Falls....

And keep in mind these are 10-1 ratios...JH will probably be closer to 15-1 in town and 20-1 on the mountain...if not higher than that.   

Jackson.thumb.png.92eced3cf35f7e57ce168917d7356899.png

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Yes I am going to be that guy. NAM doesn't look too hateful leading into Saturday night. But enough of Fantasy and back to reality. GFS still looks pretty much dead in the water.

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18 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Yes I am going to be that guy. NAM doesn't look too hateful leading into Saturday night. But enough of Fantasy and back to reality. GFS still looks pretty much dead in the water.

At least we get a couple of seasonally chilly days, before we ramp back up to our next torch period. Gotta take what you can get in a historically abysmal winter.

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8 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

At least we get a couple of seasonally chilly days, before we ramp back up to our next torch period. Gotta take what you can get in a historically abysmal winter.

And we thought last Winter was bad

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one thing i've noticed this season as a very novice hobbyist is that the upper level pattern has not been ideal.  we're in need of a good vort pass with the 540 line under us.  i know that's not a requirement especially for an overrunning situation, but the 500 maps just have not had that classic or even decent look which makes sense given the surface temps have also been mostly above normal.

when you sit and think about the pattern we've had for the last 2 years and leading into this winter it really isn't that surprising that we've been pretty much skunked.  this past summer was loaded with 90+ days, so it makes sense that it'll take some time to get back to square one.  on the bright side, this type of a dud winter should increase the chance of next winter not being quite as lame, but mother nature will decide that, not the euro.

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1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

I'll tell you what happens...in Jackson Hole...

Still not too late...couple flights left to Idaho Falls....

And keep in mind these are 10-1 ratios...JH will probably be closer to 15-1 in town and 20-1 on the mountain...if not higher than that.   

Jackson.thumb.png.92eced3cf35f7e57ce168917d7356899.png

324'' for the year so far most ever in JAN 

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4 minutes ago, 87storms said:

one thing i've noticed this season as a very novice hobbyist is that the upper level pattern has not been ideal.  we're in need of a good vort pass with the 540 line under us.  i know that's not a requirement especially for an overrunning situation, but the 500 maps just not have had that classic or even decent look which makes sense given the surface temps have also been mostly above normal.

when you sit and think about the pattern we've had for the last 2 years and leading into this winter it really isn't that surprising that we've been pretty much skunked.  this past summer was loaded with 90+ days, so it makes sense that it'll take some time to get back to square one.  on the bright side, this type of a dud winter should increase the chance of next winter not being quite as lame, but mother nature will decide that, not the euro.

I don't believe summers are indicative of winters. Some of the hottest summers on record are 1995/2002/1978. There's really not much of a correlation outside of DC. DC has been consistently running warmer for a decade mostly due to UHI and terrible reporting station location. Doesn't explain all of it though... it's consistently running warmer because the globe is consistently running warmer. Can't ever deny that until data shows otherwise (unlikely before I'm dead without a massive volcano or meteor strike. I could do without either. lol)

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This winter reminds me a lot of 1996-1997. I mentioned that winter earlier this year. Never will forget all that cold dumping into the Rockies and it would not move East. The gfs does that very thing at about 192 hours. 

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1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

I don't believe summers are indicative of winters. Some of the hottest summers on record are 1995/2002/1978. There's really not much of a correlation outside of DC. DC has been consistently running warmer for a decade mostly due to UHI and terrible reporting station location. Doesn't explain all of it though... it's consistently running warmer because the globe is consistently running warmer. Can't ever deny that until data shows otherwise (unlikely before I'm dead without a massive volcano or meteor strike. I could do without either. lol)

true, but the "consistently running warmer" part is where i'm mostly getting at.  the last 2 years have been on average warmer and it only takes a few degrees to ruin any real snow chances here since we're already a fringe state. however, i agree that the pattern can flip on a dime and it's difficult to really draw that correlation. long story short, might be a mix of both. and yea, i've mostly giving up on having global warming conversations with the right. i'll trust the people who research this topic for a living lol.

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6 hours ago, MD Snow said:

Yup. Given this winter, it's a real long shot. But it's our only shot at this point. Much is stacked against us. There's still a chance and as long as there's a chance, i'll stay interested.  6z GEFS (sucks) seems to be getting us on the right side toward the end of it's run. GEPS seems to get the boundary south of us for a period between Feb 14-18. 

