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January 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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The next 8 days are averaging 34.5degs., or 2.5 degs. AN.

Month to date is  +9.2[41.7].         Should be about +7.1[39.4] by the 26th.(good for 9th. Place)

23* here at 6am.      27* already by 9am.    30* by Noon.      Back to 26* with Snow/Evap. Cooling at 1pm.     Snow took a long break, reached 32* at 5:30pm, started again an hour ago or so.      33* at 6pm and no snow.     35* at 6:30pm.     37* at 8:00pm.

All models are about 3"---4" for today.    Starts 1pm with Snow until 6pm, then some Rain till 8pm.    After that: 'a long WAKE for winter's early demise'?

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6 hours ago, Snow88 said:

Gfs has a nice  coastal signal for next weekend 

Sure does. 

 

image.thumb.png.906f7d688d503626ed8da3f516ec4429.png

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16 hours ago, Isotherm said:

 

It is quite interesting, Chris, and I've been ruminating on some hypotheses re: the time-lag and distorted response. One issue, in my view, is base-state resonance. Sometimes the MJO/intraseasonal signal is misaligned with the base state, and as such, when it propagates through typically conducive phases, the N HEM response may not be bonafide/favorable due to the misalignment with the background indicators. For example, 2002-03 had a much more classic AAM/GWO and hadley/walker cell structures concordant with a canonical El Nino, and thus when MJO circulated to 8, we had a more genuine N HEM response.

Another issue, the PDO has become much more negative over the past month, as last winter was. This amplifies -AAM resonance and retards proper +AAM transport.

Great post, Tom. Misalignment has been a common theme recently. Last winter we saw the the Niña-like warmth in the WPAC result in the uncoupled El Niño. So we had the Niña-like ridge axis stuck north of Hawaii. This year we have experienced a continuation of that persistent ridge axis north of Hawaii. Now we are getting the amplification of the ridge in SE Canada with the Niño-like +AAM spike. But a piece of that ridge north of Hawaii holds on into the 6-10 day forecast.

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/csi-enso-case-missing-central-pacific-rainfall

047F5D4E-71C5-4E2B-BD32-E6182CCB0411.thumb.png.e3b8e57b82179293fc03b2e56b0188e8.png
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9F633AAC-0713-4E96-930F-0681E073E816.png.9cc8877963d2253547858a6fb2319be1.png

 

 

 

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8 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

Need cold air or a large enough storm to override what looks like a warm pattern next weekend

could be a rain to snow storm if it were to be a slow mover-anything fast will outrun the incoming colder air mass.   We finally get a nice track and then have no cold air!   Can't make this stuff up.    

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Enjoy the snow today as I don’t think we will see much sustained cold going forward. Looks like my idea of this getting into p8 is going to fail. We will be into p7 at the end of the month so perhaps we pull a storm off. After that we are going to head to p5/6 as the kelvin wave is getting stronger. Wash rinse repeat. 
 

The RMM plots might have been correct for the wrong reasons earlier this month but they have merit now. Just one of those winters that whatever can go wrong will go wrong. We can always pull off a storm but it will be hard with temps above normal. If we have any hope of sustained cold/snow in the second half of February we need to see the Pv weaken. 

B8392998-78CD-404F-A1DF-F7AC0A7B8267.png
Convection is always hard to predict in the future. Those looking for above normal days are about to get more. The uber Pv, -PDO, +AAM, and warm pool south of Ak were all huge players in this failed winter.

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48 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Enjoy the snow today as I don’t think we will see much sustained cold going forward. Looks like my idea of this getting into p8 is going to fail. We will be into p7 at the end of the month so perhaps we pull a storm off. After that we are going to head to p5/6 as the kelvin wave is getting stronger. Wash rinse repeat. 
 

The RMM plots might have been correct for the wrong reasons earlier this month but they have merit now. Just one of those winters that whatever can go wrong will go wrong. We can always pull off a storm but it will be hard with temps above normal. If we have any hope of sustained cold/snow in the second half of February we need to see the Pv weaken. 

B8392998-78CD-404F-A1DF-F7AC0A7B8267.png
Convection is always hard to predict in the future. Those looking for above normal days are about to get more. The uber Pv, -PDO, +AAM, and warm pool south of Ak were all huge players in this failed winter.

Another failed winter by many. What's the point of long range forecasting anymore? It's a joke.

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1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

could be a rain to snow storm if it were to be a slow mover-anything fast will outrun the incoming colder air mass.   We finally get a nice track and then have no cold air!   Can't make this stuff up.    

