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WinterWxLuvr

Mid January/Mid February Medium/Long Range Discussion

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Just now, Wonderdog said:

I don't think that lp in Canada is helping.

EPS looked better.  But that too could be a mirage. 

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15 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

EPS looked better.  But that too could be a mirage. 

 I tell you what though. With all this energy flying around I wouldn't be surprised that if we ever do get snow it's going  to be a big one.

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Just now, Wonderdog said:

 I tell you what though. With all this energy flying around I wouldn't be surprised that if we ever do get snow it's going  to be a big one.

Agreed.  My unscientific view is we will get one good event where everything comes together.  

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7 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

So the gefs and eps are currently more supportive of a cutter?

 

7 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

Not a cutter specifically but vast majority of solutions are rainstorms. Gefs has never once liked this window either

The 0z gfs showed one reason why there weren’t a lot of regular small to medium hits in the ensembles. That track (up through eastern TN) with any cold at all would be 3-6” before a flip. And with cold that low likely transfers to the coast from there instead of tracking due north and then who knows. But the bottom line is even a track that normally with simply typical winter cold can support “some snow” isn’t even close it’s all rain. Likewise a perfect track but weak system would be rain. We need to get CCBd to death to get snow. It’s an ultimate thread the needle. 

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

 

The 0z gfs showed one reason why there weren’t a lot of regular small to medium hits in the ensembles. That track (up through eastern TN) with any cold at all would be 3-6” before a flip. And with cold that low likely transfers to the coast from there instead of tracking due north and then who knows. But the bottom line is even a track that normally with simply typical winter cold can support “some snow” isn’t even close it’s all rain. Likewise a perfect track but weak system would be rain. We need to get CCBd to death to get snow. It’s an ultimate thread the needle. 

It will probably get cold in the next couple of weeks

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The trend across all guidance overnight was for the southern stream system to leave too much behind in Mexico and eject too weak to be a player by itself...then the northern stream digs in too shallow and too late (and too far east frankly) so any phase that would happen even if it did would be too late. 

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23 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

@Ralph Wiggum there is a risk to how the pattern is evolving though. If the Hudson ridge translates east but doesn’t effect the NAO enough...the pac ridge will pull back and the AK vortex will dump a trough in the west and we will be back to an Uber eastern ridge. 

 

2 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

On the 0z EPS, after an initial shot of moderate cold into the east around the 7th, it weakens/retros  the PNA ridge and pulls the mean trough back into the central US, which looks a bit tenuous. It does appear to be building a ridge up into AK though. Still signs of improvement in the NAO domain with the TPV further west and  elongated. More waiting to see exactly how the long wave pattern evolves towards mid Feb.

Hopefully things don't go the way the 0z GEFS is suggesting. Back to square one. Or zero.

 

Oh look the central pac ridge is back across long range guidance. Why does it always seem to go right to the “I hope this doesn’t happen” thoughts I throw out there???

 

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@C.A.P.E. the cruelest irony would be if we do finally get the NAM state to improve but the central pac ridge goes ape again and counters any benefit.  It takes a REALLY strong -NAO to offset a ridge north of Hawaii. Basically the NAO ridge needs to be equal or stronger than the pac ridge or it doesn’t work. 

 

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

@C.A.P.E. the cruelest irony would be if we do finally get the NAM state to improve but the central pac ridge goes ape again and counters any benefit.  It takes a REALLY strong -NAO to offset a ridge north of Hawaii. Basically the NAO ridge needs to be equal or stronger than the pac ridge or it doesn’t work. 

 

Yeah we finally see hints of relaxation up top and the NAO moving towards neutral, and if the PAC transitions from Version 2 of total crap right back to version 1, it wont do us any good, outside of a mega block developing, which is very unlikely.

Hey we still have the CFS, steadfast in its commitment to a +PNA and a stout EPO ridge going forward. 

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17 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Too early to give up on Wed as well. The spacing between the systems could easily change to allow more dig . It's a long shot but .

The optimist in me says there are several chances coming up that just need some luck

The pessimist says “but the most likely progression if I had to bet money is suppressed, suppressed, northern stream wave north of us, then the pna ridge pulls back and we revert to the western trough eastern ridge pattern”

realistically our best shot might be in the day 10-15 period.  There is a window as the pattern shifts where cold gets ejected from the buildup in AK and we could have a shot as the pattern retrogrades.  