And like that POOF on the boundary pushing thru lol.

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30 minutes ago, 87storms said:

true, but the "consistently running warmer" part is where i'm mostly getting at.  the last 2 years have been on average warmer and it only takes a few degrees to ruin any real snow chances here since we're already a fringe state. however, i agree that the pattern can flip on a dime and it's difficult to really draw that correlation. long story short, might be a mix of both. and yea, i've mostly giving up on having global warming conversations with the right. i'll trust the people who research this topic for a living lol.

Whoa whoa whoa whoa..... @87stormsdude, look at what you’re saying. You are taking 2 years of little snow and saying it’s global warming. And you say that’s why you don’t argue with people who think differently... after saying the pst 2 years seals a climate shift to less snow.... I’m sorry but that’s ridiculous. 
 

What do you think 2 years of human time is in earth time? I’d say it is 1/1,000,000th of a blink of an eye, maybe less. I lost my old username but had to make another because of how depressing this is to read this year. I’ve been following along every thread since 2012. The references to climate change, global warming, the works all over not much snow is enough to make me sick to my stomach. This area is so prone to feast or famine and has been for forever. A user earlier today was upset over a run and is blaming climate change for his lost snow. Wouldn’t all this climate change crap go to banter? Bob chill has it right. Reporting stations are in UHIs all over the country and population expansion accounts for a large chunk of temp rises. 

news flash: since the last ice age, climate has def been changing, sea levels have been rising. Climate change did not take away your digital snow. Grab your nearest Kleenex box instead of whining about climate change for your no snow. 

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2 hours ago, Sevenstripebass said:

Whoa whoa whoa whoa..... @87stormsdude, look at what you’re saying. You are taking 2 years of little snow and saying it’s global warming. And you say that’s why you don’t argue with people who think differently... after saying the pst 2 years seals a climate shift to less snow.... I’m sorry but that’s ridiculous. 
 

What do you think 2 years of human time is in earth time? I’d say it is 1/1,000,000th of a blink of an eye, maybe less. I lost my old username but had to make another because of how depressing this is to read this year. I’ve been following along every thread since 2012. The references to climate change, global warming, the works all over not much snow is enough to make me sick to my stomach. This area is so prone to feast or famine and has been for forever. A user earlier today was upset over a run and is blaming climate change for his lost snow. Wouldn’t all this climate change crap go to banter? Bob chill has it right. Reporting stations are in UHIs all over the country and population expansion accounts for a large chunk of temp rises. 

news flash: since the last ice age, climate has def been changing, sea levels have been rising. Climate change did not take away your digital snow. Grab your nearest Kleenex box instead of whining about climate change for your no snow. 

the other option is to act like we have only one planet to live on, but it sounds like you'd rather just omit the impacts from the industrial revolution on the atmospheric since, you know, it's such a small fraction of earth time.  before commenting on this topic, at least do some research on carbon footprints, etc.  also, no kleenex needed...i actually don't even like the cold (though i do love snow, go figure).  i do, however, have more faith in the people who study this topic for a living and do have concerns on what the longterm impacts of global warming could be.  wish more people would at least entertain the idea that it matters.

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1 hour ago, 87storms said:

true, but the "consistently running warmer" part is where i'm mostly getting at.  the last 2 years have been on average warmer and it only takes a few degrees to ruin any real snow chances here since we're already a fringe state. however, i agree that the pattern can flip on a dime and it's difficult to really draw that correlation. long story short, might be a mix of both. and yea, i've mostly giving up on having global warming conversations with the right. i'll trust the people who research this topic for a living lol.

Fewer sun spots will save us

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1 hour ago, 87storms said:

true, but the "consistently running warmer" part is where i'm mostly getting at.  the last 2 years have been on average warmer and it only takes a few degrees to ruin any real snow chances here since we're already a fringe state. however, i agree that the pattern can flip on a dime and it's difficult to really draw that correlation. long story short, might be a mix of both. and yea, i've mostly giving up on having global warming conversations with the right. i'll trust the people who research this topic for a living lol.

Lol

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