Bad couple of winters

Hopefully its only a small positive departure for Feb so the close in ski resorts keep it going. January was pretty brutal for them

 

 

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16 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Another failed winter by many. What's the point of long range forecasting anymore? It's a joke.

Its still just an evolving science.  The mistake made over and over again is getting vested in these LR forecasts - whether it be because we like the predicted outcome or whether we're going down with the ship while defending our own long range forecast.  We have some great posters that make clear the risks in the LR discussions.

Discouraging to see things looking bleak at this late stage - but who knows, there is still room for a decent few weeks.   Prime winter is sure getting wasted though.

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1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Enjoy the snow today as I don’t think we will see much sustained cold going forward. Looks like my idea of this getting into p8 is going to fail. We will be into p7 at the end of the month so perhaps we pull a storm off. After that we are going to head to p5/6 as the kelvin wave is getting stronger. Wash rinse repeat. 
 

The RMM plots might have been correct for the wrong reasons earlier this month but they have merit now. Just one of those winters that whatever can go wrong will go wrong. We can always pull off a storm but it will be hard with temps above normal. If we have any hope of sustained cold/snow in the second half of February we need to see the Pv weaken. 

B8392998-78CD-404F-A1DF-F7AC0A7B8267.png
Convection is always hard to predict in the future. Those looking for above normal days are about to get more. The uber Pv, -PDO, +AAM, and warm pool south of Ak were all huge players in this failed winter.

Do you think that March will be kind to us similar to last year and most March months this decade?

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41 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Another failed winter by many. What's the point of long range forecasting anymore? It's a joke.

In all honesty it has never been very accurate. You has a lot of the cold biased forecasters appear to be great in the 2010s  because the decade as a whole was very snowy, not because they are better at long ranger forecasting. They are still making the same calls but you realize now that many of them are not panning out. Many pro Mets did call for a warmer than average and less snow than average this winter but many ignore them. We even had some posters here call for warmer and less snow than average. I called for warmer but average to just above average snowfall which I think can still happen. 

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4 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

In all honesty it has never been very accurate. You has a lot of the cold biased forecasters appear to be great in the 2010s  because the decade as a whole was very snowy, not because they are better at long ranger forecasting. They are still making the same calls but you realize now that many of them are not panning out. Many pro Mets did call for a warmer than average and less snow than average this winter but many ignore them. We even had some posters here call for warmer and less snow than average. I called for warmer but average to just above average snowfall which I think can still happen. 

Best post in the thread.  Confirmation bias is a terrible thing, lol.  

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Gfs isnt far off for next weekend. Just need the low to pass under the area. It then shows another chance after that.

The MJO is key. We have to see if the Euro and GFS are wrong.

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42 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

In all honesty it has never been very accurate. You has a lot of the cold biased forecasters appear to be great in the 2010s  because the decade as a whole was very snowy, not because they are better at long ranger forecasting. They are still making the same calls but you realize now that many of them are not panning out. Many pro Mets did call for a warmer than average and less snow than average this winter but many ignore them. We even had some posters here call for warmer and less snow than average. I called for warmer but average to just above average snowfall which I think can still happen. 

Absolutely! AccuWeather was spot on this winter. they said mild and below normal snow

And frankly we had posters on here that kept insisting it was a cold pattern After it became obvious this was just another transient shot

There will be more transient shots between AN temps and hopefully That plays to our advantage with snow

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Just now, NYCweatherNOW said:

Bro winter isn’t over how are they right?

January will end up at least +5, December was AN. Unless February is -6, winter will be warmer than normal. 

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Just now, NYCweatherNOW said:

Bro winter isn’t over how are they right?

You have 6 good weeks. Next week looks torchy (storm possibility aside)

Down to 5 weeks. If you notice it’s dark past 5 PM now, we have about two weeks left before the average temperature starts going back up.

 

Anything can happen. But you clearly have a marginal pattern and you start running out the clock

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6 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

You have 6 good weeks. Next week looks torchy (storm possibility aside)

Down to 5 weeks. If you notice it’s dark past 5 PM now, we have about two weeks left before the average temperature starts going back up.

 

Anything can happen. But you clearly have a marginal pattern and you start running out the clock

I understand that but it’s not over, this is when it snows the most late January until early March. 

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2 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

I understand that but it’s not over, this is when it snows the most late January until early March. 

You surely realize you are the biggest weenie on all of the weather boards right? All snow all the time for you.

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5 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Take with a grain of salt, but CFS weekly still looks good! Probably cause only model going to phase 8

It has been consistent 

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9 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

I understand that but it’s not over, this is when it snows the most late January until early March. 

Its def not over.  It's stupid to think so.

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