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January 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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8 hours ago, Snow88 said:

No sign of changing ? What are you looking at ?

Perhaps this?

833BEF8A-FB4A-4858-956B-7CA06DB18C74.jpeg

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This MJO just keeps getting more extreme. You can see all the guidance shifting to more of a phase 7 look around the 20th.


 

71C363BE-2406-41A7-B193-813C8070F452.gif.19c1df3a1e9309ba5b1785f740e07091.gif

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4F2B653A-9285-4D22-9EAD-F2AFD1F58F16.thumb.png.7b1df7bdf68f826b64ca7c1ea801e45a.png
 

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5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This MJO just keeps getting more extreme. You can see all the guidance shifting to more of a phase 7 look around the 20th.


 

71C363BE-2406-41A7-B193-813C8070F452.gif.19c1df3a1e9309ba5b1785f740e07091.gif

That should eventually get to phase 8 instead of curling into the COD. 

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I don't get what all the panic is this sub is about...I just looked at the almanac and y'all have been like +1 until yesterday...normal NYC fluctuations, and yes they are quite warm at times but that's what the new climate looks like. 

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28 minutes ago, dWave said:

lol I was wondering where the hell did it go. Vanished at the Hudson river. Does look like just north of the city may of got a little something. At the GWB though it just fell apart.

Temp is 66 but dewpoint falling into the 50s, with a few breaks in the clouds.

May have been here.  I got .25”.

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29 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

We have never seen a prolonged stretch of warm weather like this. We have never seen temperatures close to 70° at night in the middle of January.

walk outside right now in shorts and a T-shirt sun is coming out to our west… You have never seen anything like this before on January 11 

 

I don’t know what the rest of the winter holds, but this stretch of January weather has been simply unprecedented. It is time to stop comparing this to previous warm winters and acknowledge we are in a new league now.

The cooler week ahead features temperatures at least 10° above normal with two days in the mid 50s. That is the big cool down coming tonight. Unprecedented

 

 

I've seen winters like this before. 

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7 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

That’s a great GFS 6z run as far is this weekend shows warning snows everywhere

gfs_asnow_neus_28.png

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3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Why are you posting long range snowfall maps beyond the range of the GFS?

huh ? I posted an hour 162 map - less then a week away - plus GFS as been very consistent with this threat for several days now

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11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The GFS still has a cold bias at that time range. You can see the Euro had less. Looks like a front end thump potential than change to rain scenario at the coast. The storm still ends up going to our west. 
 

 

 

 

The euro has had an amped bias all winter. Can it be right? Sure but look what happened with the last 2 storms.

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2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Those GFS snowfall maps have been terrible beyond a few days all season.

And the Euro  has also been terrible beyond 5 days. Heck , every model has been awful.

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Just now, bluewave said:

Those GFS snowfall maps have been terrible beyond a few days all season.

they will not show exact totals BUT still gives you an idea that there is a threat for accumulating snow - since you are critical of their output - what exactly do you predict for next weekend ??

 

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Just now, bluewave said:

The Euro and EPS wasn’t amped enough with today’s storm. Remember when it had the warm front getting stuck in CNJ last week.

No clue what has happened with the Euro and EPS but ever since the upgrade, both has been awful.

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2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We will be transitioning from phase 5 to phase 6 over the next week. So the SE ridge will still be a player. This means that the storm will probably front end thump to rain. The GFS and CMC will have too much of a cold bias at those ranges. So the snowfall forecasts will probably be to heavy. 

Transitioning from 6 -7 this weekend on the 18th -19th

71C363BE-2406-41A7-B193-813C8070F452.gif.19c1df3a1e9309ba5b1785f740e07091.gif

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25 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

they will not show exact totals BUT still gives you an idea that there is a threat for accumulating snow - since you are critical of their output - what exactly do you predict for next weekend ??

 

Ill take nothing on the ground in NYC post storm if I was putting $$ down

 

 

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46 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said:

I don't get what all the panic is this sub is about...I just looked at the almanac and y'all have been like +1 until yesterday...normal NYC fluctuations, and yes they are quite warm at times but that's what the new climate looks like. 

In December that was true, but so far January is about a +9, not even factoring in today.

Personally I'd just like temperatures to get back close to seasonal. It's plenty cold enough this time of year, especially in the HV where I reside, for snow if we could just get back to seasonal norms for a nice stretch.

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12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

There is still a lag with the MJO. So there are often some lingering elements from the previous phase near transitions.

