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Mid to Long Range Threats

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1 minute ago, forkyfork said:

is there anything worse than a day 10 kuchera map

Yeh, the one that still has 0 for you on it. 

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26 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

This is false

Euro use to be good 5 days out before the upgrade. 

It's still good

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11 minutes ago, PB-99 said:

Yeh, the one that still has 0 for you on it. 

it's a bullshit method

 

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2 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

it's a bullshit method

 

 

Great , so there will be 2 feet in Killington  and not 3.

 

It`s a NNE pattern was the point. 

 

1581595200-HcJOELfZuQc.png

 

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We are going into a severely positive AO and NAO pattern along with a PNA tank and a SE ridge, I don’t believe any model showing a coastal snowstorm in the midst of such an anomalously horrible pattern. A -EPO/-WPO isn’t going to help you, the CMC and GFS are trash

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47 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

This is false

Euro use to be good 5 days out before the upgrade. 

OP runs beyond 120 hrs are never really great with storm details. That’s why the EPS means are often used 126 to 240. But even then, they mostly show skill with things like AN or BN temperatures and the 500mb pattern. A  Euro advantage is the great ensemble system that often shows when a long range OP run is an outlier among its ensembles. That why a super amped OP solution beyond 120hrs often doesn’t match the EPS mean. The GFS really doesn’t have this relationship with its ensembles. So they can both often turn out to be incorrect.

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3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

We are going into a severely positive AO and NAO pattern along with a PNA tank and a SE ridge, I don’t believe any model showing a coastal snowstorm in the midst of such an anomalously horrible pattern. A -EPO/-WPO isn’t going to help you 

 

SE ridge backs down a little after day 12.

But the -EPO is still displaced W so the trough axis end up over the UMW. 

 

 

 

1581876000-1TU519s10nA.png

 

New England  could turn cold here, but chances are that ends up warmer in the M/A. 

 

1581919200-PFTBl4mlad8.png

 

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21 minutes ago, PB-99 said:

 

Great , so there will be 2 feet in Killington  and not 3.

 

It`s a NNE pattern was the point. 

 

1581595200-HcJOELfZuQc.png

 

Honestly the models have been showing the snow line pushing down to CNE for weeks now and that hasn't even been happening. This is just a pathetic winter almost everywhere until we see otherwise

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1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

Eps mean still hinting at something for Saturday night. Snow mean around 1-2 for the area.

The Sunday event I think is more likely to be too progressive and miss south than anything.  

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4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The Sunday event I think is more likely to be too progressive and miss south than anything.  

Definitely a possibility if it remains weak and Thursday’s cutter is strong. 

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1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

Definitely a possibility if it remains weak and Thursday’s cutter is strong. 

The cutter was flatter on the 12Z Euro than 0Z and yet the second storm was way worse so I'm not sure how much one impacts the other

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Just now, Allsnow said:

Definitely a possibility if it remains weak and Thursday’s cutter is strong. 

This winter has found inventive ways not to snow 

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5 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

This winter has found inventive ways not to snow 

The system crashing into the Pac NW won’t pump the ridge in the Rockies enough.  My hunch is that will be a PHL-DCA snow event if it happens 

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17 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Honestly the models have been showing the snow line pushing down to CNE for weeks now and that hasn't even been happening. This is just a pathetic winter almost everywhere until we see otherwise

 

Killington has 127 inches of snow so far this year. They average 250 inches a year and they are probably on their way to N with the pattern in front of them. 

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10 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

The cutter was flatter on the 12Z Euro than 0Z and yet the second storm was way worse so I'm not sure how much one impacts the other

The energy for the weekend was weaker. We need the cutter to set the stage with a better airmass. 

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15 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The system crashing into the Pac NW won’t pump the ridge in the Rockies enough.  My hunch is that will be a PHL-DCA snow event if it happens 

Yep, everytime a +PNA ridge tries to form the PAC jet crashes into it and knocks it right down 

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I would not expect any big changes-this god awful pattern has been locked in place and too much to fix overall.... Models have some headfakes, but I'm not buying into any of it. 

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1 minute ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

I keep hearing the pacific jet keeps crashing the +PNA

what does this mean exactly? how long has I been this way? what type of pattern change would need to happen for it to stop?

It keeps killing the pna ridge from amplifying into western Canada. So it’s harder for the storms to turn up the coast. But overall the pacific has been a hot mess for two years now. 

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30 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Yep, everytime a +PNA ridge tries to form the PAC jet crashes into it and knocks it right down 

This needs to be pinned. Second winter in a row of this crap. Cue the 'Oh but the second half of March looks good for a pattern change' aka more cold rain and white rain for the metro in March and April who wants that.

 

Summer and swimsuits at this point, let's just get it over with!

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4 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

It keeps killing the pna ridge from amplifying into western Canada. So it’s harder for the storms to turn up the coast. But overall the pacific has been a hot mess for two years now. 

what's causing it though? when was the last time it happened?

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1 minute ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

what's causing it though? when was the last time it happened?

Raging Pacific jet stream, or so I've been told, and this happened last year as well until March when the pattern finally shifted

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8 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

cutters with brief cold shots behind them 

ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_11.png

No surprise since the ridge axis has been stuck north of Hawaii for 2 winters now. The million dollar question is how much longer this most recent stuck weather pattern lasts.

A945D1BB-68DA-4E1F-A009-94CB6AE1521B.png.f067c6f7c2529d0bbd2bdeb65ccff1f0.png

8F3DD8AF-9E9D-437B-922C-1C54EE314F53.png.adc2e896c1a153e006154c1dfd5fbc9e.png

 

 

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Just now, bluewave said:

No surprise since the ridge axis has been stuck north of Hawaii for 2 winters now. The million dollar question is how much longer this most recent stuck weather pattern will last.

A945D1BB-68DA-4E1F-A009-94CB6AE1521B.png.f067c6f7c2529d0bbd2bdeb65ccff1f0.png

8F3DD8AF-9E9D-437B-922C-1C54EE314F53.png.adc2e896c1a153e006154c1dfd5fbc9e.png

 

 

if the 50/50 isn't as strong this spring/summer we'll roast

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2 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

if the 50/50 isn't as strong this spring/summer we'll roast

Yeah, the spring into early summer pattern evolution will be important. This pattern during the summer would be just like 2010 to 2012.

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5 minutes ago, romba said:

Raging Pacific jet stream, or so I've been told, and this happened last year as well until March when the pattern finally shifted

shifts and then we have a cool/wet spring

I don't think this pattern can last forever, if it happens again next winter I will be very surprised, what's the odds of that

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