 

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Just now, C.A.P.E. said:

Yeah we finally see hints of relaxation up top and the NAO moving towards neutral, and if the PAC transitions from Version 2 of total crap right back to version 1, it wont do us any good, outside of a mega block developing, which is very unlikely.

Hey we still have the CFS, steadfast in its commitment to a +PNA and a stout EPO ridge going forward. 

The cfs is always playing catch up whenever there is a major shift in week 2 it takes it 2-3 days longer than the gefs and eps to see it. Of course week 2 effects weeks 3-6 lol. 

I suppose the silver lining is that we would get cold into the conus again and then we just need to get it into the east.  But we’ve said that a lot lately and I don’t remember it working out much.  Unfortunately things continue to go the way the analogs I pulled early January indicated it would.  

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@C.A.P.E. the latest cfs thinks the AO/NAO tanks and March 1960 is coming only by mid Feb. Its a legit tear worthy look. But the problem is it gets there by going a different route week 2. It never pumps the pac ridge so when the NAM state flips the cold dumps into the east.  It does that because the cfs continues to mess up the mjo.  While everything else goes into 5/6 it cycles barely through 6 back into 7 then null but close to cold phases. 

So the problem with that...do we trust the cfs over the eps/gefs/geps week 2?  Obviously not. Well at least not most of us....^_^

I’m still not canceling winter. Never did. I showed it was going to be an uphill battle to get much snow though and it has. But even if everything we are discussing goes wrong that only takes us to Feb 10. We have no idea what happens after. If the pac Ridge fades after a few days that trough could shift east and with a less hostile NAM state we could have opportunities. 

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5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@C.A.P.E. the latest cfs thinks the AO/NAO tanks and March 1960 is coming only by mid Feb. Its a legit tear worthy look. But the problem is it gets there by going a different route week 2. It never pumps the pac ridge so when the NAM state flips the cold dumps into the east.  It does that because the cfs continues to mess up the mjo.  While everything else goes into 5/6 it cycles barely through 6 back into 7 then null but close to cold phases. 

So the problem with that...do we trust the cfs over the eps/gefs/geps week 2?  Obviously not. Well at least not most of us....^_^

I’m still not canceling winter. Never did. I showed it was going to be an uphill battle to get much snow though and it has. But even if everything we are discussing goes wrong that only takes us to Feb 10. We have no idea what happens after. If the pac Ridge fades after a few days that trough could shift east and with a less hostile NAM state we could have opportunities. 

you have to forget about this winter and just see if we squeeze one storm. This winter is lost...its a bust...but even bad winters can get one snow....so thats my goal

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13 minutes ago, Ji said:

you have to forget about this winter and just see if we squeeze one storm. This winter is lost...its a bust...but even bad winters can get one snow....so thats my goal

I am chasing whatever we can get. And it’s likely not much. One storm is fine. But to get that one storm we likely need a more sustained favorable pattern than some 1-2 day mediocre window. Even in a legit good pattern our hit rate is low.  Feb 2006 we had a great block got weeks and only got one storm. Feb 2007 had a great pattern and we barely go anything out of it. We had an Uber block for a month in 2010/11 and got one storm. 2016 was a great pattern for 4 weeks and we only got one hit. Same March 2018. Even when it’s a good pattern we sometimes need 4-5 threats to get one to work. We already got lucky once this winter with a snow in a crap pattern...I’m not expecting more of that luck.  So yea I’m chasing one storm...but I’m not expecting to luck into it with some flawed or brief transient window. If we can’t get a one week + period with a legit favorable pattern it’s unlikely we get a significant snowfall. 

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1 hour ago, losetoa6 said:

Too early to give up on Wed as well. The spacing between the systems could easily change to allow more dig . It's a long shot but .

I agree with this. Will be interested to see the trends in the next 48 hrs. Would be something if this ended up being an event for someone in the sub. The trend has been more amped as we get closer to game time. However, CMC is closest with this and it's a long way off. 

I'm trying to not look to far ahead. Taking it one wave at a time. Each wave has effects on the next. Weather is very fragile. 

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Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

Oh ICON, you're cute.

Cute seems to not do it justice....

 

 

6E480E57-E1CD-46CD-BED8-9E7F517ED78B.png

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Somehow the Icons snowmap isn’t as impressive as it looked lol. Perfect run but still shows the problem of a very marginal cold airmass

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