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February 4th-7th Winter Storm Potential


Thundersnow12
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4 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

I don't think it's just me 

Yep we're running about 60% below normal with nothing looking good on the horizon.  Ended up with a half inch of frozen crap and another half inch of frosting on top for this "storm" lol.  Running just about 10 inches on the season and we average about 29.  Need a late season big dog to snap the rubber band.

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15 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

 The snow swath was very underwhelming, but that was the 1st measurable snowfall of the season and Oklahoma City lol it's been bad here but I would not call it bottom shelf bad.  Snowfall is running not far from average here, and is way below average just to our South.  With these HORRIBLE models I refuse to say anything to jinx it, but you do the math, if some of the snow this week pans out, we could actually be in positive snow departure territory.

It's definitely been really bad in some aspects. I love brutal cold, respectable snowpacks, and healthy amounts of lake ice. Those have been...lacking this winter. Definitely have been saved by the Veterans Day storm and January 18th. I'll take two warning criteria events in this winter for sure. February has been our month for the last two decades, so I still have some hope for something good coming up.

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11 hours ago, Snowstorms said:

EC's warning system is a joke lol. 

Dry air basically shredded last night's storm. I was a bit concerned about it but didn't think it would limit snow totals to <2". 

Tonight's event looks a bit disorganized as per radar right now but it'll likely pick up later as the storm deepens. Dry air won't be an issue tonight. I think we can squeeze in 5cm tonight if we can tap into some of that moisture.  

Almost every single model had 4-8" falling during the commutes on Thursday into Friday. The special weather statement made sense IMO, it just didn't pan out. Models blew this one. Even ensemble prediction had a fairly high probability of 10+ cm.

EC alerts based on vulnerability, not just amounts. 5-10 cm during rush hour in a major city has higher impacts than 15 cm on a weekend. The point is to alert people so that they can alter their behaviour (e.g. work from home on that day). Sometimes it doesn't pan out. I'm really frustrated with how the storm turned out also. I sure wasn't expecting barely 3" from the two waves.

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12 minutes ago, snowcaine said:

Almost every single model had 4-8" falling during the commutes on Thursday into Friday. The special weather statement made sense IMO, it just didn't pan out. Models blew this one. Even ensemble prediction had a fairly high probability of 10+ cm.

EC alerts based on vulnerability, not just amounts. 5-10 cm during rush hour in a major city has higher impacts than 15 cm on a weekend. The point is to alert people so that they can alter their behaviour (e.g. work from home on that day). Sometimes it doesn't pan out. I'm really frustrated with how the storm turned out also. I sure wasn't expecting barely 3" from the two waves.

Fair point. 

But special weather statements aren't as "widely distributed" to the general public as watches or warnings are. In the past EC has been canned for not issuing warnings when warnings were warranted or issuing warnings to late. I agree, most models had 10-15cm for us but it is what it is. You win some you lose some. 

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Snowing hard here in the southern thumb in the Mitt, northern St Clair county, have between 5”-6” on the ground now. Actually looks like a mid winter morning out there for a change. Going to have to plow the driveway for only the 3rd time all winter, once in Nov, once in Jan and now today. We have to run into town tonight, Port Huron, there should be more snow over that way if this wind direction keeps up for a while. 

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1 hour ago, Snowstorms said:

Fair point. 

But special weather statements aren't as "widely distributed" to the general public as watches or warnings are. In the past EC has been canned for not issuing warnings when warnings were warranted or issuing warnings to late. I agree, most models had 10-15cm for us but it is what it is. You win some you lose some. 

Looks like we’ll get an extra inch or so this morning from this surprise band that is moving through the GTA. 

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After the 2.0" of sugar we ended up with 1.3" of deformation fluff. So event total in my backyard was 3.3" of snow on 0.26" water. Still enough for the 3rd largest snow event of the year, but quite a ways away from number 1 & 2. Sun has come out and it's compacting in spots but it's nice to see all the white return.

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Bad wreck on I-94 south of Michigan City. One of several crashes. Lake effect occurring. Special Weather Statement issued but seems like this would be a good candidate for a Snow Squall Warning considering there are no advisories in effect? 

Snow Squall Warnings have a wind criteria as well so this morning's situation didn't really fit that. The lake effect the past few days had pretty low predictability. Probably in an ideal world a WWA would have been issued in advance but having been on the shift last night I can say there wasn't enough confidence for that. And then once it's happening, there's not much that can be done. We did issue a SPS and hit it in a graphical nowcast.

 

 

 

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9 hours ago, sbnwx85 said:

Bad wreck on I-94 south of Michigan City. One of several crashes. Lake effect occurring. Special Weather Statement issued but seems like this would be a good candidate for a Snow Squall Warning considering there are no advisories in effect? 

Or if the weather is bad people should drive more carefully?

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