71C363BE-2406-41A7-B193-813C8070F452.gif

so now you are saying the short range MJO analyses is incorrect along with the long range beyond day 10 ??????

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3 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

Ill take nothing on the ground in NYC post storm if I was putting $$ down

 

 

taking into consideration all of what falls will be washed away by the changeover to rain ?

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2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

so now you are saying the short range MJO analyses is incorrect along with the long range beyond day 10 ??????

No that’s not what he is saying. When you’re between phases you can still have effects of the previous phase. You can have a bit of lag 

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9 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

so now you are saying the short range MJO analyses is incorrect along with the long range beyond day 10 ??????

Go back and read the papers that were posted about MJO lags. Why do you think the CPC has something called lagged composites. The changes take time to manifest especially  when we are seeing record amplitude. Short range analysis is fine if you take all the factors and biases into account. There is often overlap during transitions from one phase to the other.

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At this time I’d rather have the GFS show me snow than the euro. Snow is coming guys for sure! The question is it going to be huge amounts or just average is still to be answered.

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01BBCBC6-B3BA-434E-89BA-64B22F1462CC.png

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13 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Go back and read the papers that were posted about MJO lags. Why do you think the CPC has something called lagged composites. The changes take time to manifest especially  when we are seeing record amplitude. Short range analysis is fine if you take all the factors and biases into account. There is often overlap during transitions from one phase to the other.

Great educational nugget for me, thank you.  And my sincere request for everyone: Please keep posts respectable and don't troll.  This isn't the place for it.  I am here to learn and expand my knowledge.  Not here to witness childish drama.  Thanks.  We all share a passion for weather and let's keep that front and center. 

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2 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

Great educational nugget for me, thank you.  And my sincere request for everyone: Please keep posts respectable and don't troll.  This isn't the place for it.  I am here to learn and expand my knowledge.  Not here to witness childish drama.  Thanks.  We all share a passion for weather and let's keep that front and center. 

This paper discusses the lag with the MJO.

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/MWR-D-15-0434.1?mobileUi=0&

This study examined contemporaneous relationships between MJO phase and New England snowstorms. Thousands of kilometers separate these features, so we do not imply that the MJO’s effect is instantaneous. Rather, the MJO’s typical phase speed dictates that the MJO goes through one WH phase every 5–7 days, so some lag from the previous phase is implicit in our composites.

This increase in East Coast troughing is also associated with cold air advection in the Northeast, enhancing baroclinicity (Moon et al. 2012). Given the MJO’s typical phase speed, the 7–10-day lag from phase 6 found by these previous studies is consistent with the contemporaneous signal we see in phases 7 and 8.

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14 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This paper discusses the lag with the MJO.

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/MWR-D-15-0434.1?mobileUi=0&

This study examined contemporaneous relationships between MJO phase and New England snowstorms. Thousands of kilometers separate these features, so we do not imply that the MJO’s effect is instantaneous. Rather, the MJO’s typical phase speed dictates that the MJO goes through one WH phase every 5–7 days, so some lag from the previous phase is implicit in our composites.

This increase in East Coast troughing is also associated with cold air advection in the Northeast, enhancing baroclinicity (Moon et al. 2012). Given the MJO’s typical phase speed, the 7–10-day lag from phase 6 found by these previous studies is consistent with the contemporaneous signal we see in phases 7 and 8.

Fascinating to say the least, thank you!! 

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9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Here is a great paper.

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/MWR-D-15-0434.1?mobileUi=0&

This study examined contemporaneous relationships between MJO phase and New England snowstorms. Thousands of kilometers separate these features, so we do not imply that the MJO’s effect is instantaneous. Rather, the MJO’s typical phase speed dictates that the MJO goes through one WH phase every 5–7 days, so some lag from the previous phase is implicit in our composites.

Nice article but we don't live in southeastern NE - any article relating to Northern Mid-Atlantic snowstorms ?

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I am not sure why there is so much negativity, almost every model is showing the biggest snowfall of the season next weekend (yes it will change to rain but baby steps) and then after that they get cold. Not every storm will be snow for the coast of course but there are signs of it at least getting more interesting. 

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todays ao is over plus 4sd and might drop to near neutral around the 20th...same for the nao...that could be a window how ever small for a snowstorm...I thought 1936-37 was a good analog for last year but it might turn out better for this year...January 1936 was a torch...February less of a torch...March was cold..snowfall was light...1936 had a 6" snowfall between warmth on January 20th...

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