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January 18th Event

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Just now, Solution Man said:

how much falls?

looks super light.....and then we get this...how many times do we see this

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_ma.png

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Ridge is slightly weaker on the euro vs 0z, so it’s a bit better. Just a bit better direction on the WAA precip and it would be 2-3” for MD. Just missed us and gets Philly.

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25 minutes ago, umdterps29 said:

Going to be in Deep Creek this weekend. Are they still in the game on this one, or is it looking weak out there as well? What would need to change to give a mostly snow event? Been an awful year for the ski resorts.

We've got a house out there and will be there this weekend.  Agree that this season has been pretty terrible there...probably around 20-25" so far when they average north of 110" for the year.  

Way too much would need to change for this to be all snow.  A lot of variables at play for how much frozen precip we get there (WAA precip amounts, how long the low level cold sticks around) but it does seem likely we'll see a frozen event there.  Will guess we see a little snow then sleet/ice.  Probably some rain in the afternoon, depending on how long the cold hangs on.  Once the winds shift from the NW overnight into Sunday, we'll see upslope snow showers.  

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Ill have what the weather channel is having

 

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18z 12k NAM holds serve, bit more energized than 12z. Moderate snow to start then to mix, break then freezing rain. Not bad considering where we were 24 hours ago.

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OK...this really is my last post...

So the main mid level WAA is still aimed well to our northwest but look at the secondary mid level vorticity maximum and kink in the flow aimed at/attacking the CAD in the Mid Atlantic.  This is the kind of thing the globals are not going to pick up at 4/5 days out and is a realistic option to hope for a better result.  That is what is fueling the little thump on the NAM.  

16305266_NAMd.thumb.png.8d0dd6906afb4ff053521057988dfdd0.png

Not saying it is right...we been through this dance with the NAM before...that that is a realistic way to eek out a back door win in this situation.  

 

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7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

OK...this really is my last post...

So the main mid level WAA is still aimed well to our northwest but look at the secondary mid level vorticity maximum and kink in the flow aimed at/attacking the CAD in the Mid Atlantic.  This is the kind of thing the globals are not going to pick up at 4/5 days out and is a realistic option to hope for a better result.  That is what is fueling the little thump on the NAM.  

16305266_NAMd.thumb.png.8d0dd6906afb4ff053521057988dfdd0.png

Not saying it is right...we been through this dance with the NAM before...that that is a realistic way to eek out a back door win in this situation.  

 

This is why the globals should be looked at it with a grain of salt in the medium range with CAD situations. I like to use the medium range globals to give a general pattern depiction then go on what we know to happen in these situations. Even the mesoscale models struggle. 

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Should never count things out until you see the whites of its eyes for situations like this. Around here all it takes is a glaze on roads, trees, and power lines in the 20s to have significant impacts. 

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3 minutes ago, DCAlexandria said:

at 60 hours the 3k nam is waaaaaay drier than regular nam

As per usual since 12k NAM has always had an Uber wet bias and 3k fixes that substantially.

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4 minutes ago, DCAlexandria said:

18z ICON all rain

What are you looking at? The model doesn’t show sleet/freezing rain. I’m seeing a good CAD all the way past 21z.

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18z ICON slowed the precip down a bit, However, keeps a solid CAD feature in place. Signal is there for a decent icing event. 

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3 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:

What are you looking at? Solid CAD signature in the model.

He’s looking at whatever the maps at TT tell him. He’s downplayed the whole event and is now looking for anything that will make him appear to right.

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1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

He’s looking at whatever the maps at TT tell him. He’s downplayed the whole event and is now looking for anything that will make him appear to right.

Unreal. We’ve been saying it all along about the icon on TT. Posts like that just muddle the forum.

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38 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:

18z 12k NAM holds serve, bit more energized than 12z. Moderate snow to start then to mix, break then freezing rain. Not bad considering where we were 24 hours ago.

That said, the 3K is more reliable than 12K no? 3K will be in range tommorw morning i guess

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Just now, Baltimorewx said:

That said, the 3K is more reliable than 12K no? 3K will be in range tommorw morning i guess

12k is ok, bit wet, but more so the pattern change with more vorticity leading ahead of the main system out west and a pronounced cold wedge. 

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7 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:

Unreal. We’ve been saying it all along about the icon on TT. Posts like that just muddle the forum.

Weather.us shows ice on the significant weather parameter for the icon

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