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HoarfrostHubb

January 25-26 Threat

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Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

Dryslot approved solution.

Eh, It wasn't that great, Pretty big bump north @H5 though, But its a weaker solution as well, Occluded garbage but just another solution at a long lead, I will pay more attention tomorrow or less at that point.

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3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

The ULL is a bit of a mess. Another solution.

Pretty much...this just adds another potential solution to the cards instead of zeroing in on any particular solution...which is still find given the range we're at. 

The majority of the diversion within the forecast models happen around Thursday or so and it's with how the trough/ridge evolve. Once this aspect is sampled and observed I think we should have a pretty clear idea of what to expect with the only uncertainties surrounding areas which are borderline. 

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Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Can’t win them all... or any of them this winter... really. It’s too bad there are so many mitigating factors for SNE. Even an average winter look may produce, probably going to be a nice storm for someone 

The seasonal shaft just won’t subside.

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1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I don't think it is so bad...  not a blockbuster, but for this season, 4-8" can seem like a decent storm

For hinterlands is a nice solution.

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The progression between 108-120 is extremely odd regarding the ULL...very jumpy. So either a resolution type thing or just major uncertainty regarding where the closed circulation will actually be present...that blimp has major ramifications on the sfc product 

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Just now, dryslot said:

It all starts with a bad air mass that gets worse for some.

Would be a nice front end thumper if the antecedent was there.

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Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

Would be a nice front end thumper if the antecedent was there.

Its a week late in that regard.

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Still manages about 6" here...

It just shows there is a lot more upside for this if its spits out 6"+ in a weaker scenario.

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5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Still manages about 6" here...

You’re actually in the jackpot area this run.

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The euro has tiny pockets of surface-based CAPE move across the region!!! not surprised given those lapse rates...wish Ryan's page had elevated CAPE but I would think we could be dealing with some weak elevated CAPE...could see elevated convection (especially in the "warm sector"). 

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It sounds like this was either a step towards a POS system or just a burp in the broader trend to move the ULL further S&E, lending more weight to more substantial solutions. 
 

Favored area remains the eastern slopes of the interior. 

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23 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

The seasonal shaft just won’t subside.

Yup.....can't get anything to stay together and congeal this season.   It (the season) is starting to show it's true colors now.  This will most likely be another flop for most.  Too much to have to go right in a year that can't seem to make "a Thing" go right.  

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1 hour ago, Whineminster said:

I think peeps are wishcasting this into something it's not....probably going to be some occluded piece of crap spitting graupel under dreary skies. 

Nah .. 

Seems like most credible contributors in here have it pretty well baked in that this is a piece of crap with potential.  Identifying trends that may lend to more vs less impact is part and parcel in deterministic forecasting, too - so that shouldn't be held against anyone imho.  

That said, it may also reflect more on one's own resenting of the winter thus far - ha - so they snark on others for what it is they're really doing.. 

But, I get it - some may... Look, no one should really be holding a pistol to the head of any model until this thing gets better sampling.  The Euro is showing continuity issues ...that's a red flag.. If it was handling/seeing the initialization properly it probably wouldn't be deviating from a consistency as much as it has. 

Put it this way...what if drilled a hole in the ocean to the bed rock SE of the Cape - same crap. 

 

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3 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

meh, moving on to track coronavirus

and with this winter, add a side of EEE in March and who knows how many ticks....We need some Alaska cold

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2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Oh well, that was supposed to animate, but this site always screws up my animated gifs these days and they don't work.

Click on it

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